An Exit Strategy from the Covid-19 Lockdown based on Risk-sensitive Resource Allocation

Abstract

We propose an exit strategy from the COVID-19 lockdown, which is based on a risk-sensitive levels of social distancing. At the heart of our approach is the realization that the most effective, yet limited in number, resources should protect those at high risk rather than applied uniformly across the population. By generalizing the SEIR model to mixed populations, and based on existing data in Israel, we present an analysis of the maximal load on the health system and the total mortality. We argue that risk-sensitive resource allocation combined with risk-sensitive levels of social distancing enables to lower the overall mortality toll in parallel to resumption of economic activity.