In-or-Out: Creators’ Odyssey for Success

Abstract

The creator economy is flourishing, driven by shifts in advertising budgets and a surge in the supply of content creators. This has introduced a new challenge for firms: identifying which early-stage creators will grow to become stars. By identifying future stars, firms can choose who to invest their scarce resources in. They may also be able to purchase effective influence at a (proportionately) lower price than what they will pay once a creator becomes a star. Past research has shown that predicting which content will become viral is challenging. Instead, we focus on using content to predict which early-stage creators will grow their follower bases. We measure both the positioning of a creator’s early content and how the creator adjusts this positioning. We find that the initial position is not predictive of future success. However, subsequent adjustments in position are predictive, particularly if the creator’s initial follower base has grown consistently, rather than over a short period of rapid (viral) growth. Our insights inform the construction of predictive models that outperform baseline models in out-of-sample predictions of which creators will grow their followers the fastest.