https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141090 2026-04-08T18:09:15Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/165055 Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli Mounting concerns about safety and security have resulted in an intricate ecosystem system of guidelines, compliance measures, directives and policy reports for cybersecurity of all critical infrastructure. The policy paradox is that the text form of policy documents is an impediment to the implementation of policies and directives and creates potentially powerful opportunity costs. As a general practice, guidelines, directives and policy documents are presented in text form, page-by-page and word-by-word all supported by figures, diagrams and tables as needed. By definition text obscures properties of both policy and system-target in terms of dynamic relationships, feedback, “drill-down”, leads and lags, and so forth. The challenge is to develop analytics for cybersecurity policy of cyber physical systems. We begin with constructing (a) a structured system model of the system, in order to (b) identify major policydefined system-wide parameters, (c) situate system vulnerabilities, (d) map security requirements to security objectives, and (e) advance research on how system properties respond to diverse policy controls for security of cyber physical systems. This Project addresses the hard problem of policy-governed secure collaboration related to cyberphysical security of critical infrastructure (focusing on a generic and fundamental feature, namely smart grid of electric power systems). The purpose is to (a) reduce, if not eliminate barriers to full understanding of policy text as transmitted by the source, (b) explore system-wide or targeted implications, (c) help contextualize generic directives for specific applications, and (d) facilitate contingency analysis, as needed. This Compilation is based on the Quarterly Research Reports submitted by MIT to the Cyber- Physical Systems Organization of Vanderbilt University. The Compilation is the first of several Reports highlighting the research process and products of the MIT Project on Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems. Gaurav Agarwal [a.k.a. Gaurav], MIT alumnus, served as Lead Researcher for the Proof-of-Concept case presented here. 2024-10-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/148068 Politics of Global Environmental Change: A Conceptual Framework Choucri, Nazli "The emergence of climate change in the international political agenda is of recent origin. The possibility of environmental changes induced by human action is a relatively new factor in both the conduct and the study of international relations. It is now recognized that technological development, interacting with population trends and patterns of resource uses worldwide, has created problems of a global nature and globalized problems that had earlier been more local or regional in character. Not only do we live in an interdependent world but in an increasingly global one. This paper presents key conceptual and theoretical issues central to prospects for coordinated international responses and presents some empirical evidence. A major concern is depicting the characteristic requisites, conditions, and processes for managing the global environment as well as the principles for environmental management." 1991-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/147089 Population, Technology, and Resources in the Future International System Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert 1971-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146917 Policy Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are embedded in an increasingly complex ecosystem of cybersecurity policies, guidelines, and compliance measures designed to support all aspects of operation during all phases of system’s life cycle. By definition, such guidelines and policies are written in linear and sequential text form—word after word—often with different directives parts presented in different documents. This situation makes it difficult to integrate or understand policy-technology-security interactions. As a result, it also impedes effective risk assessment. Individually or collectively, these features inevitably undermine initiatives for cybersecurity. Missing are fundamental policy analytics to support CPS cybersecurity and facilitate policy implementation. This project is designed to develop a set of text-to-analytics methods and tools—for policy directives and for CPS properties—and provide a “proof of concept” focused on the smart grid of electric power systems. 2022-12-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146916 Analytics for Cybersecurity Policy of Cyber-Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Guidelines, directives, and policy statements are usually presented in “linear” text form—word after word, page after page. However necessary, this practice impedes full understanding, obscures feedback dynamics, hides mutual dependencies and cascading effects and the like—even when augmented with tables and diagrams. The net result is often a checklist response as an end in itself. All this creates barriers to intended realization of guidelines and undermines potential effectiveness. We present a solution strategy using text as “data”, transforming text into a structured model, and generate network views of the text(s), that we then can use for vulnerability mapping, risk assessments, and control point analysis. For proof of concept, we draw on NIST conceptual model and analysis of guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity, more than 600 pages of text. 2022-11-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146915 Ethics in Artificial Intelligence: Toward Foundations for Global Policy Choucri, Nazli Matters of ethics are becoming more salient at all levels of politics, almost everywhere. In the scientific community, ethics in AI is increasingly gaining attention. The fact is that the rate of change in AI innovations and applications are growing much faster than our general appreciation or understanding of content or of consequences. There is a large variety of statements, but few ethical practices by countries, corporations, and individuals that are desirable in the ethics domain for the broad area of Artificial intelligence. Occurring far less frequently—if at all—are the operational applications of ethics codes in the innovation, practice, and policy of AI. To date, the focus of attention is on scientific and technical advances, as well as enhanced computational advances. 2022-12-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/146914 Resource Scarcity and National Security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli Chapter 7 of New Perspectives for a Changing World Order (1991, American Association for the Advancement of Science) 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145867 Advocacy groups versus state power : creating global politics of the environment Ozeroff, Harry Cleveland. Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 1999; Includes bibliographical references (v. 2, p. 633-667). 1999-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145767 The dilemmas of United Nations peacekeeping in the post Cold War era Carey, Elizabeth Ann, 1975- Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2001; Includes bibliographical references (p. 135-137). 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145766 The effect of property rights protection on economic growth and environmental pollution : a cross-sectional time-series analysis Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin, 1970- Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 2001; Includes bibliographical references (p. 90-96). 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145765 State collapse : causes, dynamics and linkages to conflict McHugh, Gerard Paul, 1967- Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 1998; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-118). 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145764 Information networking as an instrument of sustainable development : the photovoltaic example Funk, Karina. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1997; Includes bibliographical references (p. 127-130). 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145763 Markets for energy efficiency--development, challenges, and opportunities : an analysis of the joint impacts of regulation and market forces on efficient residential and commercial end-use equipment Levin, Jeremy Ben. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1997; Includes bibliographical references (p. 116-124). 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145761 The paradoxes of industrial strategies : neoliberal reform and state intervention in Argentine industry from ISI to Martínez de Hoz. Dominguez, Ricardo Mario. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science, 1996; Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-87). 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145756 The future of Bahrain as a financial center Al Qassim, Abdul Razak Abdulla Hassan. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1994; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 86-88). 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145755 Bahrain's competitiveness in the aluminum industry Al Noaimi, Ahmed Saleh. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1994; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-113). 1994-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145753 Strategic plan for a new research and education institution in the Middle East Nasrallah, May.; Salty, Samer. Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1993; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 187-191). 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/145743 Information technology and sustainable development : understanding linkages in theory and practice Haghseta, Farnaz Saboori, 1974- Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 2003; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-86). 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144184 Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli This chapter examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the conse- quences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error. ln so doing, we shall draw upon our recent investigations into the long-range causes of international conflict. Our objective, during the past several years, has been to develop systematic procedures for isolating the determinants of international violence. The general approach we have employed is one common to any econometrician concerned with the analysis of time series data, or any statistician examining the properties of small samples. But our applications of these methods are not common to political analysis. Economists, for example, appear to know much more about the nature of market systems, business cycles, inflation, and so forth, than political analysts know about conflict and warfare, arms races, lateral pressure, or international alignments. 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144159 Cyberspace Operations Functional Capability Reference Architecture from Document Text Moulton, Allen; Madnick, Stuart. E.; Choucri, Nazli The COMET project applies structured text analysis, semantic similarity and ontology learning theory, along with NLP to investigate automated and semi-automated methods for extracting knowledge from text policy documents and transforming that knowledge into a structured form for use in a Functional Capability Reference Architecture (FCRA) for cyberspace operations. Progress and results are reported. Cyber-physical systems are increasingly significant to modern life. In the military, the advent of net-centric systems means that virtually all operations critically depend on computers and networks (Williams, 2014). The operation of the electric power grid is moving in the same direction (GAO, 2019) as are most other industries. As Choucri and Clark (2019) document, cyberspace has also become increasingly intertwined in international politics. To make cyber- physical systems more effective and to protect from threats that put critical services at risk, organizations rely on policy documents which are written from different perspectives often using different terminology. In many cases, terminology is metaphorical such as maneuver, attack and defense, which draw on analogies to concepts from physical domain military operations. A FCRA will support knowledge transfer across different subject areas and organizations by harmonizing and clarifying concepts (Cloutier et al., 2010). 