https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141461 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:36:59 GMT 2026-04-10T20:36:59Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/165055 Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli Mounting concerns about safety and security have resulted in an intricate ecosystem system of guidelines, compliance measures, directives and policy reports for cybersecurity of all critical infrastructure. The policy paradox is that the text form of policy documents is an impediment to the implementation of policies and directives and creates potentially powerful opportunity costs. As a general practice, guidelines, directives and policy documents are presented in text form, page-by-page and word-by-word all supported by figures, diagrams and tables as needed. By definition text obscures properties of both policy and system-target in terms of dynamic relationships, feedback, “drill-down”, leads and lags, and so forth. The challenge is to develop analytics for cybersecurity policy of cyber physical systems. We begin with constructing (a) a structured system model of the system, in order to (b) identify major policydefined system-wide parameters, (c) situate system vulnerabilities, (d) map security requirements to security objectives, and (e) advance research on how system properties respond to diverse policy controls for security of cyber physical systems. This Project addresses the hard problem of policy-governed secure collaboration related to cyberphysical security of critical infrastructure (focusing on a generic and fundamental feature, namely smart grid of electric power systems). The purpose is to (a) reduce, if not eliminate barriers to full understanding of policy text as transmitted by the source, (b) explore system-wide or targeted implications, (c) help contextualize generic directives for specific applications, and (d) facilitate contingency analysis, as needed. This Compilation is based on the Quarterly Research Reports submitted by MIT to the Cyber- Physical Systems Organization of Vanderbilt University. The Compilation is the first of several Reports highlighting the research process and products of the MIT Project on Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems. Gaurav Agarwal [a.k.a. Gaurav], MIT alumnus, served as Lead Researcher for the Proof-of-Concept case presented here. Tue, 08 Oct 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/165055 2024-10-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148068 Politics of Global Environmental Change: A Conceptual Framework Choucri, Nazli "The emergence of climate change in the international political agenda is of recent origin. The possibility of environmental changes induced by human action is a relatively new factor in both the conduct and the study of international relations. It is now recognized that technological development, interacting with population trends and patterns of resource uses worldwide, has created problems of a global nature and globalized problems that had earlier been more local or regional in character. Not only do we live in an interdependent world but in an increasingly global one. This paper presents key conceptual and theoretical issues central to prospects for coordinated international responses and presents some empirical evidence. A major concern is depicting the characteristic requisites, conditions, and processes for managing the global environment as well as the principles for environmental management." Mon, 01 Jul 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148068 1991-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147089 Population, Technology, and Resources in the Future International System Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert Wed, 01 Sep 1971 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147089 1971-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146917 Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are embedded in an increasingly complex ecosystem of cybersecurity policies, guidelines, and compliance measures designed to support all aspects of operation during all phases of system’s life cycle. By definition, such guidelines and policies are written in linear and sequential text form—word after word—often with different directives parts presented in different documents. This situation makes it difficult to integrate or understand policy-technology-security interactions. As a result, it also impedes effective risk assessment. Individually or collectively, these features inevitably undermine initiatives for cybersecurity. Missing are fundamental policy analytics to support CPS cybersecurity and facilitate policy implementation. This project is designed to develop a set of text-to-analytics methods and tools—for policy directives and for CPS properties—and provide a “proof of concept” focused on the smart grid of electric power systems. Wed, 14 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146917 2022-12-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146916 Analytics for Cybersecurity Policy of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Guidelines, directives, and policy statements are usually presented in “linear” text form—word after word, page after page. However necessary, this practice impedes full understanding, obscures feedback dynamics, hides mutual dependencies and cascading effects and the like—even when augmented with tables and diagrams. The net result is often a checklist response as an end in itself. All this creates barriers to intended realization of guidelines and undermines potential effectiveness. We present a solution strategy using text as “data”, transforming text into a structured model, and generate network views of the text(s), that we then can use for vulnerability mapping, risk assessments, and control point analysis. For proof of concept, we draw on NIST conceptual model and analysis of guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity, more than 600 pages of text. Mon, 14 Nov 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146916 2022-11-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146915 Ethics in Artificial Intelligence: Toward Foundations for Global Policy Choucri, Nazli Matters of ethics are becoming more salient at all levels of politics, almost everywhere. In the scientific community, ethics in AI is increasingly gaining attention. The fact is that the rate of change in AI innovations and applications are growing much faster than our general appreciation or understanding of content or of consequences. There is a large variety of statements, but few ethical practices by countries, corporations, and individuals that are desirable in the ethics domain for the broad area of Artificial intelligence. Occurring far less frequently—if at all—are the operational applications of ethics codes in the innovation, practice, and policy of AI. To date, the focus of attention is on scientific and technical advances, as well as enhanced computational advances. Wed, 21 Dec 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146915 2022-12-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146914 Resource Scarcity and National Security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli Chapter 7 of New Perspectives for a Changing World Order (1991, American Association for the Advancement of Science) Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146914 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144184 Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli This chapter examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the conse- quences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error. ln so doing, we shall draw upon our recent investigations into the long-range causes of international conflict. Our objective, during the past several years, has been to develop systematic procedures for isolating the determinants of international violence. The general approach we have employed is one common to any econometrician concerned with the analysis of time series data, or any statistician examining the properties of small samples. But our applications of these methods are not common to political analysis. Economists, for example, appear to know much more about the nature of market systems, business cycles, inflation, and so forth, than political analysts know about conflict and warfare, arms races, lateral pressure, or international alignments. Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144184 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144159 Cyberspace Operations Functional Capability Reference Architecture from Document Text Moulton, Allen; Madnick, Stuart. E.; Choucri, Nazli The COMET project applies structured text analysis, semantic similarity and ontology learning theory, along with NLP to investigate automated and semi-automated methods for extracting knowledge from text policy documents and transforming that knowledge into a structured form for use in a Functional Capability Reference Architecture (FCRA) for cyberspace operations. Progress and results are reported. Cyber-physical systems are increasingly significant to modern life. In the military, the advent of net-centric systems means that virtually all operations critically depend on computers and networks (Williams, 2014). The operation of the electric power grid is moving in the same direction (GAO, 2019) as are most other industries. As Choucri and Clark (2019) document, cyberspace has also become increasingly intertwined in international politics. To make cyber- physical systems more effective and to protect from threats that put critical services at risk, organizations rely on policy documents which are written from different perspectives often using different terminology. In many cases, terminology is metaphorical such as maneuver, attack and defense, which draw on analogies to concepts from physical domain military operations. A FCRA will support knowledge transfer across different subject areas and organizations by harmonizing and clarifying concepts (Cloutier et al., 2010). Tue, 01 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144159 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144065 Social Contract for the AI Age Dukakis, Michael; Vīķe-Freiberga, Vaira; Cerf, Vint; Choucri, Nazli; Lagumdzija, Zlatko; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Patterson, Thomas; Pentland, Alex; Rotenberg, Marc; Silbersweig, David Just as earlier social contracts helped shape societies for a common purpose, the Social Contract for the AI Age has a transformative vision, one that transcends the technological features of artificial intelligence and seeks to provide foundations for a new society. Consider, for example, how the Covid-19 pandemic urgently requires a new society with new structure and order, approach — new ways to share data and coordinate action, accelerated social reliance on digital service across businesses, education, and government services. The Social Contract for the AI Age would create standards for a new international system. It focuses on the conduct of each nation, relations with international business and not for profit entities, and the cooperation of nations. Just as TCP / IP is the platform for communication among internet users, the Social Contract for AI Age is a platform for connection among governments, stakeholders, and private and public institutions. Wed, 09 Sep 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144065 2020-09-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144064 The concept of AI-government: Core concepts for the design of AI-government Dukakis, Michael; Tuan, Nguyen Anh; Choucri, Nazli; Patterson, Thomas E-Government is the use of communication and information technology for improving the performance of public sector agencies. AI-Government transcends E-Government by applying AI to assist decision making for all critical public sector functions – notably provision of public services, performance of civic functions, and evaluation of public officials. At the core of AI- Government is the National Decision making and Data Center (NDMD). NDMD collects, stores, analyzes, and applies massive amounts of data relevant to the provision of public services and the evaluation of public programs and officials. It does not replace governance by humans or human decisional processes but guides and informs them, while providing an objective basis for service provision and evaluation. Mon, 25 Jun 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144064 2018-06-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144063 The AIWS 7-Layer Model to Build Next Generation Democracy Dukakis, Michael; Choucri, Nazli; Cytryn, Allan; Jones, Alex; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Patterson, Thomas; Reveron, Derek; Silbersweig, David The Artificial Intelligence World Society (AIWS) is a set of values, ideas, concepts and protocols for standards and norms whose goal is to advance the peaceful development of AI to improve the quality of life for all humanity. It was conceived by the Michael Dukakis Institute for Leadership and Innovation (MDI) and established on November 22, 2017. The World Leadership Alliance – Club de Madrid (WLA-CdM) and the Boston Global Forum (BGF) are partnered with the MDI to collaborate and develop the AIWS initiative. The President of WLA-CdM, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, serves as co-chair of AIWS activities and conferences along with Governor Michael Dukakis. The Next Generation Democracy (NGD) is an initiative founded by WLA-CdM with the goal of “enabling democracy to meet the expectations and needs of all citizens and preserve their freedom and dignity while securing a sustainable future.” NGD is a collaboration and forum, coordinated by WLA-CdM. AIWS has partnered with WLA-CdM to promote the development of AI to support the Next Generation Democracy initiative. To align the development of AI with the NGD initiative, the AIWS has developed the AIWS 7-Layer Model. This model establishes a set of responsible norms and best practices for the development, management, and uses of AI so that this technology is safe, humanistic and beneficial to society. In developing the 7-Layer Model, the AIWS recognizes that we live in a chaotic world with differing, and sometimes conflicting, goals, values and concepts of norms. Hence, the Model is aspirational and even idealistic. Nonetheless, it provides a baseline for guiding AI development to ensure positive outcomes and to reduce the risks of pervasive and realistic risks and the related harms that AI could pose to humanity. The Model is based on the assumption that humans ultimately accountable for the develop0ment and use of AI, and must therefore preserve that accountability. Hence, it stresses transparency of AI reasoning, applications, and decision making, which will lead to auditability and validation of the uses of AI systems. Thu, 26 Apr 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144063 2018-04-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144062 Institutions for Cyber Security: International Responses and Data Sharing Initiatives Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E; Koepke, P. Almost everyone recognizes the salience of cyberspace as a fact of daily life. Given its ubiquity, scale, and scope, cyberspace has become a fundamental feature of the world we live in and has created a new reality for almost everyone in the developed world and increasingly for people in in the developing world. This paper seeks to provide an initial baseline, for representing and tracking institutional responses to a rapidly changing international landscape, real as well as virtual. We shall argue that the current institutional landscape managing security issues in the cyber domain has developed in major ways, but that it is still “under construction.” We also expect institutions for cyber security to support and reinforce the contributions of information technology to the development process. We begin with (a) highlights of international institutional theory and an empirical “census” of the institutions-in-place for cyber security, and then turn to (b) key imperatives of information technology-development linkages and the various cyber processes that enhance developmental processes, (c) major institutional responses to cyber threats and cybercrime as well select international and national policy postures and so critical for industrial countries and increasingly for developing states as well, and (d) the salience of new mechanisms designed specifically in response to cyber threats. This is update and expansion of a paper that has been published in the Information Technology for Development, 2013, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02681102.2013.836699#.Unfi8eKiJO8. DOI: 10.1080/02681102.2013.836699 Tue, 01 Aug 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144062 2017-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142889 Knowledge Networking for Technology Leapfrogging Choucri, Nazli Globalization imposes new demands and new opportunities in access to knowledge and its applications. Knowledge networking can accelerate this access and the sharing of information about technology choices. Developing countries thus can “leapfrog” directly to “frontier” technologies which are more effective, cleaner, and less costly than the usual infrastructure. To seek these benefits, Professor Nazli Choucri of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Political Science offers a “no-risk” strategy for knowledge networking, technology advancement and capacity-building. Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142889 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141777 Lost in cyberspace: Harnessing the Internet, international relations, and global security Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel Early in the twenty-first century, new, cyber-based threats to the well-being of individuals, economies, and societies added a new dimension to the well-understood threats of the twentieth century. For the first time in human history, advances in information and communications technologies are potentially accessible to much of the world’s population. These Internet based advances allow almost anyone to disseminate messages, meaning that a wide range of actors, state and nonstate, have the potential to disrupt networks and commerce with relatively little fear of discovery. In cyberspace, it is hard to know with certainty what is behind a particular action—and actions in one place can have effects around the world. A powerful example of how advances in cyberspace have changed the national security environment is the deployment of Stuxnet, a complex piece of malicious software that reportedly damaged the uranium enrichment facilities of Iran’s nuclear program (Broad and Sanger, 2010). Both Israel and the United States have been blamed as creators of the virus, but in part because of the nature of cyberspace, the origin of the software remains in dispute.1 Another apparent case of international relations conducted in cyberspace were the 2007 cyber attacks that overwhelmed the websites of prominent Estonian organizations, including public-sector agencies, banks, and media firms. Some Estonian officials blamed Russia for the attacks, but responsibility was never proved. Similarly, in 2010 Google announced that it and a variety of high-tech, security, and defense firms had been targeted in an attempt, apparently originating in China, to gain access to and steal valuable digitized information. The episode resulted in a temporary shutdown of Google’s China site. Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141777 2012-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141774 Cyber international relations as an integrated system Vaishnav, Chintan; Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D International Relations (IR) – whether in pursuit of wealth or power – have been traditionally predicated upon the dominance of the State and the effectiveness of geographical boundaries. The Internet has shattered these assumptions. Consequently, the properties of information goods such as information security, control, or freedom, or those of international activities such as trade, or diplomacy must be framed in the context of emergent behaviors of a system where the Cyberspace interacts with traditional IR. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and International Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call Cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) System, and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods of engineering systems. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodology. We begin by identifying important actors in Cyberspace and IR, and the core functions they perform for their respective systems. In doing so, we disambiguate important questions of system boundary. We then create a domain structure matrix (DSM) of the interdependencies among the core functions of the various actors. This method enables us to integrate the domains of Cyberspace and IR that we then examine in two ways. First, we qualitatively analyze DSM to show how Cyber-IR is characterized by the activities of multiple actors who are interdependent in various ways, and who are highly heterogeneous in their roles and capabilities. Second, we perform quantitative analysis using several matrix-based techniques to illustrate and verify how certain core functions are more important than others, and why attributes such as geographical location, economic status, etc., of the actor shape their influence in Cyber- IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors, and the various outcomes that could result from it. Mon, 18 Jun 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141774 2012-06-18T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141773 Experiences and challenges with using CERT data to analyze international cyber security. Madnick, Stuart E.; Li, Xitong; Choucri, Nazli With the increasing interconnection of computer networks and sophistication of cyber attacks, it is important to understand the dynamics of such situations, especially in regards to cyber international relations. The Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard Project is an initiative to gather worldwide cybersecurity data publicly provided by nation-level Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) and to provide a set of tools to analyze the cybersecurity data. The unique contributions of this paper are: (1) an evaluation of the current state of the diverse nation-level CERT cybersecurity data sources, (2) a description of the Data Dashboard tool developed and some interesting analyses from using our tool, and (3) a summary of some challenges with the CERT data availability and usability uncovered in our research. Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141773 2009-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141769 Cyber international relations as an integrated system Vaishnav, Chintan; Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and Interna- tional Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call the cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) system and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods common to science and engineering systems adapted here for the social sciences. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodol- ogy. This paper (a) identifies the actors and functions in the core systems, Cyberspace, and IR, (b) disambiguates sys- tem boundary, (c) creates a design structure matrix (DSM), a matrix of the interdependencies among functions of actors, (d) analyzes DSM qualitatively to show multiple interdependent and heterogeneous Cyber-IR properties, and (e) analyzes quantitatively the differential importance of core functions as well as the impact of actor attributes on influence in Cyber-IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors and the various outcomes that could result from it. Fri, 17 Nov 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141769 2017-11-17T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141768 Institutions for cyber security: International responses and global imperatives Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Ferwerda, Jeremy Almost everyone recognizes the salience of cyberspace as a fact of daily life. Given its ubiquity, scale, and scope, cyberspace has become a fundamental feature of the world we live in and has created a new reality for almost everyone in the developed world and increasingly for people in the developing world. This paper seeks to provide an initial baseline, for representing and tracking institutional responses to a rapidly changing international landscape, real as well as virtual. We shall argue that the current institutional landscape managing security issues in the cyber domain has developed in major ways, but that it is still “under construction.” We also expect institutions for cyber security to support and reinforce the contributions of information technology to the development process. We begin with (a) highlights of international institutional theory and an empirical “census” of the institutions-in-place for cyber security, and then turn to (b) key imperatives of information technology-development linkages and the various cyber processes that enhance developmental processes, (c) major institutional responses to cyber threats and cyber crime as well as select international and national policy postures so critical for industrial countries and increasingly for developing states as well, and (d) the salience of new mechanisms designed specifically in response to cyber threats. Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141768 2013-10-22T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141765 What is cybersecurity? Explorations in automated knowledge generation Choucri, Nazli; Elbait, Gihan Daw; Madnick, Stuart E. This paper addresses a serious impediment to theory and policy for cybersecurity: Trivial as it might appear on the surface, there is no agreed upon understanding of the issue, no formal definition, and not even a consensus on the mere spelling of the terms –– so that efforts to develop policies and postures, or capture relevant knowledge are seriously hampered. In this context, we present a “proof of concept” for a new research strategy based on a close examination of a large corpus of scholarly knowledge, and the extent to which it enables us to generate new knowledge about cybersecurity of relevance to international relations and to national security relevant to the nation’s security and to international relations. Given the new cyber realities, this paper is also a “proof” of how to create new knowledge through automated investigations of the record to date. Tue, 06 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141765 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141758 Perspectives on cybersecurity: A collaborative study Choucri, Nazli; Jackson, Chrisma 1. Cybersecurity – Problems, Premises, Perspectives 2 An Abbreviated Technical Perspective on Cybersecurity 3 The Conceptual Underpinning of Cyber Security Studies 4 Cyberspace as the Domain of Content 5 DoD Perspective on Cyberspace 6 China’s Perspective on Cyber Security 7 Pursuing Deterrence Internationally in Cyberspace 8 Is Deterrence Possible in Cyber Warfare? 9 A Theoretical Framework for Analyzing Interactions between Contemporary Transnational Activism and Digital Communication Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141758 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141757 Integrating cyberspace and international relations: The co-evolution dilemma Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D Cyberspace is a fact of daily life. Until recently cyberspace was considered largely a matter of low politics – the term used to denote background conditions and routine decisions and processes. By contrast high politics is about national security, core institutions, and decision systems that are critical to the state, its interests, and its underlying values. We now see cyberspace shaping the domain of high politics, and high politics shaping the future of cyberspace. The field of international relations, rooted in 20th century issues and theories, has not kept pace with the emerging significance of cyberspace. This paper addresses what we call the co-evolution dilemma: as cyberspace and international politics now start to shape each other, we have few conceptual anchors to fully identify, let alone model, the potential collision of law, policy and practice in the cyber arena with shared norms, common practices, and modes of interactions in international relations that have evolved over time. At a minimum, we need to develop a map of the joint domain of cyberspace and international relations. Our purpose here is to (1) develop an alignment strategy to connect the Internet, the core of cyberspace, and international relations (2) introduce the control point analysis, a method we have developed to explicate dynamics among cyber-actors, in terms of their relative power and influence, and (3) highlight critical co-evolution parameters embedded in the fabric of world politics. Tue, 06 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141757 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141755 Resilient mechanism design foundations for governance of cyberspace: Exploration in theory, strategy, and policy Micali, Silvio; Choucri, Nazli; Chen, Jing; Williams, Cindy Three related trends in world politics – shifting in power relations, increased diversity of actors and entities, and the growing mobilization and politicization of global constituencies are contributing to a global “tussle” which threatens to erupt in a full-fledged international confrontation. Such contests may well reinforce the potentially powerful cleavages, such as those that became evident before, during, and after the World Conference on Information Technology, WCIT-2012. If present trends continue, it is unlikely that WCIT-2013 will reduce the cleavages and resolve the contentions. We would like to thank Professor Lucas Stanczyk, Department of Political Science, MIT, for comments on an earlier version. Sun, 01 Sep 2013 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141755 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141754 Exploring terms and taxonomies relating to the cyber international relations research field: Or are "cyberspace" and "cyber space" the same? Camiña, Steven; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Woon, Wei Lee This project has at least two facets to it: (1) advancing the algorithms in the sub-field of bibliometrics often referred to as "text mining" whereby hundreds of thousands of documents (such as journal articles) are scanned and relationships amongst words and phrases are established and (2) applying these tools in support of the Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) research effort. In international relations, it is important that all the parties understand each other. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. As an example, when we started, we assumed that "cyberspace" and "cyber space" were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between "cyber" and "space") and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the taxonomies that would be constructed by our algorithms using "cyberspace" and "cyber space" as seed terms would be basically the same. As it turned out, they were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cyber international relations is so new, understanding the field and how people think about (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal as part of the overall ECIR project. Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141754 2011-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141753 The dynamics of undersea cables: Emerging opportunities and pitfalls Sechrist, Michael; Vaishnav, Chintan; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli Cyberspace is built on physical foundations that support the “virtual” manifestations we know of and use in everyday computing. Physical infrastructure can include wired, fiber optic, satellite and microwave links, as well as routing equipment. An often overlooked but critical part of the Internet infrastructure is undersea communication cable links. Undersea cables are the technology of choice to move large amounts of data around the world quickly. In the U.S., approximately 95% of all international Internet and phone traffic travel via undersea cables. Nearly all government traffic, including sensitive diplomatic and military orders, travels these cables to reach officials in the field. The problem, however, is that the undersea cable infrastructure is susceptible to several types of vulnerability, including: rising capacity constraints, increased exposure to disruption from both natural and mad-made sources, and emerging security risks from cable concentration in dense geographical networks (such as New York and New Jersey, and places like Egypt/Suez Canal.) Moreover, even under normal working conditions, there is a concern whether governance-as-usual can keep up with the future growth of Internet traffic. In this paper, we explore the impact of these problems on the dynamics of managing undersea cable infrastructure. Thu, 26 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141753 2012-07-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141752 Comparative analysis of cybersecurity metrics to develop new hypotheses Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Li, Xitong; Ferwerda, Jeremy Few Internet security organizations provide comprehensive, detailed, and reliable quantitative metrics, especially in the international perspective across multiple countries, multiple years, and multiple categories. As common refrain to justify this situation, organizations ask why they should spend valuable time and resources collecting and standardizing data. This report aims to provide an encouraging answer to this question by demonstrating the value that even limited metrics can provide in a comparative perspective. We present some findings generated through the use of a research tool, the Explorations in Cyber Internet Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard. In essence, this dashboard consists of a simple graphing and analysis tool, coupled with a database consisting of data from disparate national-level cyber data sources provided by governments, Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs), and international organizations. Users of the dashboard can select relevant security variables, compare various countries, and scale information as needed. In this paper, using this tool, we present an example of observations concerning the fight against cybercrime, along with several hypotheses attempting to explain the findings. We believe that these preliminary results suggest valuable ways in which such data could be used and we hope this research will help provide the incentives for organizations to increase the quality and quantity of standardized quantitative data available. Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141752 2011-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141751 Towards better understanding cybersecurity: Or are "cyberspace" and "cyber space" the same? Madnick, Stuart E.; Camiña, Steven; Choucri, Nazli; Woon, Wei Lee Although there are many technology challenges and approaches to attaining cybersecurity, human actions (or inactions) also often pose large risks. There are many reasons, but one problem is whether we all “see the world” the same way. That is, what does “cybersecurity” actually mean – as well as the many related concepts, such as “cyberthreat,” “cybercrime,” etc. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. If we are to have an effective solution, it is important that all the parties understand each other – or, at least, understand that there are different perspectives. For the purpose of this poster and to demonstrate our methodology, we consider the case of the words, “cyberspace” and “cyber space.” We had developed techniques and algorithms for the automated generation of taxonomies for chosen “seed terms” (such as “cyberspace” and “cyber space”) based on the co-occurrence of those words in the list of keywords of documents in large document repositories, such as Compendex and Inspec. The system that we had developed and used in this experiment employed the Heymann algorithm, closeness centrality, cosine similarity metric (which we refer to as H-CC). When we started, we assumed that “cyberspace” and “cyber space” were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between “cyber” and “space”) and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the usage of these words would be basically the same and would produce roughly similar taxonomies. As it turned out, the taxonomies generated were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cybersecurity is so new, understanding the field and how people think about it (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal. Our approach helps to illuminate these understandings. Sat, 15 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141751 2012-12-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141750 Explorations in cyber international relations (ECIR)—data dashboard report #1: CERT data sources and prototype dashboard system Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Camiña, Steven; Fogg, Erik; Li, Xitong; Woon, Wei Lee Growing global interconnection and interdependency of computer networks, in combination with increased sophistication of cyber attacks over time, demonstrate the need for better understanding of the collective and cooperative security measures needed to prevent and respond to cybersecurity emergencies. The Exploring Cyber International Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard project is an initial effort to gather and analyze such data within and between countries. This report describes the prototype ECIR Data Dashboard and the initial data sources used. In 1988, the United States Department of Defense and Carnegie Mellon University formed the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) to lead and coordinate national and international efforts to combat cybsersecurity threats. Since then, the number of CERTs worldwide has grown dramatically, leading to the potential for a sophisticated and coordinated global cybersecurity response network. This report focuses primarily on the current state of the worldwide CERTs, including the data publicly available, the extent of coordination, and the maturity of data management and responses. The report summarizes, analyses, and critiques the worldwide CERT network. Additionally, the report describes the ECIR team's Data Dashboard project, designed to provide scholars, policymakers, IT professionals, and other stakeholders with a comprehensive set of data on national-level cybersecurity, information technology, and demographic data. The Dashboard allows these stakeholders to observe chronological trends and multivariate correlations that can lead to insight into the current state, potential future trends, and approximate causes of global cybersecurity issues. This report summarizes the purpose, state, progress, and challenges of developing the Data Dashboard project. Disclaimer: This report relies on publicly available information, especially from the CERTs’ pubic web sites. They have not yet been contacted to confirm our understanding of their data. That will be done in subsequent phases of this effort. Mon, 10 Aug 2009 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141750 2009-08-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141749 System dynamics modeling for pro-active intelligence Anderson, Ed; Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael; Sturtevant, Dan The Pro-Active Intelligence (PAINT) program, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was formed to address the challenges1 posed by distributed human networks, including terrorists and insurgencies, both independent and state-sponsored. In particular, certain threats (including emerging dual-use technologies) are difficult to detect using traditional intelligence means because: (a) indicators are difficult to discern and may give little warning time, (b) there is usually limited relevant data collection and integration capability, and (c) expertise is generally diverse and disconnected. Over the course of 18 months from September 2007 to February 2009, an effort, led by researchers from MIT, was initiated to develop computational social science models to study and understand the dynamics of complex intelligence targets for nefarious technology activities (broadly defined as activities outside U.S. national interest). System dynamics models were developed because they offered great opportunities to (a) understand and represent determinants of nefarious technology development, (b) to identify aspects of critical pathways, such as resource management, towards the development of nefarious technologies, and (c) support a modeling based strategy for the identification of new sources of intelligence. This report describes the “System Dynamics Modeling for Pro-Active Intelligence” effort and its two thrusts: (a) development of a comprehensive holistic system dynamics model to represent, understand, and differentiate nefarious and benign activities and (b) the development of a detailed system dynamics resource model that can be used as a component of a multi-method federation of models. In both cases, simulations were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of these models in demonstrating system behavior and, on occasion, highlighting potentially counter-intuitive behaviors. Final Report: Proactive Intelligence (PAINT) CONTRACT FA8750-07-C-0101 ISSUED BY AFRL/IFKE CODE FA8750 6. ADMINISTERED BY CODE N62879 USAF, AFMC AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY 26 ELECTRONIC PARKWAY ROME NY 13441-4514 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141749 2009-11-04T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141746 Cyber Acquisition: Policy Changes to Drive Innovation in Response to Accelerating Threats in Cyberspace Klemas, Thomas; Lively, Rebecca K.; Choucri, Nazli The United States of America faces great risk in the cyber domain because our adversaries are growing bolder, increasing in number, improving their capabilities, and doing so rapidly. Meanwhile, the associated technologies are evolving so quickly that progress to harden and secure this domain is ephemeral, as systems reach obsolescence in just a few years and revolutionary paradigm shifts, such as cloud computing and ubiquitous mobile devices, can pull the rug out from the best laid defensive planning by introducing entirely new regimes of operations. Contemplating these facts in the context of Department of Defense acquisitions is particularly sobering, because many cyber capabilities, bought within the traditional acquisition framework, may be of limited usefulness by the time that they are delivered to the warfighters. Thus, it is a strategic imperative to improve DoD acquisitions pertaining to cyber capabilities. This paper proposes novel ideas and a framework for addressing these challenges. Wed, 14 Nov 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141746 2018-11-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141745 Accelerating Cyber Acquisitions: Introducing a Time-Driven Approach to Manage Risks with Less Delay Klemas, Thomas; Atkins, Sean; Lively, Rebecca K.; Choucri, Nazli The highly dynamic nature of the cyber domain demands that cyber operators are capable of rapidly evolving and adapting with exquisite timing. These forces, in turn, pressure acquisition specialists to accoutre cyber warfighters to keep pace with both cyber domain advancement and adversary progression. However, in the Department of Defense (DoD), a vigorous tug of war exists between time and risk pressures. Risk reduction is a crucial element of managing any complex enterprise and this is particularly true for the DoD and its acquisition program [1]. This risk aversion comes at significant cost, as obsolescence by risk minimization is a real phenomenon in DoD acquisition programs and significantly limits the adaptability of its operational cyber forces. Our previous research generated three recommendations for reforming policy to deliver performance at the “speed of relevance” [3]. In this paper we focus on one of the recommendations: “Manage rather than avoid risk—especially time-based risks”. While this advice can apply to many areas of human endeavor, it has elevated urgency in cyberspace. Incomplete risk metrics lead to overly conservative acquisition efforts that imperil timely procurement of advanced cyber capabilities and repel innovators. Effective cyber defense operations require acquisition risk models to be extended beyond fiscal and technical risk metrics of performance, to include risks associated with the cost of failing to meet immediate mission requirements. This paper proposes a time-shifting approach to simultaneously (a) accelerate capability delivery while maintaining traditional rigor, and (b) achieve optimal balance between fiscal, performance, and time risks. Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141745 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141744 CyberIR@MIT: Knowledge for Science, Policy, Practice Choucri, Nazli; Fairman, Lauren; Agarwal, Gaurav This paper presents a brief introduction to CyberIR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. CyberIR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (see ecir.mit.edu) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions. The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation—embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with search and retrieval functions. Sat, 09 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141744 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141743 Policy-Governed Secure Collaboration: Toward Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber- Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav; Koutsoukos, Xenofon Mounting concerns about safety and security have resulted in an intricate ecosystem of guidelines, compliance measures, directives and policy reports for cybersecurity of all critical infrastructure. By definition, such guidelines and policies are written in linear sequential text form that makes them difficult to integrate, or to understand the policy-technology-security interactions, thus limiting their relevance for science of security. We propose to develop text-to-analytics methods and tools focusing on CPS domains such as smart grids. Tue, 13 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141743 2018-03-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141742 Complexity of International Law for Cyber Operations Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Policy documents are usually written in text form—word after word, sentence after sentence, page after page, section after section, chapter after chapter—which often masks some of their most critical features. The text form cannot easily show interconnections among elements, identify the relative salience of issues, or represent feedback dynamics, for example. These are “hidden” features that are difficult to situate. This paper presents a computational analysis of Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations, a seminal work in International Law. Tallinn Manual 2.0 is a seminal document for many reasons, including but not limited to, its (a) authoritative focus on cyber operations, (b) foundation in the fundamental legal principles of the international order and (c) direct relevance to theory, practice, and policy in international relations. The results identify the overwhelming dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, the Rules with autonomous standing (that is, not connected to the rest of the corpus), and highlight different aspects of Tallinn Manual 2.0, notably situating authority, security of information -- the feedback structure that keeps the pieces together. This study serves as a “proof of concept” for the use of computational logics to enhance our understanding of policy documents. Sat, 09 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141742 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141741 Complexity of International Law for Cyber Operations Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Policy documents are usually written in text form—word after word, sentence after sentence etc.— which often obscures some of their most critical features. Text cannot easily situate interconnections among elements, or identify feedback, nor reveal other embedded features. This paper presents a computational approach to International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations 2.0, Tallinn Manual, a seminal work of 600 pages at the intersection of law and cyberspace. The results identify the dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, and Rules with autonomous standing, as well as the feedback structure that holds the system together. None of these features are evident from the text alone. Mon, 08 Nov 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141741 2021-11-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141740 Securing the Long-Chain of Cyber-Physical Global Communication Infrastructure Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Executive Order, May 2019 states: November 5, 2019 “...foreign adversaries are increasingly creating and exploiting vulnerabilities in information and communications technology and services ... in order to commit malicious cyber-enabled actions, including economic and industrial espionage against the United States and its people.” [1] This paper focuses on the challenges of securing the long chain of global communication infrastructure, presents some illustrative data, and puts forth a multi-method research design for analysis of long-chain systems of information and/or communications technology, infrastructure, services, ownership, providers, and networks -- within a state and outside its jurisdiction – all essential for unimpeded global operations. A proof of concept for data requirements to support end-to-end integrated research is provided, along with highlights of some initial empirical analysis, with China as a case in point. Tue, 05 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141740 2019-11-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141739 The Theory of Lateral Pressure: Highlights of Quantification and Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli The term lateral pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of states, firms, and other entities to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. This chapter presents the core features—assumptions, logic, core variables, and dynamics—and summarizes the quantitative work undertaken to date. Some aspects of the theory analysis are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Initially applied to the causes of war, the theory focuses on the question of: Who does what, when, how, and with what consequences? The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers (i.e., the master variables that shape the profiles of states) through the intervening variables (i.e., aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities), and the outcomes often generate added complexities. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries, driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations, they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics that lead to hostilities, escalation, and eventually conflict and violence. The quantitative analysis of lateral pressure theory consists of six distinct phases. The first phase began with a large-scale, cross- national, multiple equation econometric investigation of the 45 years leading to World War I, followed by a system of simultaneous equations representing conflict dynamics among competing powers in the post–World War II era. The second phase is a detailed econometric analysis of Japan over the span of more than a century and two World Wars. The third phase of lateral pressure involves system dynamics modeling of growth and expansion of states from 1970s to the end of the 20th century and explores the use of fuzzy logic in this process. The fourth phase focuses on the state-based sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to endogenize the natural environment in the study of international relations. The fifth phase presents a detailed ontology of the driving variables shaping lateral pressure and their critical constituents in order to (a) frame their interconnections, (b) capture knowledge on sustainable development, (c) create knowledge management methods for the search, retrieval, and use of knowledge on sustainable development and (d) examine the use of visualization techniques for knowledge display and analysis. The sixth, and most recent, phase of lateral pressure theory and empirical analysis examines the new realities created by the construction of cyberspace and interactions with the traditional international order. Thu, 27 Jul 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141739 2017-07-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141738 Analytics for Smart Grid Cybersecurity Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Guidelines, directives, and policy statements are usually presented in “linear” text form – word after word, page after page. However necessary, this practice impedes full understanding, obscures feedback dynamics, hides mutual dependencies and cascading effects and the like, -- even when augmented with tables and diagrams. The net result is often a checklist response as an end in itself. All this creates barriers to intended realization of guidelines and undermines potential effectiveness. We present a solution strategy using text as “data”, transforming text into a structured model, and generate a network views of the text(s), that we then can use for vulnerability mapping, risk assessments and control point analysis. We apply this approach using two NIST reports on cybersecurity of smart grid, more than 600 pages of text. Here we provide a synopsis of approach, methods, and tools. (Elsewhere we consider (a) system-wide level, (b) aviation e- landscape, (c) electric vehicles, and (d) SCADA for smart grid). Tue, 25 Apr 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141738 2017-04-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141737 Framework for Global Accord on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Choucri, Nazli Advances in information and communication technologies – global Internet, social media, Internet of Things, and a range of related science-driven innovations and generative and emergent technologies – continue to shape a dynamic communication and information ecosystem for which there is no precedent. These advances are powerful in many ways. Foremost among these in terms of salience, ubiquity, pervasiveness, and expansion in scale and scope is the broad area of artificial intelligence. They have created a new global ecology; yet they remain opaque and must be better understood— an ecology of “knowns” that is evolving in ways that remain largely “unknown.” Especially compelling is the acceleration of Artificial Intelligence – in all its forms – with far-ranging applications shaping a new global ecosystem for which there is no precedent. This chapter presents a brief view of the most pressing challenges, articulates the logic for worldwide agreement to retain the rule of law in the international system, and presents salient features of an emergent International Accord on Artificial Intelligence. The Framework for Artificial Intelligence International Accord (AIIA) is an initial response to this critical gap in the system of international rules and regulations. Sat, 09 Jul 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141737 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141724 The role of cyberspace in international relations: A view of the literature Reardon, Robert; Choucri, Nazli This paper reviews the literature on cyber international relations of the previous decade. The review covers all journal articles on the role of cyberspace and information technology that appeared in 26 major policy, scholarly IR, and political science journals between the years 2001- 2010. The search yielded 49 articles, mostly from policy journals. The articles are sorted into five distinct issue areas: global civil society, governance, economic development, the effects on authoritarian regimes, and security. The review identifies, and discusses the significance of three unifying themes throughout all of the articles: efforts to define the relevant subject of analysis; cyberspace’s qualitatively transformative effects on international politics, particularly the empowerment of previously marginalized actors; and, at the highest analytic level, efforts to theoretically capture the mutually embedded relationship between technology and politics. These themes can help guide future research on cyber international relations, and focus attention on ways that debates within each of the five distinct issue areas are interconnected, and can be usefully approached using a unified conceptual framework. Sun, 01 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141724 2012-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141709 The evolution of network based cybersecurity norms: An analytical narrative Basuchoudhary, Atin; Choucri, Nazli We examine coordination dilemmas in cybersecurity policy by using an already developed evolutionary game theoretical model [2]. We suggest that norms to encourage network based security systems may not evolve independently of international governance systems. In fact, certain kinds of state action may actually further discourage the evolution of such norms. This paper therefore suggests that specific system-wide cybersecurity systems will be more effective than network-specific security. We build on established analytical frameworks to develop a cumulative understanding of the dynamics at hand. This would allow us, in due course, to extend the contributions of evolutionary game theory to cybersecurity problems. Wed, 13 Aug 2014 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141709 2014-08-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141706 Improving interdisciplinary communication with standardized cyber security terminology: A literature review Ramirez, Robert; Choucri, Nazli The growing demand for computer security, and the cyberization trend, are hallmarks of the 21st century. The rise in cyber-crime, digital currency, and e-governance has been well met by a corresponding recent jump in investment in new technology for securing computers around the globe. Business and government sectors have begun to focus effort on comprehensive cyber security solutions. With this effort has emerged a need for greater collaboration between research and industry fields. Despite much effort, there is still too little cross-disciplinary collaboration in the realm of computer security. This paper reviews the new trends, contributions, and identifiable limitations in cyber security research. We argue that these limitations are due largely to the lack of interdisciplinary cooperation required to address a problem that is clearly multifaceted. We then identify a need for further refinement of standard cyber security terminology to facilitate interdisciplinary cooperation, and propose guidelines for the global Internet multistakeholder community to consider when crafting such standards. We also assess the viability of some specific jargon, including whether cyber should be a separate word when used as a descriptor (e.g. cyber-crime or cybercrime), and conclude with recommendations for terminology use when writing papers on cyber security or the new broader field of all things relating to cyberspace, which has recently been dubbed Cybermatics, a term we also examine and propose alternatives to. By furthering the effort to standardize cyber security terminology, this paper lays groundwork for cross-disciplinary collaboration, interaction between technical and nontechnical stakeholders, and drafting of universal Internet governance laws. Mon, 21 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141706 2016-03-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141704 Who controls cyberspace? Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D When Wikileaks released hundreds of thousands of Iraq War logs and diplomatic cables in 2010, a horrified US government sprang into action—but the classified information the government hoped to keep from public view quickly migrated to overseas servers, ensuring that it would likely never be suppressed. After an anti-Islamic movie trailer was posted on YouTube in 2012, the horrified Pakistani government rushed to block its nation’s access to the Internet video service—and, in the process, temporarily disrupted YouTube access around the world. Toward the beginning of the Egyptian revolution, the government of Hosni Mubarak tried to quell the cyber-based aspect of the protest by turning off the Internet, but that effort did little to alter the course of the revolt. China, however, continued to block searches for the terms “Egypt” and “Arab Spring,” with at least some success. Until recently, cyberspace was considered largely a matter of low politics, the term political scientists use to denote background conditions and routine decisions and processes. Over the last decade, though, cyberspace, with the Internet at its core, has clearly begun to shape the domain of high politics—that is, the national security considerations, core institutions, and decision systems that are critical to national governments. Those governments have long held a monopoly on high politics and are, in turn, trying to control the future of cyberspace, with, at best, very limited success. The field of international relations, rooted in 20th-century issues and theories, has not kept pace with the emerging significance of cyberspace; and as the empowered non-state groups and individuals of cyberspace and international politics now simultaneously shape one another, the potential collisions of law, policy, and practice have barely been identified. Before the international community can begin to minimize the negative consequences of those inevitable collisions, it needs to understand how and where cyberspace and international relations intersect and influence one another, and who controls those intersections. Sun, 01 Sep 2013 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141704 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141689 The convergence of cyberspace and sustainability Choucri, Nazli This paper highlights the emerging synergy between cyberspace (a new arena of interaction) and sustainability (a new initiative on the global agenda), and their convergence on the global policy agenda. This convergence is at the conjunction of two processes, the growing pressures for transitions toward sustainability in the real context of human interactions; and the expanded, cyber-enabled opportunities for the pursuit of goals and objectives. This convergence, unexpected as it was, is a result mainly of the properties of cyberspace as we know it and those of sustainability as we seek to frame it. Reinforced by the role of knowledge in international forums, both cyberspace and sustainability are relative newcomers to international relations theory, policy, and practice. Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141689 2012-04-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141686 Co-evolution of cyberspace and international relations: New challenges for the social sciences Choucri, Nazli Created by human ingenuity, cyberspace is a fact of daily life. Until recently, this arena of virtual interaction was considered largely a matter of low politics— the routine, background, and relatively non-contentious. Today cyberspace and its uses have vaulted into the highest realm of high politics – the most salient and contentious forms of interaction. We now appreciate that cyber capabilities are also a source of vulnerability, posing potential threats to national security, and disturbing the familiar and traditional international order. The expansion of cyber access has already influenced the Westphalian-anchored international system in powerful ways. This paper argues that the construction of cyberspace is creating new challenges for the social sciences, the full nature of still remains to be fully understood -- perhaps even calling into question some of its most basic assumptions. We frame these challenges with reference to co- evolution of the new cyber domain and the traditional international system, and then focus more specifically on the emergent synergy between two independent features of the contemporary world order -- cyberspace (an arena of interaction) and sustainability (a policy imperative), and their convergence on the global policy agenda It is no surprise that sustainability is closely connected to security – or alternatively that security is contingent on sustainability. By extension, cyber security is derivative, in that is refers to security in the cyber domain. Sun, 13 Oct 2013 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141686 2013-10-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141673 Introduction Choucri, Nazli Mon, 05 Dec 2016 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141673 2016-12-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141672 Cyberpolitics in international relations Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 2013 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141672 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141671 Emerging trends in cyberspace: Dimensions and dilemmas Choucri, Nazli Mon, 01 Aug 2016 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141671 2016-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141670 Cyberpolitics Choucri, Nazli Thu, 15 May 2014 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141670 2014-05-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141667 Building global digital supply chain hub by cybersecurity commitment: Singapore's strategic role in the digital age Huang, Keman; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli Digital trade is growing in importance: it contributed to 10% of the global GDP in the last decade by enabling cross-border e-commerce. However, accompanied by sustained digital innovations, weak cybersecurity is becoming a growing threat to digital trading. Unfortunately, there are no global rules for managing digital trade, let alone rules to address challenges to cybersecurity issues in the domain of digital trade. An international effort to develop a global standardized cyber code is not a luxury for digital trade. It is a necessity. Concerns surrounding cybersecurity in digital trade are global in scale and scope. The diversified circumstances and inconsistent actions that can lead to different outcomes, sometimes become a source of provocation, and even result in international conflicts. Fragmented efforts to manage various cybersecurity threats can also increase, instead of reduce cyber risks in all digital trade. Mon, 19 Oct 2020 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141667 2020-10-19T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141666 The New Normal Choucri, Nazli As vast as cyberspace is, so too are the threats, exploits and damages that seem to multiply by the day through this network of computer interconnections around the globe — elements that are shaping a new normal which is not yet fully understood. Tue, 13 Jun 2017 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141666 2017-06-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141624 Explorations in international relations: Final program report Choucri, Nazli In international relations, the traditional approaches to theory and research, practice, and policy were derived from experiences in the 19th and 20th centuries. But cyberspace, shaped by human ingenuity, is a venue for social interaction, an environment for social communication, and an enabler of new mechanisms for power and leverage. Cyberspace creates new condition — problems and opportunities — for which there are no clear precedents in human history. Already we recognize new patterns of conflict and contention, and concepts such as cyberwar, cybersecurity, and cyberattack are in circulation, buttressed by considerable evidence of cyber espionage and cybercrime. The research problem is this: distinct features of cyberspace — such as time, scope, space, permeation, ubiquity, participation and attribution — challenge traditional modes of inquiry in international relations and limit their utility. The interdisciplinary MIT-Harvard ECIR research project explores various facets of cyber international relations, including its implications for power and politics, conflict and war. Our primary mission and principal goal is to increase the capacity of the nation to address the policy challenges of the cyber domain. Our research is intended to influence today’s policy makers with the best thinking about issues and opportunities, and to train tomorrow’s policy makers to be effective in understanding choice and consequence in cyber matters. Accordingly, the ECIR vision is to create an integrated knowledge domain of international relations in the cyber age, that is (a) multidisciplinary, theory-driven, technically and empirically; (b) clarifies threats and opportunities in cyberspace for national security, welfare, and influence;(c) provides analytical tools for understanding and managing transformation and change; and (d) attracts and educates generations of researchers, scholars, and analysts for international relations in the new cyber age. Version 1.2 Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141624 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141623 2014 ECIR Workshop on"Cyber Security & the Governance Gap: Complexity, Contention, Cooperation" Choucri, Nazli This workshop focuses on the dynamics shaping these dual features—cyber threats and cyber governance—while also taking into account operational, pragmatic, and normative aspects, as well as potential policy responses. At the core is “nature of the gap” between the two—all from different perspectives: people as users; business and industry; states and governments; and the international community, private and public—everywhere. The question is which trend will dominate: threats to cyber security or the expansion of cyber governance? Does that matter? If so how? If not, why not? Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Cyber Security & the Governance Gap: Complexity, Contention, Cooperation," January 6–7, 2014, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Mon, 06 Jan 2014 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141623 2014-01-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141622 2012 ECIR Workshop on "Who Controls Cyberspace? A Puzzle for National Security and International Relations" Choucri, Nazli This Workshop proceeds from the assumption that we have as yet no overarching and complete accounting of who controls what, when, and how, nor do we fully understand what are the precise points of control, where they are currently located and where the future ones might be placed. Accordingly, the Workshop is based on first principles, namely, cyber-ecosystems, power in “real” and cyber contexts, and introduce control point analysis. Then it turns to specific control features from four different perspectives: (a) people as users; (b) business and industry; (c) states and governments; and (d) the international community, private and public – across different regions of the world. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Who Controls Cyberspace? A Puzzle for National Security and International Relations," November 6–7, 2012, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Fri, 07 Dec 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141622 2012-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141621 2011 ECIR Workshop on "People, Power and CyberPolitics" Choucri, Nazli The People, Power, and CyberPolitics Conference is a joint project of MIT and Harvard University on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR). Co-sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, this workshop is the second in a series of sustained deliberations and explorations involving leading individuals in academia, government and business. The outcome of the workshop will be a new understanding of emergent dimensions of cyberpolitics with respect to (i) the evolving pressures on policy and theory, and (ii) the methods and techniques of exploring current conditions and understanding the contours of potential futures. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "People, Power and CyberPolitics," December 7–8, 2011, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141621 2011-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141620.2 2010 ECIR Workshop on "Cyber International Relations: Emergent Realities of Conflict and Cooperation" Choucri, Nazli An event of the MIT-Harvard multidisciplinary Minerva Project on "Explorations in Cyber International Relations" (ECIR), this conference seeks to adjust traditional views to the cyber realities of the 21st century. Of the many questions shaping world politics today, few are as daunting as Who Controls Cyberspace? Clear as it might appear, this question is deceptively simple, even elusive. It obscures other hidden or implicit aspects, namely, who can control cyberspace, who will control, and who should control cyberspace. However framed, the issue of control is closely tied to matters of scale and scope as well as authority and legitimacy – and most certainly intent and capacity. Our vision is to create new understandings of these realities that help: Highlight alternative perspectives and policies as well as institutional requirements; Clarify threats and opportunities in cyberspace for national security, welfare, and influence; Provide analytical tools for understanding and managing transformation and change; and Attract and educate a new generation of researchers, scholars, and analysts. We hope to develop an integrated approach to international relations and help frame cyber theory and practice for the 21st century. Most important of all, we seek to provide foundations for an integrated view of international relations. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Cyber International Relations: Emergent Realities of Conflict and Cooperation," October 13–14, 2010, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Wed, 13 Oct 2010 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141620.2 2010-10-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141618 The dynamics of managing undersea cables: When solution becomes the problem Sechrist, Michael; Vaishnav, Chintan; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli In the U.S., approximately 95% of all international Internet and phone traffic travels via undersea cables. Nearly all government traffic, including sensitive diplomatic and military orders, travels these cables to reach officials in the field.The problem, however, is that the undersea cable infrastructure is susceptible to several types of vulnerability, including: rising capacity constraints, increased exposure to disruption from both natural and mad-made sources, and emerging security risks from cable concentration in dense geographical networks (such as New York and New Jersey, and places like Egypt/ Suez Canal.) Moreover, even under normal working conditions, there is a concern whether governance-as-usual can keep up with the future growth of Internet traffic. In this work, we explore the impact of these problems on the dynamics of managing undersea cable infrastructure. Poster presented in the workshop on “Who Controls Cyberspace,” MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States, November 6-7, 2012. Tue, 06 Nov 2012 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141618 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141608 Comparative analysis of cybersecurity metrics to develop new hypotheses Fisher, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Li, X.; Ferwerda, J. Few Internet security organizations provide comprehensive, detailed, and reliable quantitative metrics, especially in the international perspective across multiple countries, multiple years, and multiple categories. Organizations ask why they should spend valuable time and resources collecting and standardizing data. This report aims to provide an encouraging answer to this question by demonstrating the value that even limited metrics can provide in a comparative perspective. We present some findings generated through the use of the Explorations in Cyber Internet Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard. In essence, this dashboard consists of a simple graphing and analysis tool, coupled with a database consisting of data from disparate national-level cyber data sources provided by governments, Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs), and international organizations. Users of the dashboard can select relevant security variables, compare various countries, and scale information as needed. In this paper, we present an example of observations concerning the fight against cybercrime, along with several hypotheses attempting to explain the findings. We believe that these preliminary results suggest valuable ways in which such data could be used and we hope this research will help provide the incentives for organizations to increase the quality and quantity of standardized quantitative data available. Poster presented in the workshop on “People, Power, and CyberPolitics,” MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States, December 7–8, 2011. Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141608 2011-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141604 Lateral pressure in international relations: Concept and theory Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Sun, 01 Jan 1989 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141604 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141603 Megacities and global accord Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141603 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141602 System dynamics modeling for Pro-Active intelligence (PAINT) Anderson, Ed; Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Sturtevant, Dan The Pro-Active Intelligence (PAINT) program, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was formed to address the challenges1 posed by distributed human networks, including terrorists and insurgencies, both independent and state-sponsored. In particular, certain threats (including emerging dual-use technologies) are difficult to detect using traditional intelligence means because: (a) indicators are difficult to discern and may give little warning time, (b) there is usually limited relevant data collection and integration capability, and (c) expertise is generally diverse and disconnected. Over the course of 18 months from September 2007 to February 2009, an effort, led by researchers from MIT, was initiated to develop computational social science models to study and understand the dynamics of complex intelligence targets for nefarious technology activities (broadly defined as activities outside U.S. national interest). System dynamics models were developed because they offered great opportunities to (a) understand and represent determinants of nefarious technology development, (b) to identify aspects of critical pathways, such as resource management, towards the development of nefarious technologies, and (c) support a modeling based strategy for the identification of new sources of intelligence. This report describes the “System Dynamics Modeling for Pro-Active Intelligence” effort and its two thrusts: (a) development of a comprehensive holistic system dynamics model to represent, understand, and differentiate nefarious and benign activities and (b) the development of a detailed system dynamics resource model that can be used as a component of a multi-method federation of models. In both cases, simulations were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of these models in demonstrating system behavior and, on occasion, highlighting potentially counter-intuitive behaviors. Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141602 2009-02-02T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141601 Knowledge networking for global sustainability: New modes of cyberpartnering Choucri, Nazli Mon, 01 Jan 2001 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141601 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141600 Population and the global environment Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141600 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141599 International conflict processes: A system view Choucri, Nazli Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141599 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141598 International non–alignment: Quantitative perspectives on the Afro–Asian variant Choucri, Nazli Mon, 01 Jan 1973 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141598 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141597 International political economy: A theoretical perspective Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 1980 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141597 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141596 Population, resources, technology, and environment: Trends and implications Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Jan 1984 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141596 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141595 The reality of theory: reflections and reassessment Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Jan 1989 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141595 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141594 Analytical and behavioral perspectives: Causes of war and strategies for peace Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141594 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141593 Roots of war: The master variables Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Thu, 01 Jan 1987 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141593 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141592 Dimensions of national security: The case of Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Brown, J. W.; Haas, P. M. Mon, 01 Jan 1990 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141592 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141591 Population and the international system: Some implications for United States policy and planning Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Fri, 01 Jan 1971 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141591 1971-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141590 Population dynamics and social inquiry: Some methodological imperatives Choucri, Nazli Mon, 01 Jan 1973 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141590 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141589 Demographic changes in the Middle East: New factors in regional politics Choucri, Nazli Tue, 01 Jan 1980 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141589 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141588 Migration to the Middle East Choucri, Nazli Wed, 01 Jan 1986 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141588 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141587 Population and (in)security: National perspectives and global imperatives Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141587 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141586 Demography, migration, and security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli Wed, 01 Jan 1997 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141586 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141535.2 The global environment & multinational corporations Choucri, Nazli Global companies must forge a partnership to manage the environment. The fact of human intervention in ecological processes is not in doubt. Despite uncertainties and continued controversy, human influences on the global environment appear significant. It is no longer plausible to defer including environmental factors in corporate strategies until scientific consensus is reached. But among environmentalists and policy makers, the responses to environmental change have emphasized underlying processes such as energy use and population growth, largely ignoring institutions, agents, and markets. This omission could impede innovation and forestall prospects for managing the world's environment. Mon, 01 Apr 