Expanding home broadband coverage through existing Low Earth Orbit megaconstellations

Abstract

Expanding broadband access to underserved areas continues to be a significant challenge for Internet Service Providers (ISPs). While its services perform well in high-density regions, they face scalability limitations in sparsely populated areas where infrastructure costs must be spread across a smaller customer base. This study explores the potential of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite megaconstellations as a scalable solution for extending broadband coverage in the United States. By analyzing the technical capabilities, deployment timelines, and economic feasibility of partnering with LEO satellite providers, this research offers a strategic framework for integrating satellite broadband into ISPs service portfolio.

A customer demand model identifies approximately 17 million unserved households within the addressable market of one of the largest U.S. telecommunications companies. The business case assessment evaluates broadband profitability by optimizing customer base size relative to proximity to existing infrastructure. While fiber optics remains the most profitable solution in high-density areas and fixed wireless access effectively utilizes excess 5G capacity, both require substantial infrastructure investment, limiting their feasibility for rural broadband expansion. In contrast, a satellite broadband partnership emerges as the most cost-effective solution for at least 1 million households, surpassing the profitability of currently existing offerings. With minimal capital investment, satellite technology enables rapid customer acquisition and scalable nationwide expansion. The analysis highlights that wholesale agreements play a critical role in profitability and the need to secure a minimum revenue share of 16.5% to reach the break-even point.

Performance modeling and curve approximation techniques estimate that if Kuiper meets Federal Communications Commission (FCC) deployment milestones, it could serve 8.5 million customers by 2026, with full nationwide coverage projected by 2029. Under a 200x oversubscription model, Kuiper’s total subscriber capacity could scale to 32.8 million, demonstrating its ability to complement current broadband o!erings. While LEO broadband networks can achieve capacities in the tens of Tbps, they remain far below fiber networks, which operate in the thousands of Tbps. Rather than competing directly, satellite broadband is positioned as a complementary solution, addressing connectivity gaps in rural and underserved regions.

To capitalize on these findings, this study recommends leveraging existing LEO megaconstellations to expand broadband coverage nationwide. A phased rollout should begin with a beta program in California, the state with the highest number of unserved households, to validate network performance and optimize deployment for broader expansion. Partnering with an existing LEO megaconstellation could e!ectively bridge the digital divide in rural areas, expand service offerings, and enable a stronger position in the growing satellite broadband market.