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144066 GSSD (Word Mark) Choucri, Nazli; Baker, Wallace E. Mark Drawing 1000 - Typeset: Word(s)/letter(s)/number(s) Typeset Statements Goods and Services Computer software for analyzing complex multi-dimensional aspects of environmental problems that may be downloaded from a global computer network Goods and Services printed publications, namely, books, [ pamphlets, magazines, and journals] in the field of science and environmental technology Goods and Services [educational services, namely, conducting conferences and seminars in the field of environmental issues and environmental technology] 1997-03-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144065 Social Contract for the AI Age Dukakis, Michael; Vīķe-Freiberga, Vaira; Cerf, Vint; Choucri, Nazli; Lagumdzija, Zlatko; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Patterson, Thomas; Pentland, Alex; Rotenberg, Marc; Silbersweig, David Just as earlier social contracts helped shape societies for a common purpose, the Social Contract for the AI Age has a transformative vision, one that transcends the technological features of artificial intelligence and seeks to provide foundations for a new society. Consider, for example, how the Covid-19 pandemic urgently requires a new society with new structure and order, approach — new ways to share data and coordinate action, accelerated social reliance on digital service across businesses, education, and government services. The Social Contract for the AI Age would create standards for a new international system. It focuses on the conduct of each nation, relations with international business and not for profit entities, and the cooperation of nations. Just as TCP / IP is the platform for communication among internet users, the Social Contract for AI Age is a platform for connection among governments, stakeholders, and private and public institutions. 2020-09-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144064 The concept of AI-government: Core concepts for the design of AI-government Dukakis, Michael; Tuan, Nguyen Anh; Choucri, Nazli; Patterson, Thomas E-Government is the use of communication and information technology for improving the performance of public sector agencies. AI-Government transcends E-Government by applying AI to assist decision making for all critical public sector functions – notably provision of public services, performance of civic functions, and evaluation of public officials. At the core of AI- Government is the National Decision making and Data Center (NDMD). NDMD collects, stores, analyzes, and applies massive amounts of data relevant to the provision of public services and the evaluation of public programs and officials. It does not replace governance by humans or human decisional processes but guides and informs them, while providing an objective basis for service provision and evaluation. 2018-06-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144063 The AIWS 7-Layer Model to Build Next Generation Democracy Dukakis, Michael; Choucri, Nazli; Cytryn, Allan; Jones, Alex; Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Patterson, Thomas; Reveron, Derek; Silbersweig, David The Artificial Intelligence World Society (AIWS) is a set of values, ideas, concepts and protocols for standards and norms whose goal is to advance the peaceful development of AI to improve the quality of life for all humanity. It was conceived by the Michael Dukakis Institute for Leadership and Innovation (MDI) and established on November 22, 2017. The World Leadership Alliance – Club de Madrid (WLA-CdM) and the Boston Global Forum (BGF) are partnered with the MDI to collaborate and develop the AIWS initiative. The President of WLA-CdM, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, serves as co-chair of AIWS activities and conferences along with Governor Michael Dukakis. The Next Generation Democracy (NGD) is an initiative founded by WLA-CdM with the goal of “enabling democracy to meet the expectations and needs of all citizens and preserve their freedom and dignity while securing a sustainable future.” NGD is a collaboration and forum, coordinated by WLA-CdM. AIWS has partnered with WLA-CdM to promote the development of AI to support the Next Generation Democracy initiative. To align the development of AI with the NGD initiative, the AIWS has developed the AIWS 7-Layer Model. This model establishes a set of responsible norms and best practices for the development, management, and uses of AI so that this technology is safe, humanistic and beneficial to society. In developing the 7-Layer Model, the AIWS recognizes that we live in a chaotic world with differing, and sometimes conflicting, goals, values and concepts of norms. Hence, the Model is aspirational and even idealistic. Nonetheless, it provides a baseline for guiding AI development to ensure positive outcomes and to reduce the risks of pervasive and realistic risks and the related harms that AI could pose to humanity. The Model is based on the assumption that humans ultimately accountable for the develop0ment and use of AI, and must therefore preserve that accountability. Hence, it stresses transparency of AI reasoning, applications, and decision making, which will lead to auditability and validation of the uses of AI systems. 2018-04-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144062 Institutions for Cyber Security: International Responses and Data Sharing Initiatives Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E; Koepke, P. Almost everyone recognizes the salience of cyberspace as a fact of daily life. Given its ubiquity, scale, and scope, cyberspace has become a fundamental feature of the world we live in and has created a new reality for almost everyone in the developed world and increasingly for people in in the developing world. This paper seeks to provide an initial baseline, for representing and tracking institutional responses to a rapidly changing international landscape, real as well as virtual. We shall argue that the current institutional landscape managing security issues in the cyber domain has developed in major ways, but that it is still “under construction.” We also expect institutions for cyber security to support and reinforce the contributions of information technology to the development process. We begin with (a) highlights of international institutional theory and an empirical “census” of the institutions-in-place for cyber security, and then turn to (b) key imperatives of information technology-development linkages and the various cyber processes that enhance developmental processes, (c) major institutional responses to cyber threats and cybercrime as well select international and national policy postures and so critical for industrial countries and increasingly for developing states as well, and (d) the salience of new mechanisms designed specifically in response to cyber threats. This is update and expansion of a paper that has been published in the Information Technology for Development, 2013, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02681102.2013.836699#.Unfi8eKiJO8. DOI: 10.1080/02681102.2013.836699 2017-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/142889 Knowledge Networking for Technology Leapfrogging Choucri, Nazli Globalization imposes new demands and new opportunities in access to knowledge and its applications. Knowledge networking can accelerate this access and the sharing of information about technology choices. Developing countries thus can “leapfrog” directly to “frontier” technologies which are more effective, cleaner, and less costly than the usual infrastructure. To seek these benefits, Professor Nazli Choucri of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Political Science offers a “no-risk” strategy for knowledge networking, technology advancement and capacity-building. 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141786 The Perceptual Base of Nonalignment Choucri, Nazli Almost two-thirds of the nations in the world have chosen not to join either of the two dominant alliance systems- the Communist or the Western. Most of these states, generally known as the "third world," are Afro-Asian and their nonalignment signifies freedom from constraints imposed by alli- ances with major powers (Rossi, 1963). While it is misleading to consider the non-aligned states as a group homogeneous in attitude and behavior, the degree of varia- tion among them is largely an empirical question. This study examines the attitudinal orientation of three Afro-Asian nations - India, Egypt, and Indonesia-during the latter 1950s and early 1960s, an important period in the development of nonalignment. Our primary objective is to identify the more general perceptions at the base of this policy. The model of the international system implicit in our analysis is admittedly oversimplified, for the world is more com- plex than simply major powers and non- aligned states. However, for the purpose of systematic analysis, a parsimonous model is more useful than an intricate, though undoubtedly more realistic, portrayal of the international system. This study is part of a larger project examining the attitudes and behavior of nonaligned states in the international system. I would like to thank Ole Holsti, Robert C. North, John O. Field, and Jean Veevers for helpful comments. The assistance of the Stanford University Computation Center is also gratefully acknowledged. Throughout this study the tenn nonalignment refers to a policy of official nonparticipation in the Cold War conflict, to be distinguished from other variants of nonalliance like neutrality and isolationism. 1967-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141785 Population dynamics and international violence: Propositions, insights, and evidence Choucri, Nazli This volume is divided into three parts. Part I is based on an exhaustive study of the literature dealing directly and indirectly with the relations between population dynamics and international violence. Part II focuses entirely on empirical materials gathered from an examination of violence in the developing world and seeks to explore systematically whether population changes have influenced the beginnings or the outcomes of violent conflicts. Part III consists of a review of major themes, a section of concluding statements, and a short chapter given over to discussion of issues of policy and research in the field connecting demographic and political behavior. “This volume by Professor Nazli Choucri constitutes a rare effort to explore in a systematic way the connection between outbreaks of violence in international relations and the population dynamics of the system. This book represents a first step toward regaining lost ground; it carries on an informed exploration of a critically important corner of the field, and equally laudably, it presents its material in such a manner that the bulk of the findings form a natural point of departure for new research.” A. F. K. Organski, The American Political Science Review 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141784 Nations in conflict: National growth and international violence Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. Each equation in the model represents a “piece” of a dynamic system of simultaneous equations, with the variables signaling the individual factors shaping the overall dynamics over time. Rendered in the form of an econometric model, the system consists of (a) growth and expansion, (b) intersection and collision national of interests, (c) military competition leading to greater military expenditures, (d) alliances and counter-alliances and (e) evidence of violent behavior – all constituting the escalating dynamics of a conflict spiral that, almost inevitably, results in war. This book examines conflict patterns among great powers from 1870 to 1914 using historical inquiry as well as econometric analysis – thus yielding an integrated narrative based by statistical results and parameter estimates for a system of simultaneous equations. 1975-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141783 International politics of energy interdependence: The case of petroleum Choucri, Nazli; Ferraro, V. This is about the worldwide interdependence generated by increased petroleum trade and higher prices, and the constraints on international behavior of virtually all states – created by the events surrounding the historic oil prices hikes of 1973. It provides a corrective to the overwhelming economic-centric views of these events. The conflicts over petroleum prices, imports and exports, and the distribution of market shares are symptomatic of more basic political differences. Part I is an introduction to petroleum politics and the world oil market. Part II examines the new tensions and strategic vulnerabilities that shaped the global order for the remainder of the 20th century. Part III presents a timely introduction to, and some speculates about, the potential effects of alternative energy sources. The energy problem is basically a political one – it emanates from disputes over who controls energy transactions, what the rules of the game are, who gains and who loses, and at what cost to whom. 