A Nickel Short: Rethinking Element Scarcity in Pursuit of a Fusion-Powered World

Abstract

Fusion energy presents a promising solution for current global decarbonization goals. This thesis presents an adaptable model for evaluating mineral sufficiency in the global deployment of fusion power. Using the ARC Magnetic Confinement (MC) Deuterium-Tritium (D-T) fusion concept as a framework, this research integrates mineral usage estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) with MIT Energy Initiative’s (MITEI) energy production forecasts by generation technology. Using MITEI’s $2,800/kW cost scenario for fusion power generation, the model situates the demand for fusion-critical minerals within the broader context of growing mineral needs driven by the clean energy transition, and offers specific, quantitative insights into mineral sufficiency risks. The study finds that beryllium will face significant shortages solely due to fusion demand, with resource exhaustion projected to occur within 40 years. When accounting for additional demands from Electric Vehicles (EVs), battery storage, and transmission infrastructure, chromium and nickel are projected to exhaust economically extractable reserves within 21 to 35 years at current prices. The research further reveals that for nine of the thirty elements evaluated, over 50% of production is concentrated in a single country, and for half of the minerals China is the largest producer, introducing geopolitical risks. Notably, at just 13 kg per reactor, the demand for Rare Earth Elements (REEs) is not exposed to a significant risk, even without the top producing country. The research also surfaces current reactor designs and strategies which could help mitigate each identified risk.