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141535.2 1991-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141585 Energy and development: Fossil fuels in developing countries Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jun 1984 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141585 1984-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141584 International exchanges of alternative energy sources: Technology, price, and management Choucri, Nazli Sat, 01 Jan 1977 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141584 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141583 Environment, development, and international assistance: Crucial linkages Choucri, Nazli Wed, 01 Jan 1992 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141583 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141582 Energy consumption and transition dynamics to a sustainable future under a rentier economy Kaya, Abdullah; Choucri, Nazli; Tsai, I-Tsung; Mezher, Toufic Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141582 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141581 The political logic of sustainability Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jan 1999 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141581 1999-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141580 Corporate strategies toward sustainability Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Jan 1995 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141580 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141579 Environmentalism Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141579 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141578 Global accord: Imperatives for the twenty-first century Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141578 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141577 Multinational corporations and the global environment Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141577 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141576 Growth, development, and environmental sustainability: Profile and paradox Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141576 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141575 Introduction: Theoretical, empirical, and policy perspectives Choucri, Nazli Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141575 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141574 In search of peace systems: Scandinavia and the Netherlands, 1870-1970 Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Sat, 01 Jan 1972 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141574 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141573 From correlation analysis to computer forecasting: The evolution of a research programme in international relations Choucri, Nazli Thu, 01 Jan 1976 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141573 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141572 Alternative futures: An exercise in forecasting Choucri, Nazli; Bousfield, N.; Pollins, B. Thu, 01 Jan 1987 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141572 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141571 System dynamics forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli; Pollins, B. Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141571 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141570 Key issues in international relations forecasting Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141570 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141569 Organizational innovation: Global workflow and institutional e-Networking Choucri, Nazli; Haghseta, Farnaz; Mezher, Toufic Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141569 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141568 Political implications of population dynamics: A critical assessment. Choucri, Nazli While it is generally recognized that excessive population growth places severe strains upon the environment, there is also some reason to believe that population levels and rates of increase may be important elements affecting national' power, war and peace, and the nature of social and political organization. This paper will attempt to evaluate existing evidence concerning the political implications of population dynamics, note areas of ambiguity and suggest possible avenues for further research. Mon, 10 Jun 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141568 1974-06-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141567 Demography, migration, and security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli Mon, 07 Nov 1994 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141567 1994-11-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141566 LIGHTS: Laboratory for information globalization and harmonization technologies and studies Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Wang, Richard Three important trends – unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity – are creating new opportunities for global politics, with challenging demands for information access, interpretation, provision and overall use. This has serious implications for two diverse domains of scholarship: Information Technology (IT) and International Relations (IR) in political science. Unless IT advances remain ‘one step ahead’ of such realities and complexities, strategies for better understanding and responding to emergent global challenges will be severely impeded. For example, the new Department of Homeland Security will rely on intelligence information from all over the world to develop strategic responses to a wide range of security threats. However, relevant information is stored throughout the world and by diverse agencies and in different media, formats, quality, and contexts. Intelligent integration of that information and improved modes of access and use are critical to developing policies designed to identify and anticipate sources of threat, to strengthen protection against threats on the United States, and to enhance the security of the nation. Sat, 01 Feb 2003 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141566 2003-02-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141565 Information integration for counter terrorism activities: The requirement for context mediation Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Moulton, Allen; Siegel, Michael D.; Zhu, Hongwei The National Research Council has noted that "[A]lthough there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counterterrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information." In this paper we present examples of these problems and a technology developed at MIT, called context mediation, which provides a novel approach for addressing these problems. Sat, 01 Nov 2003 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141565 2003-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141564 Laboratory for information globalization and harmonization Siegel, Michael D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Zhu, Harry; Haghseta, Farnaz; Moulton, Allen The convergence of three distinct but interconnected trends – unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity – is creating powerful new opportunities and challenges for global politics. This rapidly changing environment has information demands that surpass existing capabilities for information access, interpretation, and overall use, thus hindering our abilities to address emergent and complex global challenges, such as terrorism and other security threats. This reality has serious implications for two diverse domains of scholarship: international relations (IR) in political science and information technology (IT). Unless IT advances remain ‘one step ahead’ of emergent realities and complexities, strategies for better understanding and responding to critical global challenges will be severely impeded. For example, more so now than ever, the U.S. Office of Counter-Terrorism and the newly-created Office of Homeland Security rely on intelligence information from all over the world to develop strategic responses to security threats. However, relevant information is stored in various regions throughout the world and by diverse agencies in different media, formats, and contexts. Intelligent integration of information is fundamental to developing policies to anticipate and strengthen protection against terrorist threats or attacks in the United States. This Project’s activities, and relationships with its collaborators, will be coordinated through a newly formed joint Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT). LIGHT will address information needs in the IR domain, focusing on the conflict realm, which deals with emergent risks, threats, and uncertainties of potentially global scale and scope related to: (a) crises, (b) conflicts and war; and (c) anticipation, monitoring and early warning. The goals of this initiative are to: (1) improve understanding of the types of IR information needs for decision making and institutional performance under varying degrees of risk and uncertainty; (2) design and implement the System for Harmonized Information Processing, to facilitate access to and correct interpretation of essential information that is critical to policy and research in the IR realm, as well as to other similarly complex domains, and (3) advance developments in the use of information technologies to facilitate such interdisciplinary research and to contribute to new education approaches, tools, and methods. Increasingly, addressing problems central to national and global interests in complex domains such as IR requires the use of technologies that easily combine observations from disparate sources, using different interpretations, for different purposes, and by a wide range of users. Critical advances in IT capabilities must span multiple domains (e.g., economic, political, geographic, commercial, and demographic), diverse contexts (i.e., meanings, languages, assumptions), and a multiplicity of contending agents (i.e., states, governments, corporations, international institutions). The technology-related research will focus on acquiring and enhancing information to serve user requirements both over individual domains (i.e., a single shared ontology) and across multiple domains, which are necessary for addressing complex challenges. The core innovation is reflected in the notion of a Collaborative Domain Space (CDS), within which applications in a common domain can share, analyze, modify, and develop information. For applications that span multiple domains we provide for a Collection of CDSs to link shared concepts in distinct domains. Moreover, we will develop the System for Harmonized Information Processing that incorporates CDSs as a basis for knowledge representation and includes all the necessary reasoning algorithms required to support information processing over a range of heterogeneous sources and applications. The development of the system described above builds upon prior work. The political science IR work will draw on an earlier Internet-based experimental ‘platform’ for exploring forms of information generation, provision, and integration across multiple domains, regions, languages, and epistemologies which are relevant to complex but domain-specific applications, the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD). The IT component builds on work on the Context Interchange project (COIN) focused on the integration of a range of distributed heterogeneous information sources (e.g., financial, supply chain, disaster relief) using ontologies, databases, context mediation algorithms, and wrapper technologies. Both groups have considerable experience with the organization and management of large scale, international, distributed, and diverse research projects, including cross-national (e.g., China, Middle East, Europe) and institutional (private, public, national and international) agencies. The anticipated results will apply to any complex domain with multiple entities that rely on heterogeneous distributed data to address and resolve compelling problems. This initiative is supported by a network of international collaborators from (a) scientific and research institutions, (b) business and industry, and (c) national and international agencies. Expected research products include: a software platform, IR-based knowledge repository, and diverse applications in policy, research, and education which are anticipated to significantly impact the way complex organizations, and society in general, understand and manage critical global challenges. Sat, 01 Dec 2001 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141564 2001-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141563 Using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Mistree, Dinsha; Morrison, J. Bradley; Siegel, Michael D. The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability. Sun, 01 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141563 2007-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141562 The energy policy project: Petroleum and natural gas in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Shafei, M. Zaki This study is undertaken as part of the Energy and Development Research Program at M.I.T. under the direction of Professor Choucri. It is designed to Contribute to understanding energy-economy interactions in devel­opment and the constraints and opportunities created by the existing geologi­cal and technological configurations of energy systems. Handwritten text: PNAAN766 ISN 32177 Sat, 01 Jan 1983 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141562 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141561 Resource scarcity and foreign policy: A simulation model of international conflict Choucri, Nazli; Laird, Michael; Meadows, Dennis L. This paper describes the initial stages of an interdisciplinary research project designed to trace the effects of domestic resource needs and scarcities in advanced technological societies upon international behavior. Our objective is the development of conceptual tools for disciplined speculation concerning alternative future responses that may be employed by nations faced with resource problems. What follows is a statement of the problem, a description of the research design and methodology used, and a discussion of our preliminary analysis, with the United States as a test case. The investigations reported in this paper were undertaken with the collaboration of Robert C. North, Stanford University. The energy data were compiled a t Stanford University and processed at M.I.T. by Panayiotis Momferratos. The model formulation was undertaken by Michael Laird, and the basic research for resource data by James P. Bennett. An earlier version of this paper was entitled "International Implications of Technological Development and Population Growth," M.I.T., September 1971. We are grateful to Hayward R. Alker for incisive comments and criticisms. Sat, 01 Jan 1972 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141561 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141560 Population and conflict: New dimensions of population dynamics Choucri, Nazli The pervasiveness of population issues can be seen today in almost all aspects of human society. While our understanding of these issues has greatly increased over the last decade and a half, the implications o! population dynamics for conflict behaviour have not been well explained. Population, conflict and their interaction may be important factors in determining the kind of world we will face for the remaining decades of this century and those of the next. While the absence of population related pressures does not guarantee peace, these pressures could increase the probability of conflict. This is particularly true when such additional aggravating factors as widening economic disparities, worsening environmental conditions and dwindling natural resources are also present in countries. This report by Professor Nazli Choucri brings into focus the role of population dynamics in conflict manifestations. It also underscores the need to resolve population issues within a development framework if prosperity and peace for mankind are to be ensured. The UNFPA is pleased to see this report appear in time for the International Conference on Population in 1984 and hopes that this report in the Policy Development Studies series will advance the understanding of a complex and important issue. Sat, 01 Jan 1983 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141560 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141559 Migration and employment in the construction sector: Critical factors in Egyptian development Choucri, Nazli; Eckaus, Richard S.; Mohie-Eldine, Amr The migration of construction workers is having a strong effect on the construction sector and on the economy as a whole. There are costs and benefits to this migration. And there are policy implications that must be clearly understood so that the benefits can be made to outweigh the costs. Mon, 01 Jan 1979 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141559 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141558 Migration processes among developing countries: The Middle East Choucri, Nazli This paper is part of a research project undertaken within the context of the Technology Adaptation Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is allowed to appear in the Migration and Development Study Group series as a courtesy of the Technology Adaptation Program. Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141558 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141557 Energy independence Choucri, Nazli; Ferraro, Vincent This study is one of a number done by academic and other research institutions for the Department of State as part of its external research program. The program is planned and coordinated by the Department of State Research Council and managed by the Office of External Research in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. It is designed to supplement the Department's own research capabilities and to provide independent, expert views to policy officers and analysts on questions with important policy implications. Fri, 01 Nov 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141557 1974-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141556 Methodological perspectives and research implications Alker, Hayward R. Jr.; Choucri, Nazli This study is one of a number done by academic and other research institutions for the Department of State as part of its external research program. The program is planned and coordinated by the Department of State Research Council and managed by the Office of External Research in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. It is designed to supplement the Department's own research capabilities and to provide independent, expert views to policy officers and analysts on questions with important policy implications. Fri, 01 Nov 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141556 1974-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141555 The new migration in the Middle East: a problem for whom? Choucri, Nazli Popular views of the Middle East tend to concentrate on the cultural homogeneity of the Arab states, their conflict with Israel, and the dispute over petroleum prices. Yet in recent years a new issue has emerged that may well dominate regional politics in the years to come, giving rise to problems with both economic and political ramifications. That issue is the increased migration of Egyptian workers—skilled and unskilled—to other Arab states and their importance to development program and plans for social change. The volume of this migration and its consequences for regional politics are only dimly foreseen. Indeed, the very magnitude of that movement is itself in question, given the paucity of recorded data, conflicting reports, and political incentives for inaccurate representation. But there is every indication that it transcends narrow demographic concerns and will exert a powerful influence on relations among the Arab countries. Sat, 01 Jan 1977 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141555 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141554 Population dynamics and local conflict: A cross national study of population and war Choucri, Nazli There are many uncertainties concerning the implications of population dynamics for conflict and violence among nations. The record is unclear. And despite some preliminary evidence regarding the role of demographic factors in contributing to violent conflict, considerable ambiguities remain. The purpose of this paper is to (1) summarize a cross-national study of the relationship between population dynamics and violent conflict in developing areas, (2) present a profile of basic patterns and associations, and (3) provide some insights into the apparent linkages between demographic factors, on the one hand, and conflict behavior, on the other. This skeletal review is abstracted from a detailed comparative analysis of the role of demographic factors in 45 "third world" conflicts since World War II. Logistical constraints prevent a discussion of each case, and as comprehensive a review of methods, procedure. results and policy implications as would be desirable. Only the broadest patterns are