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141782 International energy futures: Petroleum prices, power and payments Choucri, Nazli This book, with the collaboration of David Scot Ross and Brian Pollins, constructs the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) as a system dynamics model to explore a set of propositions about future price, politics, and market configurations. Central to the analyses is the role of strategic vulnerability as a distinct variable that influences and is influenced by interactions among producers and consumers in a changing market. The book is in four parts. Part I reviews the politics of the international petroleum trade. Part II is the intellectual core of the book and focuses on the analytical structure of the IPE model and on the simulation results of interactions among key actors. Part III appraises the model’s results and their implications. Part IV puts forth some tentative assessments of the model’s predictive capacities and highlights alternative prospects for various energy policies given different price situations. “… Choucri’s timely study…examines critically the ‘interconnections between political and economic factors in the world energy market….’ (p ix). To an impressive extent the economic simulation analysis contained in her work testifies to this reality…. [this] attests amply to the genuine professionalism and laudable research design acumen of its intellectual architect”. Christopher Joyner, American Political Science Review 1981-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141781 Energy and development in Latin America: Perspectives for public policy Choucri, Nazli This book is in four parts. Each seeks to adopt an empirical as well as policy perspective. Accordingly, the focus is on data availability and macro-economic and policy perspectives. First is attention to the basic parameters of energy in the region with an emphasis on energy in transportation. Second is attention to economic factors, with a focus on the demographic drivers of economic activity and implications for transportation and development. Third is a policy perspective focusing on the role of government, state petroleum enterprises, and pressure for social adjustment to new and stressful conditions. The fourth part seeks to highlight new influences and new opportunities. A final section addresses implications for transportation and puts forth the alternative criteria for policy choices consistent with different development objectives. An early attempt to develop empirical perspective on the economics and politics of energy in the region, with all the hazards associated with dilemmas of data coverage and reliability associated with the emergence of a relatively new problem-area. 1982-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141780 Multidisciplinary perspectives on population and conflict Choucri, Nazli Motivated by Population Dynamics and International Violence (1974) this book begins with 10 prepositions that set the stage for unbundling the population variables on the one hand, and the manifestations of conflict on the other, and puts forth some initial observations of the linkage factors that connect demographic conditions to propensities for hostilities, escalation, and overt violence. Eight chapters address critical facets of basic factors as well as the linkage process. Attention is initially given to the role of the individual as well as the impacts of groups and aggregations. This is followed by a focus on the economic dimensions of conflict and then, by the political dimensions thereof, on local national and international contexts. Against this background, two chapters provide important integrating functions in terms of theory and policy. The first centers on policy. Among the issues examined are the images policy makers have of population, the implications for the military, the role of historical memory, and influences on public policy. The second is on theory. It provides a systematic view of the sources of conflict. Its major contribution is to situate the role of population dynamics – and different population variables – in shaping the interactive trajectory leading to violence known as the conflict spiral. Detailed investigations – step by step and in different contexts – of the many ways in which population variables, individually or jointly, contribute to conflict, escalation, and war. 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141779 The challenge of Japan before World War II and after: A study of national growth and expansion Choucri, Nazli; Yamakage, S.; North, Robert C. This book explores the sources and consequences of national growth and external expansion for international security, competition, and warfare. Expansion may take on many forms, each with different consequences. Japan since the Meiji restoration offered an important opportunity for analysis. The country’s uneven development – shaped by its population resources, and technology – posed serious challenges leading to conflict and war, followed by periods of peace, and then more war – all over a period of one hundred years or so. A combination of historical narrative and econometric analysis traces the complex challenges before World War I and after, and before World War II and after. The major strength of the lateral pressure framework lies in its capacity to provide a causal logic for (a) linking the dynamics of (uneven) growth in a state’s core features in terms of people, technology, and resources, (b) demonstrating empirically the relative strength of these variables in overall state capacity, (c) shaping economic, institutional and political factors, and (d) creating defining conditions for policies and decisions. This book follows Nations in Conflict as the next large scale study of national growth, external expansion, and international violence. At the core of these studies is the theory of lateral pressure. 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141778 Mapping sustainability: Knowledge e-networking and the value chain Choucri, Nazli; Mistree, Dinsha; Haghseta, Farnaz; Mezher, Toufic; Baker, Wallace R.; Ortiz, Carlos I. The focus is on three interdependent research initiatives designed to facilitate the management of transitions toward sustainable development. First, mapping sustainability as a knowledge domain, second, contributing to the development of global knowledge e-networking and extending the knowledge value chain, and third, exploring new methods to expand our knowledge and to improve e-networking practices. While the activities differ in nature, scale and scope, they are highly interconnected. It is our hope that, jointly, they will contribute to our common quest for a sustainable future. The central theme of this book, connecting its different parts, is about ways of transcending critical barriers to the effective use of knowledge and e-networking. Of special relevance is the development of new approaches to the provision and transmission of knowledge – from local sources to global networks and from global sources to local networks. In many ways, this is a book of theory and methods, as well as policy and performance. New ways of looking at ‘sustainable development’ in integrated and holistic terms, exploring knowledge and knowledge-management of sustainability. 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141777 Lost in cyberspace: Harnessing the Internet, international relations, and global security Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel Early in the twenty-first century, new, cyber-based threats to the well-being of individuals, economies, and societies added a new dimension to the well-understood threats of the twentieth century. For the first time in human history, advances in information and communications technologies are potentially accessible to much of the world’s population. These Internet based advances allow almost anyone to disseminate messages, meaning that a wide range of actors, state and nonstate, have the potential to disrupt networks and commerce with relatively little fear of discovery. In cyberspace, it is hard to know with certainty what is behind a particular action—and actions in one place can have effects around the world. A powerful example of how advances in cyberspace have changed the national security environment is the deployment of Stuxnet, a complex piece of malicious software that reportedly damaged the uranium enrichment facilities of Iran’s nuclear program (Broad and Sanger, 2010). Both Israel and the United States have been blamed as creators of the virus, but in part because of the nature of cyberspace, the origin of the software remains in dispute.1 Another apparent case of international relations conducted in cyberspace were the 2007 cyber attacks that overwhelmed the websites of prominent Estonian organizations, including public-sector agencies, banks, and media firms. Some Estonian officials blamed Russia for the attacks, but responsibility was never proved. Similarly, in 2010 Google announced that it and a variety of high-tech, security, and defense firms had been targeted in an attempt, apparently originating in China, to gain access to and steal valuable digitized information. The episode resulted in a temporary shutdown of Google’s China site. 2012-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141774 Cyber international relations as an integrated system Vaishnav, Chintan; Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D International Relations (IR) – whether in pursuit of wealth or power – have been traditionally predicated upon the dominance of the State and the effectiveness of geographical boundaries. The Internet has shattered these assumptions. Consequently, the properties of information goods such as information security, control, or freedom, or those of international activities such as trade, or diplomacy must be framed in the context of emergent behaviors of a system where the Cyberspace interacts with traditional IR. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and International Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call Cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) System, and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods of engineering systems. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodology. We begin by identifying important actors in Cyberspace and IR, and the core functions they perform for their respective systems. In doing so, we disambiguate important questions of system boundary. We then create a domain structure matrix (DSM) of the interdependencies among the core functions of the various actors. This method enables us to integrate the domains of Cyberspace and IR that we then examine in two ways. First, we qualitatively analyze DSM to show how Cyber-IR is characterized by the activities of multiple actors who are interdependent in various ways, and who are highly heterogeneous in their roles and capabilities. Second, we perform quantitative analysis using several matrix-based techniques to illustrate and verify how certain core functions are more important than others, and why attributes such as geographical location, economic status, etc., of the actor shape their influence in Cyber- IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors, and the various outcomes that could result from it. 2012-06-18T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141773 Experiences and challenges with using CERT data to analyze international cyber security. Madnick, Stuart E.; Li, Xitong; Choucri, Nazli With the increasing interconnection of computer networks and sophistication of cyber attacks, it is important to understand the dynamics of such situations, especially in regards to cyber international relations. The Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard Project is an initiative to gather worldwide cybersecurity data publicly provided by nation-level Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) and to provide a set of tools to analyze the cybersecurity data. The unique contributions of this paper are: (1) an evaluation of the current state of the diverse nation-level CERT cybersecurity data sources, (2) a description of the Data Dashboard tool developed and some interesting analyses from using our tool, and (3) a summary of some challenges with the CERT data availability and usability uncovered in our research. 