Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for using business and organizational scenario-planning techniques for regional strategic transportation-planning purposes. The paper provides a brief history of scenario planning as it emerged from business-strategic planning activities and gives an overview of its goals and limitations. The paper then reviews the context for scenario planning in regional transportation planning as well as precedents of its application in this field. The paper continues with a presentation of a scenario-planning framework for transportation as refined and applied to the Houston metropolitan area. The major findings and lessons from this application are discussed, together with conclusions and observations regarding further potentials and refinements. Key Words: metropolitan transportation planning; scenario planning; forecasting; Houston, Texas