delineated. Tue, 01 Jan 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141554 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141553 Improving National and Homeland Security through a proposed Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT) Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael; Wang, Richard A recent National Research Council study found that: "Although there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counter terrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information" [NRC02, p.304, emphasis added] That sentence succinctly describes the objectives of this project. Improved access and use of information are essential to better identify and anticipate threats, protect against and respond to threats, and enhance national and homeland security (NHS), as well as other national priority areas, such as Economic Prosperity and a Vibrant Civil Society (ECS) and Advances in Science and Engineering (ASE). This project focuses on the creation and contributions of a Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT) with two interrelated goals: (1) Theory and Technologies: To research, design, develop, test, and implement theory and technologies for improving the reliability, quality, and responsiveness of automated mechanisms for reasoning and resolving semantic differences that hinder the rapid and effective integration (int) of systems and data (dmc) across multiple autonomous sources, and the use of that information by public and private agencies involved in national and homeland security and the other national priority areas involving complex and interdependent social systems (soc). This work builds on our research on the COntext INterchange (COIN) project, which focused on the integration of diverse distributed heterogeneous information sources using ontologies, databases, context mediation algorithms, and wrapper technologies to overcome information representational conflicts. The COIN approach makes it substantially easier and more transparent for individual receivers (e.g., applications, users) to access and exploit distributed sources. Receivers specify their desired context to reduce ambiguities in the interpretation of information coming from heterogeneous sources. This approach significantly reduces the overhead involved in the integration of multiple sources, improves data quality, increases the speed of integration, and simplifies maintenance in an environment of changing source and receiver context - which will lead to an effective and novel distributed information grid infrastructure. This research also builds on our Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), an Internet platform for information generation, provision, and integration of multiple domains, regions, languages, and epistemologies relevant to international relations and national security. (2) National Priority Studies: To experiment with and test the developed theory and technologies on practical problems of data integration in national priority areas. Particular focus will be on national and homeland security, including data sources about conflict and war, modes of instability and threat, international and regional demographic, economic, and military statistics, money flows, and contextualizing terrorism defense and response. Although LIGHT will leverage the results of our successful prior research projects, this will be the first research effort to simultaneously and effectively address ontological and temporal information conflicts as well as dramatically enhance information quality. Addressing problems of national priorities in such rapidly changing complex environments requires extraction of observations from disparate sources, using different interpretations, at different points in times, for different purposes, with different biases, and for a wide range of different uses and users. This research will focus on integrating information both over individual domains and across multiple domains. Another innovation is the concept and implementation of Collaborative Domain Spaces (CDS), within which applications in a common domain can share, analyze, modify, and develop information. Applications also can span multiple domains via Linked CDSs. The PIs have considerable experience with these research areas and the organization and management of such large scale international and diverse research projects. The PIs come from three different Schools at MIT: Management, Engineering, and Humanities, Arts & Social Sciences. The faculty and graduate students come from about a dozen nationalities and diverse ethnic, racial, and religious backgrounds. The currently identified external collaborators come from over 20 different organizations and many different countries, industrial as well as developing. Specific efforts are proposed to engage even more women, underrepresented minorities, and persons with disabilities. The anticipated results apply to any complex domain that relies on heterogeneous distributed data to address and resolve compelling problems. This initiative is supported by international collaborators from (a) scientific and research institutions, (b) business and industry, and (c) national and international agencies. Research products include: a System for Harmonized Information Processing (SHIP), a software platform, and diverse applications in research and education which are anticipated to significantly impact the way complex organizations, and society in general, understand and manage critical challenges in NHS, ECS, and ASE. Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141553 2004-12-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141547 The new migration in the Middle East: A problem for whom? Choucri, Nazli This paper describes the recent trends in migration throughout the Middle East, identifying the major implications of this movement, and isolating the critical policy issues for both Egypt and other Arab states. The author argues that international migration in the Middle East harbors political and economic effects that may be potentially explosive. It is demonstrated that current migration related policies may be counter-productive for all parties concerned. This paper highlights the emergence of new issues in Middle East politics without attempting a detailed analysis of their many facets. Thu, 01 Dec 1977 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141547 1977-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141546 A report on Bucharest. The World Population Conference and the Population Tribune, August 1974 The United Nations World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania, in August 1974, was the first international conference of governments to discuss population and development. It represented a breakthrough in a field that had, to that time, largely focused on technical aspects of population regulation-family planning programs, distribution and dissemination of contraceptive devices and methods, and research in demographic processes -and in which the major conferences had largely involved professionals in the field. The foresight and dedication of the United Nations system made possible a broadening of this approach to population issues. Sun, 01 Dec 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141546 1974-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141545 Book Review: Manpower and employment in Arab countries: Some critical issues Choucri, Nazli Book Review. Thu, 01 Jan 1976 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141545 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141544 The pervasiveness of politics: Political definitions of population issues Choucri, Nazli Population programmes have political dimensions-and political problems often have demographic roots. But just how do politics and population interact? Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141544 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141543 Labor transfers in the Arab world: Growing interdependence in the construction sector Choucri, Nazli Text in Arabic language. Mon, 01 Jan 1979 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141543 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141542 The Arab world in the 1980s: Macro-politics and economic change Choucri, Nazli The events of the early 1970's -- preceded by gradual changes which culminated in the war of 1973 and the oil price increases of October that year -- created realities that cannot be comprehended through conventional categories used in the past. Outsiders generally view the Arab world in terms of population, agriculture, industry and the like. In the West, the prevailing view was that the Arab world was poor, despite new wealth in oil-rich countries, and that its economic problems were basically those of increasing rates of growth, per capita income, and managing propensities for urban living. By the same token, the countries of the region were defined as "democracies," "monarchies" or "dictatorships" as the case might be. Arab countries were regarded as "good" or "bad" depending on the cold war politics of the time. Arab states, whatever their form of government, were then defined as "pro-West", "pro-East" or non-aligned, the implication being that political choices were limited to these three possibilities.[2] Lending can often be quite complex, given scarcity of personnel and difficulties in evaluating projects. The Abu Dhabi Fund (ADFAED), Saudi Development Fund (SDF), Iraq Fund for External Development (IFED), and Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFEAD) are all bilateral, administered by one country, and generally disbursed to individual recipients or occasionally an organization. Multilateral funds include Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFSED), Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (ABEDA), and the OPEC Special Fund. Other lending facilities include the Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development, the Arab Monetary Fund and the Arab Africa Oil Assistance Fund. Fri, 30 Apr 1982 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141542 1982-04-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141541 Migration in the Middle East: Transformation and change Choucri, Nazli; Brecke, P. The large-scale international movement of manpower is one of the most dramatic effects of the oil price increase and related events of 1973. The issues raised by migration in the Middle East have not received the attention they deserve from political analysts, economists, or area specialists. Yet the economic development of the Arab region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national borders. So, too, labor migration is changing the political demography of the region, shaping the parameters for political and social conflict in the years to come. This paper places contemporary migration in the Middle East in its historical context and then reviews the transformations in migration over the past ten years. It seeks to trace the evolution of migration processes. The basic, guiding proposition is that the "reality" has changed. The challenge lies in delineating these transformations and identifying the various flows and sequences in the evolution of the migration process. Sun, 01 Jan 1984 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141541 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141540 The hidden economy: A new view of remittances in the Arab world Choucri, Nazli The hidden economy is set in place by the large-scale migration of labor in search of employment outside national boundaries. Remitted earnings, channeled largely through informal mechanisms, have generated a network of financial and economic relations that define the boundaries and characteristic features of the hidden economy. The hidden economy shapes many of the critical parameters of economic activity of the Middle East, such as exchange rates and the availability of foreign exchange. It is difficult to observe (or measure) working of this important phenomenon, since, to a large extent, it operates through unofficial, informal, or illegal transactions. Special emphasis is given to the cases of Sudan and Egypt to illustrate the operations of the hidden economy and to identify its agents and characteristic features. Wed, 01 Jan 1986 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141540 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141539 Asians in the Arab world: Labor migration and public policy Choucri, Nazli Ten years after the first oil price rises were declared in 1973 the countries of the Middle East were still struggling to understand the implications of these momentous events. Economic changes induced by events of 1973 created a dynamic process that fundamentally changed both the view of, and the reality in, the Arab world. The economic development of the region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national boundaries. The appearance of increasing numbers of South and East Asian workers in the Arab Gulf represents the most important recent change in the labor markets of the region. The new flows of Asian labor, beginning around 1975, were partly a response to market conditions and partly fueled by political concerns. Arab labor exporters could not fully meet the demand for labor. In addition, Asians had a distinct political advantage: Asian workers were unlikely to make claims for citizenship. Asians were alien and could continue to remain disenfranchised. They were regarded as more likely to be passive observers of political processes rather than as potential activists or claimants on social services and other benefits of citizenship. Now, at the time of writing, in 1983, there emerge signs of yet another change. The Middle East press reports new labor agreements among Arab countries as well as criticism of the large number of Asians. These signs must be interpreted with caution. If such a reaction is occurring it may be politically motivated. For example, while Arab labor contractors might now become almost as effective as their Asian counterparts, they are unlikely to have surpassed them. To fully appreciate the implications of the Asian presence, it must. be placed in the context of migration processes in the Middle East. This article presents the view from the Middle East by reviewing the migration processes of the past decade and highlighting the initial issues of political economy emerging from the large-scale movement of labor across national boundaries. The major policy issues are then identified, as an essential requisite for making cautious assessments regarding future prospects. Wed, 01 Jan 1986 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141539 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141538 Migration in the Middle East: Old economics or new politics? Choucri, Nazli What we have in the Middle East today is a very distinctive and peculiar phenomenon that can be understood only in the context of the realities of the past decade: almost everyone is on the move. Nowhere do we see a truly national labor market. While declining oil prices will almost certainly reduce the growth of the labor mobility, even perhaps eliminating it entirely, the fact remains that almost every country relies on sending labor, or on receiving labor, or on both. This fact will remain with us well into the foreseeable future. For example, over 80 percent of Kuwait's labor force is composed of nonnationals; 50 percent of the country's population are noncitizens. While this is indeed a stark profile, it is certainly unreasonable to expect that all foreigners will be "returned." There is almost no scenario one can conjure to reestablish truly national labor markets that would, in turn, eliminate this internationalization of employment practices. This is precisely what makes the issue of labor migration an intensely political, rather than simply an economic, issue in the Middle East today. The foreign policies of nations, Arab and non-Arab, are increasingly shaped by manpower connections, and issues that were conventionally thought to be in the realm of "low politics"--to be dealt with by technocrats, bureaucrats, economists, and the like--have been catapulted into the arena of "high politics," pressing themselves upon the attention and shaping the priorities of almost every leader in the region. Remittances from employment abroad are a major feature of the manpower mosaic in the Middle East. By official estimates, Egyptians remit about $3 billion per year. (But there are indications that this figure may be falling because migration is tapering off.) This is an official figure, accounted for in the country's balance of payments. Once these earnings are remitted, it is conventionally believed that a whole variety of economic effects takes place. This added income in the hands of consumers, translated into more purchasing power, leads to increased aggregate demand and eventually increased output. Most observers believe, however, that remittances are essentially "squanderables," going into consumer goods, luxury items, TV's, and so forth. No one knows for sure what happens to the remitted earnings, but analysts have tended to focus on their impact for the real side of the economy, that is, the goods market rather than the monetary side, money supply, and foreign exchange markets. Generally, almost everyone attributes the growing inflation in the labor-exporting countries to the flow of remittances. On balance, then, there are "goods" and "bads" associated with remittances; how much of each remains quite unclear. The revolutionary uprising of Palestinians within the occupied territories, and within Israel, is tying labor issues to security concerns, connecting both with strong contentions against authority of the occupying power. The simplicity of conventional definitions is being challenged: are Palestinians working in Israel "migrant labor," "citizens," "refugees," or some other category? In a region where people are intensely politicized, issues of mobility, migration, employment, and labor are increasingly ones of "high politics." Sat, 30 Apr 1988 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141538 1988-04-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141537 Migration and security: Some key linkages Choucri, Nazli As migration is defined as the movement of people across national boundaries--an inter-state phenomenon--we would expect it to be addressed by students of international relations.... It is ... glaring to note the absence of migration as a topic in graduate courses in the field and its practical non-existence in the textbooks. Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141537 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141536 Globalization, migration, and new challenges to governance Choucri, Nazli; Mistree, Dinsha The movement of people across national borders—along with the cross-border flow of ideas, goods, services, and pollutants—has reached unprecedented levels in recent decades. As a result, sovereign states find themselves under increasing pressure to manage these flows and respond to the challenges that the flows create, while balancing the interests of various constituencies, both national and international. Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141536 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141534 Interactions of economic and political change: The Egyptian case Choucri, Nazli; Eckaus, Richard S. Partial indicators of economic change in Egypt suggest that the real rate of growth and the rate of inflation have been higher than official statistics. Investment and consumption have both grown rapidly. The private sector has responded strongly to new opportunities. Large-scale migration of Egyptian workers of all types to the Arab oil countries has reduced the unemployment rate substantially and created shortages of some types of labour. Economic changes have interacted with political changes which are characterized by a higher degree of participation and a slow and inconsistent movement toward liberalization. Economic interests and autonomous political groups generate pressures that are far more comprehensive than yet recognized. Mon, 01 Jan 1979 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141534 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141533 The politicization of technology choices Choucri, Nazli An analysis of the factors involved in international technological advance and of the various strains and tensions created by the intervention of national political considerations. Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141533 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141532  A partnership with nature: Construction consortium for the global environment Choucri, Nazli There is no doubt that human beings are intervening in natural environments in potentially significant ways. There are controversies about the scale and scope of these interventions. That fact is not questioned by anyone, anywhere. Because construction by definition means building human environments and altering the areas being built, the construction industry is extremely vulnerable to an emerging ethos of environmental responsibility. The crucial fact is that with the inevitable vulnerabilities come now opportunities. To the extent that the construction industry can appreciate—and even create—these opportunities, this vulnerability could be turned to major advantages, possibly greater than had even been the case in the history of this industry. Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141532 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141531 Globalization of eco–efficiency: GSSD on the world wide web (www) Choucri, Nazli This article presents a pragmatic strategy for accelerating the diffusion of advances in eco-efficiency, and for enhancing two-way communication between industry and its diverse constituencies. Attention is also given to means now available for developing countries to "leapfrog" in eco-efficiency and, at the same time, increase understanding in industrialized countries of market conditions in the developing world. Sun, 01 Jan 1995 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141531 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141530 Renewable energy in Abu Dhabi: Opportunities and challenges Mezher, Toufic; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an oil-rich country located in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula. Abu Dhabi is the largest emirate in the country, and Abu Dhabi is the capital of the UAE. The country has the one of the highest per capita rates of CO2 CO 2 emission and water consumption in the world. Most of the water consumed is produced in desalination plants, which are energy intensive. The leadership of the country has made the bold decision to establish a renewable energy (RE) sector to diversify its energy sources and the economy as a whole. The Masdar Initiative was established to promote this objective. The government has established its first RE policy; the goal is to have 7% of power come from RE sources and technologies by 2020. This paper highlights the different RE projects of the Masdar Initiative, with particular emphasis on the power sector, and examines the new concentrated solar power (CSP) plants developed as part of the initiative. Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141530 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141529 Population, resources, and technology: Political implications of the environmental crisis Choucri, Nazli; Bennett, James P. Virtually everyone recognizes the existence on an environmental crisis in the world today, but many uncertainties remain concerning the precise nature of this crisis and its domestic and international implications. This much is clear: The world's population is continuing to grow at an alarming pace; finite resources are being utilized at exponential rates; and technological advances are contributing to negative ecological outcomes. These trends have been documented extensively. Their political significance, however, has received little attention if only because the visibility of the problem is such a recent phenomenon. This article is addressed to some of the political consequences and international implications of the environmental crisis. Sat, 01 Jan 1972 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141529 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141528 Analytical specifications of the world oil market: A review and comparison of twelve models.  Choucri, Nazli One discernible reaction to the oil price increases of October 1973 is a variety of arguments and position papers about different features of the "crisis," yielding both diagnoses of the "problem" and prescriptions for its "solution." Much of this literature is dominated by a view that the problem is created by the oil exporting countries, and the solution is some form of induced price reduction. At the same time, however, there is a new line of research that seeks to apply techniques of mathematical modeling and simulation to analyses of the "problem." The importance of this new work on the world oil market lies in its intended contribution to our understanding of that market, by seeking to yield insights into precise relationships and provide specific predictions or forecasts. The purpose of this review is to compare the structure of twelve models of the world oil market, identify the analytical formulations employed, and render explicit the world view adopted by each and its implications for modeling international trade in petroleum. This comparison is designed to highlight both the dominant assumptions and the characteristic features of price de- termination in models of the world petroleum market. We shall conclude that models reviewed all share the same general paradigm, that the implicit world view employed poses inherent difficulties, that important features of "reality" in international oil trade are omitted, and that some of these difficulties can be overcome by an explicit recognition of the broader international exchanges within which this particular market is imbedded. Mon, 01 Jan 1979 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141528 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141527 Power and politics in world oil Choucri, Nazli Though there has recently been more oil in the marketplace than anyone knows what to do with, a feeling of apprehension persists. We know that oil is a fi. nite resource upon which the world is profoundly dependent. We remember how a handful of producers shook the market for this critical commodity almost ten years ago, causing a fourfold price increase in a few weeks. We sense that these producers have since 1973 consolidated the position that gave them unprecedented control of the market. Indeed, the 13 producing countries that are now members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today provide one-third of the world's oil; half of all exported oil comes from the Middle East. It is easy to believe that industrial countries are increasingly at the mercy of these oil- exporting countries, whose political and religious traditions are so vital and different from those of the West. Fri, 01 Jan 1982 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141527 1982-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141526 OPEC: Calming a nervous world oil market Choucri, Nazli In October 1973, the oil-exporting countries announced an increase in oil prices from $3.11 to 5.12 per barrel. The consuming nations regarded the price increases with horror—as an audacious and unwarranted economic humiliation. Since then, the oil-exporting countries have increased the market price of crude ten times, reaching $28 per barrel, and almost everyone agrees that there remains a wide margin for further price increases to producers, consumers, and international oil companies. In retrospect, the 1973 price increases seem moderate, but they were the first obvious manifestation of irrevocable changes in the oil market and, most important, in the world's international power structure. Tue, 01 Jan 1980 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141526 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141525 Energy and development: Understanding the risks Lampe, D. R. It is no secret that highly industrialized nations such as Great Britain, the United States, and Japan depend heavily on the oil rich nations of the Middle East - and increasingly Latin America - for the petroleum products to fuel their economies. On the other hand, this demand has produced sudden enormous wealth in these regions, a situation which inevitably brings political and social, as well as economic, strains. Understanding the interplay of the volatile energy market with the politics, economics, and growth in these areas are thus of vital importance both for the developing areas and the countries with which they do business. To help monitor, understand, and forecast the changes and risks associated with these critical areas, a group of MIT researchers drawn from several disciplines have combined their expertise in a series of projects under the auspices of the Energy and Development Research Program. And members of the group have developed new and unique methods for producing comprehensive analyses of the economic and political issues in these areas. Sat, 01 Jan 1983 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141525 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141524 Energy policy in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Shafei, M. Z. Energy issues are becoming increasingly central to the Egyptian economy, and the country's energy sector is regarded by many analysts and policy makers as holding one critical key to Egypt's future. However, sound management is required so that the country's scarce resources are optimally utilized. These concerns provided the basis for a: collaborative research project on Egyptian energy issues undertaken jointly between Cairo University and M.IT. Sun, 01 Jan 1984 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141524 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141523 Demographics and conflict Choucri, Nazli Conflict and population are strongly interrelated, and the linkages go both ways. Under certain conditions population variables lead to conflict, and under other conditions the existence of conflict can have profound impacts on demographic characteristics. Yet these links are seldom simple or direct, and they are modified by intervening processes. Tue, 01 Apr 1986 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141523 1986-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141522 The perceptual base of nonalignment Choucri, Nazli Almost two-thirds of the nations in the world have chosen not to join either of the two dominant alliance systems—the Communist of the Western. Most of these states, generally known as the "third world." are Afro-Asian and their nonalignment signifies freedom from constraints imposed by alliances with major powers (Rossi, 1963). While it is misleading to consider the nonaligned states as a group homogenous in attitude and behavior the degree of variation among them is largely an empirical question. This articled examines the attitudinal orientation of three Afro-Asian nations—India, Egypt, and Indonesia—during the later 1950s and early 1960s, an important period in the development of nonalignment. Our primary objective is to identify the more general perceptions at the base of this policy. The model of the international system implicit in our analysis is admittedly oversimplified,, for the world is more complex than simply major powers and nonaligned states. However, for the purpose of systematic analysis, a parsimonious model is more useful than an intricate, though undoubtedly more realistic, portrayal of the international system. Sat, 01 Mar 1969 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141522 1969-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141521 The nonalignment of Afro–Asian States: Policy, perception, and behavior. Choucri, Nazli The purpose of this paper* is to examine the orientation of three Afro-Asian states in world politics during the mid 1950s and early 1960s-an important period in the development of their current international posture-with primary emphasis on the relationship between official policy, attitudes of the national leaderships, and actual behaviour. Nations do not always behave in accordance with stated policies, nor are their actions necessarily congruent with dominant attitudes. The degree of consistency between these three aspects of national orientation is the question to which this enquiry is addressed. The states exa- mined-India, Egypt, and Indonesia-were selected not because they represent Afro-Asia as a whole, but because they expressed in the most forceful terms the position of the "third world" during this period. Wed, 01 Jan 1969 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141521 1969-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141520 Dynamics of international conflict: Some policy implications of population, resources, and technology Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. International conflict has been accounted for in many different ways—in terms of aggressive “instincts,” territoriality, population growth, the search for basic resources or seaports, the protection of trade routes, psychopathological deviations, plunder and profit, a drive for imperialist control, and so forth. Some theorists have considered grievances, competition, anxieties, tension, threat, and provocation to be of special importance. Others have laid heavy emphasis upon national power or capability, military preparedness, strategic considerations, and the competition for dominance.1 No doubt most if not all of these variables are relevant, but this recognition does not help much in the development of a theory of war, its dynamics, and contributing causal networks. In the long run all factors need to be pulled together in some systematic way. A serious difficulty emerges from the fact that the various “causes” that contribute to war tend to be highly interactive, that is, they affect each other in various ways and often in many different directions. The problem is to find out, if possible, which variables are contributing most to international violence and in what proportion. The purpose of this paper is to take an early step in this direction by reporting on some empirical research currently under way and by presenting some tentative findings which suggest partial explanations and some implications and difficulties for national policies. Sat, 01 Jan 1972 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141520 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141519 Resource constraints as causes of conflict Choucri, Nazli There is a crucial connection between resource constraints and Conflict among nations. As yet, however, the international community has paid little attention to that link. It is thereby missing the opportunity to develop preventive measures as well as effective responses should a conflict occur. Such acute myopia ill serves global needs, nor does it help efforts to design a better world for the 21st century. Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141519 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141518 Economic and political factors in international conflict and integration North, Robert C.; Choucri, Nazli In earlier efforts to explain international conflict and integration, the central focus was upon national attributes and decisionmaking as crucial to understanding the actions of states in war- and peacemaking. Recently, however, we have begun to critically reconsider these assumptions. In the face of their inability to fully account for the actions of states in international conflict and cooperation, we have sought out a more basic, disaggregated approach to these questions. We believe that the concept of leverage may serve as an important explanatory factor in theories of interstate relations. Here we offer some preliminary arguments concerning leverage and bargaining among domestic and international actors, fleshing out some of the possible relationships between economic and political behaviors and their effects on the war- and peacemaking activities of states in the international system. Sat, 01 Jan 1983 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141518 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141517 Profiles of states as fuzzy sets: Methodological refinement of lateral pressure theory Choucri, Nazli; Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin One of the most serious challenges in international relations pertains to the theory and measurement of transformation and change. This paper proposes, and then develops a conceptual and methodological extension in the measurement of change within and across states as postulated by lateral pressure theory. It argues, and shows, that by conceptualizing the profiles of states identified by lateral pressure theory using fuzzy logic, we can systematically and precisely locate and track relative changes in the distribution of states within and across profile spaces, across geographical regions, as well as over time. This may be an important step toward identifying and possibly anticipating changes in the configuration of states, including conflict-prone constellations, before they escalate into conflict or war. It may also improve our understanding of those regions of the world and help articulate the implications of significant geopolitical changes as they occur. Sun, 01 Jan 2006 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141517 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141516 An assessment of documentation standards for ten computer models of political problems Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Jan 1978 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141516 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141515 Globalization of MIT: GSSD on the world wide web (www) Choucri, Nazli Sun, 01 Oct 1995 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141515 1995-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141514 Energy and technological development in Latin America Choucri, Nazli By now, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is familiar to everyone: it is an almost perfect positive correlation which appears across time and in cross-national comparisons. Figure 1 shows the relationship between energy consumption and GNP in 1973 for select countries at different levels of development. The robustness of this relationship will necessitate macroeconomic adjustments due to oil price increases of 1973 and subsequent changes in the world oil market. Low fuel prices, which were instrumental in enabling rapid economic growth rates in the industrial west, can no longer be counted upon for growth in the developing world. While considerable ambiguity remains regarding the direction of causation whether from energy to economy or the other way around—the robustness of energy-economy interactions is not at issue: energy use, a necessary input for economic growth, is also a function of growth. Technological change in the energy area emerges in the forefront of policy concerns worldwide. Sun, 01 Nov 1981 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141514 1981-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141513 Research initiative to understand & model state stability: Exploiting system dynamics. Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D. The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ...national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.” Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction – and hence create new threats to the nation’s security. We focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability. Initially, we will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will develop a country model, along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options. Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141513 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141512 Domestic energy pricing: Trends and implications for the Arab world Choucri, Nazli Energy use everywhere is tied to population growth, industrialization, expansion of urban centers, and development of industrial and infrastructural facilities. The decade of the 1970s saw dramatic changes in the economic activity and performance of Arab economies. New economic targets were set in place, with new priorities and investment strategies. Energy policy was becoming an important priority for every country in the Arab world. A critical issue in energy policy is that of pricing, that is, determining the appropriate valuation for domestic uses of energy. Tue, 01 Jan 1985 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141512 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141511 Sustainability and diversity of development: Toward a generic model Choucri, Nazli; Berry, Rebecca This paper presents the generic framework for a national-level model of sustainability. The basic assumption is that there is not one model (or condition) but multiple possibilities; not one path, but a multiplicity of options. The countries of this world are diverse indeed, and the challenges facing them are both generic and idiosyncratic. In appreciation of the complexity and diversity of development, our approach is to depict underlying structural and functional linkages representing' the profile of states, with the objective of exploring possible paths over time in response to structural conditions as well as policy choices. Sun, 01 Jan 1995 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141511 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations Wils, Annababette; Kamiya, Matilde; Choucri, Nazli Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break. Sun, 01 Mar 1998 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 1998-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141509 Environment and conflict: New principles for environmental conduct Choucri, Nazli The crucial connections between environment and conflict among nations continue to escape political scrutiny. The international community as yet pays little attention to such connections, thereby missing the opportunity for both preventive measures and effective responses to managing the consequences after the outbreak of war. Such acute international myopia serves neither global welfare nor efforts to design a better world for the twenty-first century. This article addresses some crucial connections. However compelling they may be, facts alone are seldom enough. Facts must be interpreted and decisions based on coherent analysis; only then can we consider the merits of alternative policy options-and choose among the best. By definition, conflict damages natural environments; ecological costs are always incurred; degradation leads to more degradation and invariably to environmental damage-and the vicious cycle can go on and on. Environ- mental damage in the Middle East following the Gulf war is among the most compelling cases to date. Wed, 01 Jan 1992 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141509 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141508 Political economy of the global environment Choucri, Nazli The politicization of global environmental change has already injected scientific evidence (and uncertainties) in the policy domain—national and international. The nature of political discourse has and will continue to be affected by assessments of these changes. The purpose of this concluding discussion is threefold: (a) to identify conceptual elements for analysis of global environmental change which could provide a realistic framework for future research; (b) to identify salient features of the political economy of global environmental change; and (c) to identify key research and policy challenges in the study of international relations. Clearly the institutional and policy-related aspects are recognized by almost everyone as being crucial for developing an overall understanding of global change. Since human activities have contributed to fundamental interventions in natural processes, understanding the social underpinnings of these interventions (institutional, political, economic) is an essential part of an inquiry into the political economy of global change. Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141508 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141507 Consequences of war in the middle east. Choucri, Nazli Japan can—and must—play a role in the peace process that will follow after the war in the Gulf. While Japan enjoys credibility with the Arab countries of the Middle East, it will be pressed by the United States to take more positive action than it has until now. Tue, 01 Jan 1991 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141507 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141506 Comments on "scientific forecasts in international relations" Choucri, Nazli The initial disclaimers at the outset of the article that the authors seek neither to forecast nor to make a contribution to the "corpus of knowledge" in this area leave one with a sense of uncertainty about the context in which the issues raised must be viewed. It would constitute the essence of unfair practice to regard the article in any context other than that intended by the authors. The following observations are, therefore, of a more general nature by way of clarifying some of the issues raised in that article. These comments are presented in the order in which they are discussed by the authors. Thu, 01 Mar 1979 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141506 1979-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141505 Introduction: International political economy and the global environment Choucri, Nazli Conventional approaches to political economy, both national and international~ have traditionally focused upon matters relating to man and ignored interactions of humanity with nature, the effects of human action on natural environments, and the reaction of nature to human actions. Certainly this is no longer a defensible practice, either on theoretical or on empirical grounds. The profound dependence of humans on their natural environments--so taken for granted in biology, ecology, and other natural sciences--is only now beginning to be appreciated in the social sciences. And, most certainly, the traditional concerns of political economy cannot be ignored. New concerns do not invalidate the importance of older ones. :\t issue is the expansion of the frontiers of political economy and the extension of our common understanding of matters at the intersection of politics and economics. Fri, 01 Jan 1993 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141505 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141504 Introduction: CyberPolitics in International Relations Choucri, Nazli This issue of the International Political Science Review is devoted to new challenges and opportunities-as well as attendant problems-created by new information and communication technologies and applications in political science, with special attention to implications for international relations. The challenges are shaped in large part by the convergence of three trends: globalization, world-wide electronic connectivity, and emergent practices in knowledge networking. Increasingly, this convergence is reinforcing the role of knowledge in the global economy and in power politics. While each of these trends, individually, is having an impact on social discourse and modes of interaction, jointly they may be shaping powerful new parameters of politics, both nationally and internationally. They may also affect our ways of generating and managing knowledge, creating new knowledge, and even framing or re-framing the core concepts in political science. Central among these concepts, of course, are power, politics, representation, accountability, conflict, contention, and a host of others. In the context of the broader social sciences, these trends are also transforming traditional know- ledge practices, creating new research modes, and accelerating "new knowledge." Sat, 01 Jul 2000 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141504 2000-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141503 Global e-readiness—for what? Readiness for e-banking Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Gillett, Sharon E.; Haghseta, Farnaz; Zhu, Hongwei; Best, Michael L. With the rapid diffusion of the Internet worldwide, there has been considerable interest in the e-potentials of developing countries giving rise to a first generation of e-readiness studies. Moreover, e-readiness means different things to different people, in different contexts, and for different purposes. Despite strong merits, this first generation of e-readiness studies assumed a fixed, one-size-fits-all set of requirements, regardless of the characteristics of individual countries, the investment context, or the demands of specific applications. This feature obscures critical information for investors or policy analysts seeking to reduce uncertainties and make educated decisions. But there is very little known about e-readiness for e-banking. In particular, based on lessons learned to date and their implications for emerging realities of the 21st century, the authors designed and executed a research project with theoretical as well as practical dimensions to answer the question of “e-Readiness for What?,” focusing specifically on e-banking, based on the very assumption that one size can seldom, if ever, fit all. The authors also propose and develop a conceptual framework for the “next generation” e-readiness—focusing on different e-business applications in different economic contexts with potentially different pathways—as well as a data model—to explore e-readiness for e-banking in 10 countries. Tue, 19 Jul 2005 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141503 2005-07-19T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141502 Towards a forecasting model of energy politics: International Perspectives Choucri, Nazli; Ross, David S.; Meadows, Dennis L. Almost everyone recognizes an energy problem but uncertainties remain about its political and economic implications, both domestic and international. Indeed, there is disagreement on the extent to which it is a crisis. The spectrum of opinion ranges from those who argue the present situation is due largely to shortages of supplies and impending depletion of oil reserves (Akins 1973). to those who maintain the crisis is artificial, created mainly by induced departures from perfect market conditions (Adelman 1972). Both groups agree the United States and the industrialized world face a problem, but the definition and solution of the problem remain much debated. Thu, 01 Jan 1976 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141502 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141501 Background conditions to the outbreak of the First World War Choucri, Nazli This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of the attributes and capa- bilities of the major European states between the years 1870-1914. When war broke out in the summer of 1914 it was largely unexpected. The bipolarization of Europe into opposing camps-the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance- had been conceived mainly as a precautionary diplomatic measure. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment in some circles was that current conditions and relations between states could not have been better. In the space of six weeks, however, a seemingly localized dispute in the Balkans grew into a full-fledged European conflict, and over succeeding years the greater part of the world became involved. When fighting finally came to an end in 1918, the Austro-Hungarian monarchy was in dissolution, the Kaiser's Germany was on the point of collapse, and the whole world stood at a turning point. The investigations described below are part of a larger study designed to identify and determine the dynamics involved in the outbreak of World War I. This paper is presented as a tentative first report. There are many more analyses to be done with the data. Our intent is not to improve upon the historical accounts of a period which has been ably investigated by distinguished historians such as Sidney Fay and Luigi Albertini, nor to reopen old controversies about national responsibility and war guilt. Rather, the purpose is to focus on dimensions of inter-state behavior that have as yet not been fully examined. Mon, 01 Jan 1968 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141501 1968-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141500 Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli The apparent neglect of quantitative methodology in political analysis can be explained partly by the absence of a common paradigm or frame of reference for political inquiry and partly by the lack of experience with experimental analysis of empirical data. The absence of general theory poses considerable difficulties for analysis and for specifying the nature of expected relationships or outcomes. For example, without a good theory of war, it is difficult to explain, account for, and predict wars among nations as well as to forecast the probable range of casualties, the extent or duration of violence, geographical scope, and so forth. And the absence of sufficient experience with quantitative analysis poses equally numerous difficulties bearing upon our ability to go beyond purely descriptive modes of inquiry. For example, without sound analytical and computational tools it is difficult to develop empirical models, or simulations, or forecasts of such dynamics. This paper examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the consequences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error. Mon, 01 Jan 1973 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141500 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects Choucri, Nazli The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting. Tue, 01 Jan 1974 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141498 The international petroleum exchange model: Reference results and validation Choucri, Nazli The author describes the IPE model and compares its main results with the data for 1970–1978. The model's results are close to the actual consumer-import demand for those years. The model's forecasts of the future demand for oil imports, over the next 20 years, are considerably lower than the forecasts produced by some other studies. Sun, 01 Jun 1980 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141498 1980-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141497 International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective Choucri, Nazli The oil price increases of October 1973 triggered a set of changes in the international system that promise to have continued, long-term effects. This article begins with a review of the major attempts to model the world oil market and provides syntheses of their char acteristics and worldview. The structure of the International Petroleum Exchange Model developed at MIT is then presented, followed by a set of simulations (forecasts) of future changes in petroleum supply and demand associated with alternative price paths. The simulations are also compared with empirical data to provide some insights into the potential accuracy of the forecasts. Fri, 01 Oct 1982 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141497 1982-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141496 Short-run energy-economy interactions in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Supriya, Lahiri This paper discusses the short-run adjustment mechanism of the Egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil. The effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short-run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy. The results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation, fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses. The analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors. Wed, 01 Aug 1984 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141496 1984-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141495 Analyzing oil production in developing countries: A case study of Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher; Lynch, Michael This article presents a detailed simulation analysis of the domestic oil sector in Egypt; a near-typical, non-OPEC, oil-producing developing country. Egypt is a small producer by international standards, yet significant enough that its oil production is important for the country's economy and under certain conditions, for the international oil market as well. A dynamic computer simulation model that depicts significant characteristics of the country's oil sector is utilized to explore the implications of alternative scenarios for government policies, world oil prices, and geological parameters on patterns of production, exports, and export earnings. Mon, 01 Jan 1990 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141495 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141494 Simulation models Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher This paper summarizes some basic assumptions and procedures for simulation approaches. A brief discussion of system dynamics is presented. A description of the International Petroleum Exchange Model (IPE) developed at MIT is presented. As a simulation model of the world oil market, IPE shows the interactions, adjustments, and behavior of major actors and agents, and of the underlying supply, demand, and price relationships. Illustrations of model results are presented along with comparison of alternative simulation scenarios. Thu, 01 Mar 1990 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141494 1990-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141493 Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics Choucri, Nazli; Electris, C.; Goldsmith, D.; Mistree, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Morrison, J. B.; Siegel, M. D.; Sweitzer-Hamilton, M. The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability. Sat, 04 Mar 2006 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141493 2006-03-04T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138136.2 A Systematic Framework to Understand Transnational Governance for Cybersecurity Risks from Digital Trade Huang, Keman; Madnick, Stuart E; Choucri, Nazli; Zhang, Fang Governing cybersecurity risks from digital trade is a growing responsibility for governments and corporations. This study develops a systematic framework to delineate and analyze the strategies that governments and corporations take to address cybersecurity risks from digital trade. It maps out the current landscape based on a collection of 75 cases where governments and corporations interact to govern transnational cybersecurity risks. This study reveals that: first, governing cybersecurity risks from digital trade is a global issue whereby most governments implement policies with concerning that the cybersecurity risks embedded within purchasing transnational digital products can influence their domestic political and societal systems. Second, governments dominates the governance interactions by implementing trade policies whereas corporations simply comply. Corporations do, however, have chances to take more active roles in constructing the governance system. Third, supply chain cybersecurity risks have more significant impacts on governance mode between governments and corporations whereas concerns on different national cybersecurity risks do not. Fourth, the interactions between governments and corporations reveal the exisitence of loops that can amplify or reduce cybersecurity risks. This provides policy implications on transnational cybersecurity governance for policy makers and business leaders to consider their potential options and understand the global digital trade environment when cybersecurity and digital trade overlap. Tue, 31 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138136.2 2021-08-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105890 The Theory of Lateral Pressure Highlights of Quantification & Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli Lateral Pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of individuals and societies to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. Lateral Pressure theory seeks to explain the relationships between state characteristics and patterns of international behavior. The theory addresses the sources and consequences of transformation and change in international relations and provides a basis for analyzing potential feedback dynamics. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries – driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations – they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics leading hostilities, escalation, and eventually to conflict and violence. These processes are contingent on the actors’ intents, capabilities, and activities. The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers, that is, the master variables that shape the profiles of states -- through the intervening variables, namely, aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities -- the outcome often generates added complexities. This paper proceeds as follows: First we highlight the basic features of lateral pressure theory, its core components, and their interconnections. Some aspects are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are more consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Second, we summarize the phases of empirical investigations and the evolution of theory over time. Third, we return to basics and focus on the refinements of metrics and quantification of the core concepts. All of this pertains to the world, as we have known it prior to the construction of the Internet, the core of cyberspace. Fourth, we then turn briefly to results so far of our o research on lateral pressure in the cyber domain. The Endnote highlights some emerging imperatives. Fri, 11 Nov 2016 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105890 2016-11-11T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71264 Modeling Renewable Energy Readiness: The UAE Context Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Mezher, Toufic Modeling technology policy is becoming an increasingly important capability to steer states and societies toward sustainability. This paper presents a simulation-modeling approach to evaluate renewable energy readiness, that is, the ability to develop renewable energy, taking into account critical ecological, economic, governance, and institutional factors that generally shape energy policy. While the dynamics underlying shifts towards renewable energy are generic, we focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a counter-intuitive case. The UAE is a major oil rich and oil exporting country, with large untapped reserves. Yet it has made a policy decision to develop sources of renewable energy. The absence of basic institutional, managerial, and infrastructure requirements creates major barriers that must be surmounted if this policy is to be effectively pursued. For these and other reasons, the UAE serves as a "hard test" for the potentials of renewable energy and can eventually be used as a model for other oil exporting countries. The UAE has already made strides along a trajectory in trial and error ways. As such, it helps demonstrate in theory and practice the readiness for renewable energy-that can help articulate effective policy trajectories. Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71264 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z