2009-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141769 Cyber international relations as an integrated system Vaishnav, Chintan; Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the hitherto separate domains of Cyberspace and Interna- tional Relations into an integrated socio-technical system that we jointly call the cyber International Relations (Cyber-IR) system and to identify and analyze its emergent properties utilizing the methods common to science and engineering systems adapted here for the social sciences. Our work is an exploration in both theory and methodol- ogy. This paper (a) identifies the actors and functions in the core systems, Cyberspace, and IR, (b) disambiguates sys- tem boundary, (c) creates a design structure matrix (DSM), a matrix of the interdependencies among functions of actors, (d) analyzes DSM qualitatively to show multiple interdependent and heterogeneous Cyber-IR properties, and (e) analyzes quantitatively the differential importance of core functions as well as the impact of actor attributes on influence in Cyber-IR. This work forms a baseline for further understanding of the nature of the heterogeneous influences of the various actors and the various outcomes that could result from it. 2017-11-17T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141768 Institutions for cyber security: International responses and global imperatives Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Ferwerda, Jeremy Almost everyone recognizes the salience of cyberspace as a fact of daily life. Given its ubiquity, scale, and scope, cyberspace has become a fundamental feature of the world we live in and has created a new reality for almost everyone in the developed world and increasingly for people in the developing world. This paper seeks to provide an initial baseline, for representing and tracking institutional responses to a rapidly changing international landscape, real as well as virtual. We shall argue that the current institutional landscape managing security issues in the cyber domain has developed in major ways, but that it is still “under construction.” We also expect institutions for cyber security to support and reinforce the contributions of information technology to the development process. We begin with (a) highlights of international institutional theory and an empirical “census” of the institutions-in-place for cyber security, and then turn to (b) key imperatives of information technology-development linkages and the various cyber processes that enhance developmental processes, (c) major institutional responses to cyber threats and cyber crime as well as select international and national policy postures so critical for industrial countries and increasingly for developing states as well, and (d) the salience of new mechanisms designed specifically in response to cyber threats. 2013-10-22T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141765 What is cybersecurity? Explorations in automated knowledge generation Choucri, Nazli; Elbait, Gihan Daw; Madnick, Stuart E. This paper addresses a serious impediment to theory and policy for cybersecurity: Trivial as it might appear on the surface, there is no agreed upon understanding of the issue, no formal definition, and not even a consensus on the mere spelling of the terms –– so that efforts to develop policies and postures, or capture relevant knowledge are seriously hampered. In this context, we present a “proof of concept” for a new research strategy based on a close examination of a large corpus of scholarly knowledge, and the extent to which it enables us to generate new knowledge about cybersecurity of relevance to international relations and to national security relevant to the nation’s security and to international relations. Given the new cyber realities, this paper is also a “proof” of how to create new knowledge through automated investigations of the record to date. 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141758 Perspectives on cybersecurity: A collaborative study Choucri, Nazli; Jackson, Chrisma 1. Cybersecurity – Problems, Premises, Perspectives 2 An Abbreviated Technical Perspective on Cybersecurity 3 The Conceptual Underpinning of Cyber Security Studies 4 Cyberspace as the Domain of Content 5 DoD Perspective on Cyberspace 6 China’s Perspective on Cyber Security 7 Pursuing Deterrence Internationally in Cyberspace 8 Is Deterrence Possible in Cyber Warfare? 9 A Theoretical Framework for Analyzing Interactions between Contemporary Transnational Activism and Digital Communication 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141757 Integrating cyberspace and international relations: The co-evolution dilemma Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D Cyberspace is a fact of daily life. Until recently cyberspace was considered largely a matter of low politics – the term used to denote background conditions and routine decisions and processes. By contrast high politics is about national security, core institutions, and decision systems that are critical to the state, its interests, and its underlying values. We now see cyberspace shaping the domain of high politics, and high politics shaping the future of cyberspace. The field of international relations, rooted in 20th century issues and theories, has not kept pace with the emerging significance of cyberspace. This paper addresses what we call the co-evolution dilemma: as cyberspace and international politics now start to shape each other, we have few conceptual anchors to fully identify, let alone model, the potential collision of law, policy and practice in the cyber arena with shared norms, common practices, and modes of interactions in international relations that have evolved over time. At a minimum, we need to develop a map of the joint domain of cyberspace and international relations. Our purpose here is to (1) develop an alignment strategy to connect the Internet, the core of cyberspace, and international relations (2) introduce the control point analysis, a method we have developed to explicate dynamics among cyber-actors, in terms of their relative power and influence, and (3) highlight critical co-evolution parameters embedded in the fabric of world politics. 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141755 Resilient mechanism design foundations for governance of cyberspace: Exploration in theory, strategy, and policy Micali, Silvio; Choucri, Nazli; Chen, Jing; Williams, Cindy Three related trends in world politics – shifting in power relations, increased diversity of actors and entities, and the growing mobilization and politicization of global constituencies are contributing to a global “tussle” which threatens to erupt in a full-fledged international confrontation. Such contests may well reinforce the potentially powerful cleavages, such as those that became evident before, during, and after the World Conference on Information Technology, WCIT-2012. If present trends continue, it is unlikely that WCIT-2013 will reduce the cleavages and resolve the contentions. We would like to thank Professor Lucas Stanczyk, Department of Political Science, MIT, for comments on an earlier version. 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141754 Exploring terms and taxonomies relating to the cyber international relations research field: Or are "cyberspace" and "cyber space" the same? Camiña, Steven; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Woon, Wei Lee This project has at least two facets to it: (1) advancing the algorithms in the sub-field of bibliometrics often referred to as "text mining" whereby hundreds of thousands of documents (such as journal articles) are scanned and relationships amongst words and phrases are established and (2) applying these tools in support of the Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) research effort. In international relations, it is important that all the parties understand each other. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. As an example, when we started, we assumed that "cyberspace" and "cyber space" were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between "cyber" and "space") and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the taxonomies that would be constructed by our algorithms using "cyberspace" and "cyber space" as seed terms would be basically the same. As it turned out, they were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cyber international relations is so new, understanding the field and how people think about (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal as part of the overall ECIR project. 2011-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141753 The dynamics of undersea cables: Emerging opportunities and pitfalls Sechrist, Michael; Vaishnav, Chintan; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli Cyberspace is built on physical foundations that support the “virtual” manifestations we know of and use in everyday computing. Physical infrastructure can include wired, fiber optic, satellite and microwave links, as well as routing equipment. An often overlooked but critical part of the Internet infrastructure is undersea communication cable links. Undersea cables are the technology of choice to move large amounts of data around the world quickly. In the U.S., approximately 95% of all international Internet and phone traffic travel via undersea cables. Nearly all government traffic, including sensitive diplomatic and military orders, travels these cables to reach officials in the field. The problem, however, is that the undersea cable infrastructure is susceptible to several types of vulnerability, including: rising capacity constraints, increased exposure to disruption from both natural and mad-made sources, and emerging security risks from cable concentration in dense geographical networks (such as New York and New Jersey, and places like Egypt/Suez Canal.) Moreover, even under normal working conditions, there is a concern whether governance-as-usual can keep up with the future growth of Internet traffic. In this paper, we explore the impact of these problems on the dynamics of managing undersea cable infrastructure. 2012-07-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141752 Comparative analysis of cybersecurity metrics to develop new hypotheses Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Li, Xitong; Ferwerda, Jeremy Few Internet security organizations provide comprehensive, detailed, and reliable quantitative metrics, especially in the international perspective across multiple countries, multiple years, and multiple categories. As common refrain to justify this situation, organizations ask why they should spend valuable time and resources collecting and standardizing data. This report aims to provide an encouraging answer to this question by demonstrating the value that even limited metrics can provide in a comparative perspective. We present some findings generated through the use of a research tool, the Explorations in Cyber Internet Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard. In essence, this dashboard consists of a simple graphing and analysis tool, coupled with a database consisting of data from disparate national-level cyber data sources provided by governments, Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs), and international organizations. Users of the dashboard can select relevant security variables, compare various countries, and scale information as needed. In this paper, using this tool, we present an example of observations concerning the fight against cybercrime, along with several hypotheses attempting to explain the findings. We believe that these preliminary results suggest valuable ways in which such data could be used and we hope this research will help provide the incentives for organizations to increase the quality and quantity of standardized quantitative data available. 2011-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141751 Towards better understanding cybersecurity: Or are "cyberspace" and "cyber space" the same? Madnick, Stuart E.; Camiña, Steven; Choucri, Nazli; Woon, Wei Lee Although there are many technology challenges and approaches to attaining cybersecurity, human actions (or inactions) also often pose large risks. There are many reasons, but one problem is whether we all “see the world” the same way. That is, what does “cybersecurity” actually mean – as well as the many related concepts, such as “cyberthreat,” “cybercrime,” etc. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. If we are to have an effective solution, it is important that all the parties understand each other – or, at least, understand that there are different perspectives. For the purpose of this poster and to demonstrate our methodology, we consider the case of the words, “cyberspace” and “cyber space.” We had developed techniques and algorithms for the automated generation of taxonomies for chosen “seed terms” (such as “cyberspace” and “cyber space”) based on the co-occurrence of those words in the list of keywords of documents in large document repositories, such as Compendex and Inspec. The system that we had developed and used in this experiment employed the Heymann algorithm, closeness centrality, cosine similarity metric (which we refer to as H-CC). When we started, we assumed that “cyberspace” and “cyber space” were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between “cyber” and “space”) and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the usage of these words would be basically the same and would produce roughly similar taxonomies. As it turned out, the taxonomies generated were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cybersecurity is so new, understanding the field and how people think about it (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal. Our approach helps to illuminate these understandings. 