Works of Nazli Choucri: Recent submissions

Now showing items 184-186 of 224

    • Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects 

      Choucri, Nazli (© Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd., 1974)
      The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) ...

    • The international petroleum exchange model: Reference results and validation 

      Choucri, Nazli (© Elsevier B.V., 1980-06)
      The author describes the IPE model and compares its main results with the data for 1970–1978. The model's results are close to the actual consumer-import demand for those years. The model's forecasts of the future demand ...

    • Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics 

      Choucri, Nazli; Electris, C.; Goldsmith, D.; Mistree, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; e.a. (IEEE, 2006-03-04)
      The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of ...