2012-12-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141750 Explorations in cyber international relations (ECIR)—data dashboard report #1: CERT data sources and prototype dashboard system Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Camiña, Steven; Fogg, Erik; Li, Xitong; Woon, Wei Lee Growing global interconnection and interdependency of computer networks, in combination with increased sophistication of cyber attacks over time, demonstrate the need for better understanding of the collective and cooperative security measures needed to prevent and respond to cybersecurity emergencies. The Exploring Cyber International Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard project is an initial effort to gather and analyze such data within and between countries. This report describes the prototype ECIR Data Dashboard and the initial data sources used. In 1988, the United States Department of Defense and Carnegie Mellon University formed the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) to lead and coordinate national and international efforts to combat cybsersecurity threats. Since then, the number of CERTs worldwide has grown dramatically, leading to the potential for a sophisticated and coordinated global cybersecurity response network. This report focuses primarily on the current state of the worldwide CERTs, including the data publicly available, the extent of coordination, and the maturity of data management and responses. The report summarizes, analyses, and critiques the worldwide CERT network. Additionally, the report describes the ECIR team's Data Dashboard project, designed to provide scholars, policymakers, IT professionals, and other stakeholders with a comprehensive set of data on national-level cybersecurity, information technology, and demographic data. The Dashboard allows these stakeholders to observe chronological trends and multivariate correlations that can lead to insight into the current state, potential future trends, and approximate causes of global cybersecurity issues. This report summarizes the purpose, state, progress, and challenges of developing the Data Dashboard project. Disclaimer: This report relies on publicly available information, especially from the CERTs’ pubic web sites. They have not yet been contacted to confirm our understanding of their data. That will be done in subsequent phases of this effort. 2009-08-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141749 System dynamics modeling for pro-active intelligence Anderson, Ed; Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael; Sturtevant, Dan The Pro-Active Intelligence (PAINT) program, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was formed to address the challenges1 posed by distributed human networks, including terrorists and insurgencies, both independent and state-sponsored. In particular, certain threats (including emerging dual-use technologies) are difficult to detect using traditional intelligence means because: (a) indicators are difficult to discern and may give little warning time, (b) there is usually limited relevant data collection and integration capability, and (c) expertise is generally diverse and disconnected. Over the course of 18 months from September 2007 to February 2009, an effort, led by researchers from MIT, was initiated to develop computational social science models to study and understand the dynamics of complex intelligence targets for nefarious technology activities (broadly defined as activities outside U.S. national interest). System dynamics models were developed because they offered great opportunities to (a) understand and represent determinants of nefarious technology development, (b) to identify aspects of critical pathways, such as resource management, towards the development of nefarious technologies, and (c) support a modeling based strategy for the identification of new sources of intelligence. This report describes the “System Dynamics Modeling for Pro-Active Intelligence” effort and its two thrusts: (a) development of a comprehensive holistic system dynamics model to represent, understand, and differentiate nefarious and benign activities and (b) the development of a detailed system dynamics resource model that can be used as a component of a multi-method federation of models. In both cases, simulations were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of these models in demonstrating system behavior and, on occasion, highlighting potentially counter-intuitive behaviors. Final Report: Proactive Intelligence (PAINT) CONTRACT FA8750-07-C-0101 ISSUED BY AFRL/IFKE CODE FA8750 6. ADMINISTERED BY CODE N62879 USAF, AFMC AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY 26 ELECTRONIC PARKWAY ROME NY 13441-4514 2009-11-04T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141746 Cyber Acquisition: Policy Changes to Drive Innovation in Response to Accelerating Threats in Cyberspace Klemas, Thomas; Lively, Rebecca K.; Choucri, Nazli The United States of America faces great risk in the cyber domain because our adversaries are growing bolder, increasing in number, improving their capabilities, and doing so rapidly. Meanwhile, the associated technologies are evolving so quickly that progress to harden and secure this domain is ephemeral, as systems reach obsolescence in just a few years and revolutionary paradigm shifts, such as cloud computing and ubiquitous mobile devices, can pull the rug out from the best laid defensive planning by introducing entirely new regimes of operations. Contemplating these facts in the context of Department of Defense acquisitions is particularly sobering, because many cyber capabilities, bought within the traditional acquisition framework, may be of limited usefulness by the time that they are delivered to the warfighters. Thus, it is a strategic imperative to improve DoD acquisitions pertaining to cyber capabilities. This paper proposes novel ideas and a framework for addressing these challenges. 2018-11-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141745 Accelerating Cyber Acquisitions: Introducing a Time-Driven Approach to Manage Risks with Less Delay Klemas, Thomas; Atkins, Sean; Lively, Rebecca K.; Choucri, Nazli The highly dynamic nature of the cyber domain demands that cyber operators are capable of rapidly evolving and adapting with exquisite timing. These forces, in turn, pressure acquisition specialists to accoutre cyber warfighters to keep pace with both cyber domain advancement and adversary progression. However, in the Department of Defense (DoD), a vigorous tug of war exists between time and risk pressures. Risk reduction is a crucial element of managing any complex enterprise and this is particularly true for the DoD and its acquisition program [1]. This risk aversion comes at significant cost, as obsolescence by risk minimization is a real phenomenon in DoD acquisition programs and significantly limits the adaptability of its operational cyber forces. Our previous research generated three recommendations for reforming policy to deliver performance at the “speed of relevance” [3]. In this paper we focus on one of the recommendations: “Manage rather than avoid risk—especially time-based risks”. While this advice can apply to many areas of human endeavor, it has elevated urgency in cyberspace. Incomplete risk metrics lead to overly conservative acquisition efforts that imperil timely procurement of advanced cyber capabilities and repel innovators. Effective cyber defense operations require acquisition risk models to be extended beyond fiscal and technical risk metrics of performance, to include risks associated with the cost of failing to meet immediate mission requirements. This paper proposes a time-shifting approach to simultaneously (a) accelerate capability delivery while maintaining traditional rigor, and (b) achieve optimal balance between fiscal, performance, and time risks. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141744 CyberIR@MIT: Knowledge for Science, Policy, Practice Choucri, Nazli; Fairman, Lauren; Agarwal, Gaurav This paper presents a brief introduction to CyberIR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. CyberIR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (see ecir.mit.edu) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions. The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation—embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with search and retrieval functions. 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141743 Policy-Governed Secure Collaboration: Toward Analytics for Cybersecurity of Cyber- Physical Systems Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav; Koutsoukos, Xenofon Mounting concerns about safety and security have resulted in an intricate ecosystem of guidelines, compliance measures, directives and policy reports for cybersecurity of all critical infrastructure. By definition, such guidelines and policies are written in linear sequential text form that makes them difficult to integrate, or to understand the policy-technology-security interactions, thus limiting their relevance for science of security. We propose to develop text-to-analytics methods and tools focusing on CPS domains such as smart grids. 2018-03-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141742 Complexity of International Law for Cyber Operations Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Policy documents are usually written in text form—word after word, sentence after sentence, page after page, section after section, chapter after chapter—which often masks some of their most critical features. The text form cannot easily show interconnections among elements, identify the relative salience of issues, or represent feedback dynamics, for example. These are “hidden” features that are difficult to situate. This paper presents a computational analysis of Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations, a seminal work in International Law. Tallinn Manual 2.0 is a seminal document for many reasons, including but not limited to, its (a) authoritative focus on cyber operations, (b) foundation in the fundamental legal principles of the international order and (c) direct relevance to theory, practice, and policy in international relations. The results identify the overwhelming dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, the Rules with autonomous standing (that is, not connected to the rest of the corpus), and highlight different aspects of Tallinn Manual 2.0, notably situating authority, security of information -- the feedback structure that keeps the pieces together. This study serves as a “proof of concept” for the use of computational logics to enhance our understanding of policy documents. 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141741 Complexity of International Law for Cyber Operations Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Policy documents are usually written in text form—word after word, sentence after sentence etc.— which often obscures some of their most critical features. Text cannot easily situate interconnections among elements, or identify feedback, nor reveal other embedded features. This paper presents a computational approach to International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations 2.0, Tallinn Manual, a seminal work of 600 pages at the intersection of law and cyberspace. The results identify the dominance of specific Rules, the centrality of select Rules, and Rules with autonomous standing, as well as the feedback structure that holds the system together. None of these features are evident from the text alone. 2021-11-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141740 Securing the Long-Chain of Cyber-Physical Global Communication Infrastructure Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Executive Order, May 2019 states: November 5, 2019 “...foreign adversaries are increasingly creating and exploiting vulnerabilities in information and communications technology and services ... in order to commit malicious cyber-enabled actions, including economic and industrial espionage against the United States and its people.” [1] This paper focuses on the challenges of securing the long chain of global communication infrastructure, presents some illustrative data, and puts forth a multi-method research design for analysis of long-chain systems of information and/or communications technology, infrastructure, services, ownership, providers, and networks -- within a state and outside its jurisdiction – all essential for unimpeded global operations. A proof of concept for data requirements to support end-to-end integrated research is provided, along with highlights of some initial empirical analysis, with China as a case in point. 2019-11-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141739 The Theory of Lateral Pressure: Highlights of Quantification and Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli The term lateral pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of states, firms, and other entities to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. This chapter presents the core features—assumptions, logic, core variables, and dynamics—and summarizes the quantitative work undertaken to date. Some aspects of the theory analysis are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Initially applied to the causes of war, the theory focuses on the question of: Who does what, when, how, and with what consequences? The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers (i.e., the master variables that shape the profiles of states) through the intervening variables (i.e., aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities), and the outcomes often generate added complexities. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries, driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations, they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics that lead to hostilities, escalation, and eventually conflict and violence. The quantitative analysis of lateral pressure theory consists of six distinct phases. The first phase began with a large-scale, cross- national, multiple equation econometric investigation of the 45 years leading to World War I, followed by a system of simultaneous equations representing conflict dynamics among competing powers in the post–World War II era. The second phase is a detailed econometric analysis of Japan over the span of more than a century and two World Wars. The third phase of lateral pressure involves system dynamics modeling of growth and expansion of states from 1970s to the end of the 20th century and explores the use of fuzzy logic in this process. The fourth phase focuses on the state-based sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to endogenize the natural environment in the study of international relations. The fifth phase presents a detailed ontology of the driving variables shaping lateral pressure and their critical constituents in order to (a) frame their interconnections, (b) capture knowledge on sustainable development, (c) create knowledge management methods for the search, retrieval, and use of knowledge on sustainable development and (d) examine the use of visualization techniques for knowledge display and analysis. The sixth, and most recent, phase of lateral pressure theory and empirical analysis examines the new realities created by the construction of cyberspace and interactions with the traditional international order. 2017-07-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141738 Analytics for Smart Grid Cybersecurity Choucri, Nazli; Agarwal, Gaurav Guidelines, directives, and policy statements are usually presented in “linear” text form – word after word, page after page. However necessary, this practice impedes full understanding, obscures feedback dynamics, hides mutual dependencies and cascading effects and the like, -- even when augmented with tables and diagrams. The net result is often a checklist response as an end in itself. All this creates barriers to intended realization of guidelines and undermines potential effectiveness. We present a solution strategy using text as “data”, transforming text into a structured model, and generate a network views of the text(s), that we then can use for vulnerability mapping, risk assessments and control point analysis. We apply this approach using two NIST reports on cybersecurity of smart grid, more than 600 pages of text. Here we provide a synopsis of approach, methods, and tools. (Elsewhere we consider (a) system-wide level, (b) aviation e- landscape, (c) electric vehicles, and (d) SCADA for smart grid). 2017-04-25T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141737 Framework for Global Accord on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Choucri, Nazli Advances in information and communication technologies – global Internet, social media, Internet of Things, and a range of related science-driven innovations and generative and emergent technologies – continue to shape a dynamic communication and information ecosystem for which there is no precedent. These advances are powerful in many ways. Foremost among these in terms of salience, ubiquity, pervasiveness, and expansion in scale and scope is the broad area of artificial intelligence. They have created a new global ecology; yet they remain opaque and must be better understood— an ecology of “knowns” that is evolving in ways that remain largely “unknown.” Especially compelling is the acceleration of Artificial Intelligence – in all its forms – with far-ranging applications shaping a new global ecosystem for which there is no precedent. This chapter presents a brief view of the most pressing challenges, articulates the logic for worldwide agreement to retain the rule of law in the international system, and presents salient features of an emergent International Accord on Artificial Intelligence. The Framework for Artificial Intelligence International Accord (AIIA) is an initial response to this critical gap in the system of international rules and regulations. 2022-07-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141724 The role of cyberspace in international relations: A view of the literature Reardon, Robert; Choucri, Nazli This paper reviews the literature on cyber international relations of the previous decade. The review covers all journal articles on the role of cyberspace and information technology that appeared in 26 major policy, scholarly IR, and political science journals between the years 2001- 2010. The search yielded 49 articles, mostly from policy journals. The articles are sorted into five distinct issue areas: global civil society, governance, economic development, the effects on authoritarian regimes, and security. The review identifies, and discusses the significance of three unifying themes throughout all of the articles: efforts to define the relevant subject of analysis; cyberspace’s qualitatively transformative effects on international politics, particularly the empowerment of previously marginalized actors; and, at the highest analytic level, efforts to theoretically capture the mutually embedded relationship between technology and politics. These themes can help guide future research on cyber international relations, and focus attention on ways that debates within each of the five distinct issue areas are interconnected, and can be usefully approached using a unified conceptual framework. 2012-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141709 The evolution of network based cybersecurity norms: An analytical narrative Basuchoudhary, Atin; Choucri, Nazli We examine coordination dilemmas in cybersecurity policy by using an already developed evolutionary game theoretical model [2]. We suggest that norms to encourage network based security systems may not evolve independently of international governance systems. In fact, certain kinds of state action may actually further discourage the evolution of such norms. This paper therefore suggests that specific system-wide cybersecurity systems will be more effective than network-specific security. We build on established analytical frameworks to develop a cumulative understanding of the dynamics at hand. This would allow us, in due course, to extend the contributions of evolutionary game theory to cybersecurity problems. 2014-08-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141706 Improving interdisciplinary communication with standardized cyber security terminology: A literature review Ramirez, Robert; Choucri, Nazli The growing demand for computer security, and the cyberization trend, are hallmarks of the 21st century. The rise in cyber-crime, digital currency, and e-governance has been well met by a corresponding recent jump in investment in new technology for securing computers around the globe. Business and government sectors have begun to focus effort on comprehensive cyber security solutions. With this effort has emerged a need for greater collaboration between research and industry fields. Despite much effort, there is still too little cross-disciplinary collaboration in the realm of computer security. This paper reviews the new trends, contributions, and identifiable limitations in cyber security research. We argue that these limitations are due largely to the lack of interdisciplinary cooperation required to address a problem that is clearly multifaceted. We then identify a need for further refinement of standard cyber security terminology to facilitate interdisciplinary cooperation, and propose guidelines for the global Internet multistakeholder community to consider when crafting such standards. We also assess the viability of some specific jargon, including whether cyber should be a separate word when used as a descriptor (e.g. cyber-crime or cybercrime), and conclude with recommendations for terminology use when writing papers on cyber security or the new broader field of all things relating to cyberspace, which has recently been dubbed Cybermatics, a term we also examine and propose alternatives to. By furthering the effort to standardize cyber security terminology, this paper lays groundwork for cross-disciplinary collaboration, interaction between technical and nontechnical stakeholders, and drafting of universal Internet governance laws. 2016-03-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141704 Who controls cyberspace? Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D When Wikileaks released hundreds of thousands of Iraq War logs and diplomatic cables in 2010, a horrified US government sprang into action—but the classified information the government hoped to keep from public view quickly migrated to overseas servers, ensuring that it would likely never be suppressed. After an anti-Islamic movie trailer was posted on YouTube in 2012, the horrified Pakistani government rushed to block its nation’s access to the Internet video service—and, in the process, temporarily disrupted YouTube access around the world. Toward the beginning of the Egyptian revolution, the government of Hosni Mubarak tried to quell the cyber-based aspect of the protest by turning off the Internet, but that effort did little to alter the course of the revolt. China, however, continued to block searches for the terms “Egypt” and “Arab Spring,” with at least some success. Until recently, cyberspace was considered largely a matter of low politics, the term political scientists use to denote background conditions and routine decisions and processes. Over the last decade, though, cyberspace, with the Internet at its core, has clearly begun to shape the domain of high politics—that is, the national security considerations, core institutions, and decision systems that are critical to national governments. Those governments have long held a monopoly on high politics and are, in turn, trying to control the future of cyberspace, with, at best, very limited success. The field of international relations, rooted in 20th-century issues and theories, has not kept pace with the emerging significance of cyberspace; and as the empowered non-state groups and individuals of cyberspace and international politics now simultaneously shape one another, the potential collisions of law, policy, and practice have barely been identified. Before the international community can begin to minimize the negative consequences of those inevitable collisions, it needs to understand how and where cyberspace and international relations intersect and influence one another, and who controls those intersections. 2013-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141689 The convergence of cyberspace and sustainability Choucri, Nazli This paper highlights the emerging synergy between cyberspace (a new arena of interaction) and sustainability (a new initiative on the global agenda), and their convergence on the global policy agenda. This convergence is at the conjunction of two processes, the growing pressures for transitions toward sustainability in the real context of human interactions; and the expanded, cyber-enabled opportunities for the pursuit of goals and objectives. This convergence, unexpected as it was, is a result mainly of the properties of cyberspace as we know it and those of sustainability as we seek to frame it. Reinforced by the role of knowledge in international forums, both cyberspace and sustainability are relative newcomers to international relations theory, policy, and practice. 2012-04-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141686 Co-evolution of cyberspace and international relations: New challenges for the social sciences Choucri, Nazli Created by human ingenuity, cyberspace is a fact of daily life. Until recently, this arena of virtual interaction was considered largely a matter of low politics— the routine, background, and relatively non-contentious. Today cyberspace and its uses have vaulted into the highest realm of high politics – the most salient and contentious forms of interaction. We now appreciate that cyber capabilities are also a source of vulnerability, posing potential threats to national security, and disturbing the familiar and traditional international order. The expansion of cyber access has already influenced the Westphalian-anchored international system in powerful ways. This paper argues that the construction of cyberspace is creating new challenges for the social sciences, the full nature of still remains to be fully understood -- perhaps even calling into question some of its most basic assumptions. We frame these challenges with reference to co- evolution of the new cyber domain and the traditional international system, and then focus more specifically on the emergent synergy between two independent features of the contemporary world order -- cyberspace (an arena of interaction) and sustainability (a policy imperative), and their convergence on the global policy agenda It is no surprise that sustainability is closely connected to security – or alternatively that security is contingent on sustainability. By extension, cyber security is derivative, in that is refers to security in the cyber domain. 2013-10-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141673 Introduction Choucri, Nazli 2016-12-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141672 Cyberpolitics in international relations Choucri, Nazli 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141671 Emerging trends in cyberspace: Dimensions and dilemmas Choucri, Nazli 2016-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141670 Cyberpolitics Choucri, Nazli 2014-05-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141667 Building global digital supply chain hub by cybersecurity commitment: Singapore's strategic role in the digital age Huang, Keman; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli Digital trade is growing in importance: it contributed to 10% of the global GDP in the last decade by enabling cross-border e-commerce. However, accompanied by sustained digital innovations, weak cybersecurity is becoming a growing threat to digital trading. Unfortunately, there are no global rules for managing digital trade, let alone rules to address challenges to cybersecurity issues in the domain of digital trade. An international effort to develop a global standardized cyber code is not a luxury for digital trade. It is a necessity. Concerns surrounding cybersecurity in digital trade are global in scale and scope. The diversified circumstances and inconsistent actions that can lead to different outcomes, sometimes become a source of provocation, and even result in international conflicts. Fragmented efforts to manage various cybersecurity threats can also increase, instead of reduce cyber risks in all digital trade. 2020-10-19T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141666 The New Normal Choucri, Nazli As vast as cyberspace is, so too are the threats, exploits and damages that seem to multiply by the day through this network of computer interconnections around the globe — elements that are shaping a new normal which is not yet fully understood. 2017-06-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141624 Explorations in international relations: Final program report Choucri, Nazli In international relations, the traditional approaches to theory and research, practice, and policy were derived from experiences in the 19th and 20th centuries. But cyberspace, shaped by human ingenuity, is a venue for social interaction, an environment for social communication, and an enabler of new mechanisms for power and leverage. Cyberspace creates new condition — problems and opportunities — for which there are no clear precedents in human history. Already we recognize new patterns of conflict and contention, and concepts such as cyberwar, cybersecurity, and cyberattack are in circulation, buttressed by considerable evidence of cyber espionage and cybercrime. The research problem is this: distinct features of cyberspace — such as time, scope, space, permeation, ubiquity, participation and attribution — challenge traditional modes of inquiry in international relations and limit their utility. The interdisciplinary MIT-Harvard ECIR research project explores various facets of cyber international relations, including its implications for power and politics, conflict and war. Our primary mission and principal goal is to increase the capacity of the nation to address the policy challenges of the cyber domain. Our research is intended to influence today’s policy makers with the best thinking about issues and opportunities, and to train tomorrow’s policy makers to be effective in understanding choice and consequence in cyber matters. Accordingly, the ECIR vision is to create an integrated knowledge domain of international relations in the cyber age, that is (a) multidisciplinary, theory-driven, technically and empirically; (b) clarifies threats and opportunities in cyberspace for national security, welfare, and influence;(c) provides analytical tools for understanding and managing transformation and change; and (d) attracts and educates generations of researchers, scholars, and analysts for international relations in the new cyber age. Version 1.2 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141623 2014 ECIR Workshop on"Cyber Security & the Governance Gap: Complexity, Contention, Cooperation" Choucri, Nazli This workshop focuses on the dynamics shaping these dual features—cyber threats and cyber governance—while also taking into account operational, pragmatic, and normative aspects, as well as potential policy responses. At the core is “nature of the gap” between the two—all from different perspectives: people as users; business and industry; states and governments; and the international community, private and public—everywhere. The question is which trend will dominate: threats to cyber security or the expansion of cyber governance? Does that matter? If so how? If not, why not? Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Cyber Security & the Governance Gap: Complexity, Contention, Cooperation," January 6–7, 2014, MIT, Cambridge, MA. 2014-01-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141622 2012 ECIR Workshop on "Who Controls Cyberspace? A Puzzle for National Security and International Relations" Choucri, Nazli This Workshop proceeds from the assumption that we have as yet no overarching and complete accounting of who controls what, when, and how, nor do we fully understand what are the precise points of control, where they are currently located and where the future ones might be placed. Accordingly, the Workshop is based on first principles, namely, cyber-ecosystems, power in “real” and cyber contexts, and introduce control point analysis. Then it turns to specific control features from four different perspectives: (a) people as users; (b) business and industry; (c) states and governments; and (d) the international community, private and public – across different regions of the world. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Who Controls Cyberspace? A Puzzle for National Security and International Relations," November 6–7, 2012, MIT, Cambridge, MA. 2012-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141621 2011 ECIR Workshop on "People, Power and CyberPolitics" Choucri, Nazli The People, Power, and CyberPolitics Conference is a joint project of MIT and Harvard University on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR). Co-sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, this workshop is the second in a series of sustained deliberations and explorations involving leading individuals in academia, government and business. The outcome of the workshop will be a new understanding of emergent dimensions of cyberpolitics with respect to (i) the evolving pressures on policy and theory, and (ii) the methods and techniques of exploring current conditions and understanding the contours of potential futures. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "People, Power and CyberPolitics," December 7–8, 2011, MIT, Cambridge, MA. 2011-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141620.2 2010 ECIR Workshop on "Cyber International Relations: Emergent Realities of Conflict and Cooperation" Choucri, Nazli An event of the MIT-Harvard multidisciplinary Minerva Project on "Explorations in Cyber International Relations" (ECIR), this conference seeks to adjust traditional views to the cyber realities of the 21st century. Of the many questions shaping world politics today, few are as daunting as Who Controls Cyberspace? Clear as it might appear, this question is deceptively simple, even elusive. It obscures other hidden or implicit aspects, namely, who can control cyberspace, who will control, and who should control cyberspace. However framed, the issue of control is closely tied to matters of scale and scope as well as authority and legitimacy – and most certainly intent and capacity. Our vision is to create new understandings of these realities that help: Highlight alternative perspectives and policies as well as institutional requirements; Clarify threats and opportunities in cyberspace for national security, welfare, and influence; Provide analytical tools for understanding and managing transformation and change; and Attract and educate a new generation of researchers, scholars, and analysts. We hope to develop an integrated approach to international relations and help frame cyber theory and practice for the 21st century. Most important of all, we seek to provide foundations for an integrated view of international relations. Proceedings of the ECIR Workshop on "Cyber International Relations: Emergent Realities of Conflict and Cooperation," October 13–14, 2010, MIT, Cambridge, MA. 2010-10-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141618 The dynamics of managing undersea cables: When solution becomes the problem Sechrist, Michael; Vaishnav, Chintan; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli In the U.S., approximately 95% of all international Internet and phone traffic travels via undersea cables. Nearly all government traffic, including sensitive diplomatic and military orders, travels these cables to reach officials in the field.The problem, however, is that the undersea cable infrastructure is susceptible to several types of vulnerability, including: rising capacity constraints, increased exposure to disruption from both natural and mad-made sources, and emerging security risks from cable concentration in dense geographical networks (such as New York and New Jersey, and places like Egypt/ Suez Canal.) Moreover, even under normal working conditions, there is a concern whether governance-as-usual can keep up with the future growth of Internet traffic. In this work, we explore the impact of these problems on the dynamics of managing undersea cable infrastructure. Poster presented in the workshop on “Who Controls Cyberspace,” MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States, November 6-7, 2012. 2012-11-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141608 Comparative analysis of cybersecurity metrics to develop new hypotheses Fisher, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Li, X.; Ferwerda, J. Few Internet security organizations provide comprehensive, detailed, and reliable quantitative metrics, especially in the international perspective across multiple countries, multiple years, and multiple categories. Organizations ask why they should spend valuable time and resources collecting and standardizing data. This report aims to provide an encouraging answer to this question by demonstrating the value that even limited metrics can provide in a comparative perspective. We present some findings generated through the use of the Explorations in Cyber Internet Relations (ECIR) Data Dashboard. In essence, this dashboard consists of a simple graphing and analysis tool, coupled with a database consisting of data from disparate national-level cyber data sources provided by governments, Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs), and international organizations. Users of the dashboard can select relevant security variables, compare various countries, and scale information as needed. In this paper, we present an example of observations concerning the fight against cybercrime, along with several hypotheses attempting to explain the findings. We believe that these preliminary results suggest valuable ways in which such data could be used and we hope this research will help provide the incentives for organizations to increase the quality and quantity of standardized quantitative data available. Poster presented in the workshop on “People, Power, and CyberPolitics,” MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States, December 7–8, 2011. 2011-12-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141604 Lateral pressure in international relations: Concept and theory Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141603 Megacities and global accord Choucri, Nazli 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141602 System dynamics modeling for Pro-Active intelligence (PAINT) Anderson, Ed; Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Sturtevant, Dan The Pro-Active Intelligence (PAINT) program, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), was formed to address the challenges1 posed by distributed human networks, including terrorists and insurgencies, both independent and state-sponsored. In particular, certain threats (including emerging dual-use technologies) are difficult to detect using traditional intelligence means because: (a) indicators are difficult to discern and may give little warning time, (b) there is usually limited relevant data collection and integration capability, and (c) expertise is generally diverse and disconnected. Over the course of 18 months from September 2007 to February 2009, an effort, led by researchers from MIT, was initiated to develop computational social science models to study and understand the dynamics of complex intelligence targets for nefarious technology activities (broadly defined as activities outside U.S. national interest). System dynamics models were developed because they offered great opportunities to (a) understand and represent determinants of nefarious technology development, (b) to identify aspects of critical pathways, such as resource management, towards the development of nefarious technologies, and (c) support a modeling based strategy for the identification of new sources of intelligence. This report describes the “System Dynamics Modeling for Pro-Active Intelligence” effort and its two thrusts: (a) development of a comprehensive holistic system dynamics model to represent, understand, and differentiate nefarious and benign activities and (b) the development of a detailed system dynamics resource model that can be used as a component of a multi-method federation of models. In both cases, simulations were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of these models in demonstrating system behavior and, on occasion, highlighting potentially counter-intuitive behaviors. 2009-02-02T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141601 Knowledge networking for global sustainability: New modes of cyberpartnering Choucri, Nazli 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141600 Population and the global environment Choucri, Nazli 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141599 International conflict processes: A system view Choucri, Nazli 1970-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141598 International non–alignment: Quantitative perspectives on the Afro–Asian variant Choucri, Nazli 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141597 International political economy: A theoretical perspective Choucri, Nazli 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141596 Population, resources, technology, and environment: Trends and implications Choucri, Nazli 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141595 The reality of theory: reflections and reassessment Choucri, Nazli 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141594 Analytical and behavioral perspectives: Causes of war and strategies for peace Choucri, Nazli 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141593 Roots of war: The master variables Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141592 Dimensions of national security: The case of Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Brown, J. W.; Haas, P. M. 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141591 Population and the international system: Some implications for United States policy and planning Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1971-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141590 Population dynamics and social inquiry: Some methodological imperatives Choucri, Nazli 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141589 Demographic changes in the Middle East: New factors in regional politics Choucri, Nazli 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141588 Migration to the Middle East Choucri, Nazli 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141587 Population and (in)security: National perspectives and global imperatives Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141586 Demography, migration, and security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141535.2 The global environment & multinational corporations Choucri, Nazli Global companies must forge a partnership to manage the environment. The fact of human intervention in ecological processes is not in doubt. Despite uncertainties and continued controversy, human influences on the global environment appear significant. It is no longer plausible to defer including environmental factors in corporate strategies until scientific consensus is reached. But among environmentalists and policy makers, the responses to environmental change have emphasized underlying processes such as energy use and population growth, largely ignoring institutions, agents, and markets. This omission could impede innovation and forestall prospects for managing the world's environment. 1991-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141585 Energy and development: Fossil fuels in developing countries Choucri, Nazli 1984-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141584 International exchanges of alternative energy sources: Technology, price, and management Choucri, Nazli 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141583 Environment, development, and international assistance: Crucial linkages Choucri, Nazli 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141582 Energy consumption and transition dynamics to a sustainable future under a rentier economy Kaya, Abdullah; Choucri, Nazli; Tsai, I-Tsung; Mezher, Toufic 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141581 The political logic of sustainability Choucri, Nazli 1999-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141580 Corporate strategies toward sustainability Choucri, Nazli 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141579 Environmentalism Choucri, Nazli 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141578 Global accord: Imperatives for the twenty-first century Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141577 Multinational corporations and the global environment Choucri, Nazli 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141576 Growth, development, and environmental sustainability: Profile and paradox Choucri, Nazli 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141575 Introduction: Theoretical, empirical, and policy perspectives Choucri, Nazli 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141574 In search of peace systems: Scandinavia and the Netherlands, 1870-1970 Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141573 From correlation analysis to computer forecasting: The evolution of a research programme in international relations Choucri, Nazli 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141572 Alternative futures: An exercise in forecasting Choucri, Nazli; Bousfield, N.; Pollins, B. 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141571 System dynamics forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli; Pollins, B. 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141570 Key issues in international relations forecasting Choucri, Nazli 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141569 Organizational innovation: Global workflow and institutional e-Networking Choucri, Nazli; Haghseta, Farnaz; Mezher, Toufic 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141568 Political implications of population dynamics: A critical assessment. Choucri, Nazli While it is generally recognized that excessive population growth places severe strains upon the environment, there is also some reason to believe that population levels and rates of increase may be important elements affecting national' power, war and peace, and the nature of social and political organization. This paper will attempt to evaluate existing evidence concerning the political implications of population dynamics, note areas of ambiguity and suggest possible avenues for further research. 1974-06-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141567 Demography, migration, and security in the Middle East Choucri, Nazli 1994-11-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141566 LIGHTS: Laboratory for information globalization and harmonization technologies and studies Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Wang, Richard Three important trends – unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity – are creating new opportunities for global politics, with challenging demands for information access, interpretation, provision and overall use. This has serious implications for two diverse domains of scholarship: Information Technology (IT) and International Relations (IR) in political science. Unless IT advances remain ‘one step ahead’ of such realities and complexities, strategies for better understanding and responding to emergent global challenges will be severely impeded. For example, the new Department of Homeland Security will rely on intelligence information from all over the world to develop strategic responses to a wide range of security threats. However, relevant information is stored throughout the world and by diverse agencies and in different media, formats, quality, and contexts. Intelligent integration of that information and improved modes of access and use are critical to developing policies designed to identify and anticipate sources of threat, to strengthen protection against threats on the United States, and to enhance the security of the nation. 2003-02-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141565 Information integration for counter terrorism activities: The requirement for context mediation Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Moulton, Allen; Siegel, Michael D.; Zhu, Hongwei The National Research Council has noted that "[A]lthough there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counterterrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information." In this paper we present examples of these problems and a technology developed at MIT, called context mediation, which provides a novel approach for addressing these problems. 2003-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141564 Laboratory for information globalization and harmonization Siegel, Michael D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Choucri, Nazli; Zhu, Harry; Haghseta, Farnaz; Moulton, Allen The convergence of three distinct but interconnected trends – unrelenting globalization, growing worldwide electronic connectivity, and increasing knowledge intensity of economic activity – is creating powerful new opportunities and challenges for global politics. This rapidly changing environment has information demands that surpass existing capabilities for information access, interpretation, and overall use, thus hindering our abilities to address emergent and complex global challenges, such as terrorism and other security threats. This reality has serious implications for two diverse domains of scholarship: international relations (IR) in political science and information technology (IT). Unless IT advances remain ‘one step ahead’ of emergent realities and complexities, strategies for better understanding and responding to critical global challenges will be severely impeded. For example, more so now than ever, the U.S. Office of Counter-Terrorism and the newly-created Office of Homeland Security rely on intelligence information from all over the world to develop strategic responses to security threats. However, relevant information is stored in various regions throughout the world and by diverse agencies in different media, formats, and contexts. Intelligent integration of information is fundamental to developing policies to anticipate and strengthen protection against terrorist threats or attacks in the United States. This Project’s activities, and relationships with its collaborators, will be coordinated through a newly formed joint Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT). LIGHT will address information needs in the IR domain, focusing on the conflict realm, which deals with emergent risks, threats, and uncertainties of potentially global scale and scope related to: (a) crises, (b) conflicts and war; and (c) anticipation, monitoring and early warning. The goals of this initiative are to: (1) improve understanding of the types of IR information needs for decision making and institutional performance under varying degrees of risk and uncertainty; (2) design and implement the System for Harmonized Information Processing, to facilitate access to and correct interpretation of essential information that is critical to policy and research in the IR realm, as well as to other similarly complex domains, and (3) advance developments in the use of information technologies to facilitate such interdisciplinary research and to contribute to new education approaches, tools, and methods. Increasingly, addressing problems central to national and global interests in complex domains such as IR requires the use of technologies that easily combine observations from disparate sources, using different interpretations, for different purposes, and by a wide range of users. Critical advances in IT capabilities must span multiple domains (e.g., economic, political, geographic, commercial, and demographic), diverse contexts (i.e., meanings, languages, assumptions), and a multiplicity of contending agents (i.e., states, governments, corporations, international institutions). The technology-related research will focus on acquiring and enhancing information to serve user requirements both over individual domains (i.e., a single shared ontology) and across multiple domains, which are necessary for addressing complex challenges. The core innovation is reflected in the notion of a Collaborative Domain Space (CDS), within which applications in a common domain can share, analyze, modify, and develop information. For applications that span multiple domains we provide for a Collection of CDSs to link shared concepts in distinct domains. Moreover, we will develop the System for Harmonized Information Processing that incorporates CDSs as a basis for knowledge representation and includes all the necessary reasoning algorithms required to support information processing over a range of heterogeneous sources and applications. The development of the system described above builds upon prior work. The political science IR work will draw on an earlier Internet-based experimental ‘platform’ for exploring forms of information generation, provision, and integration across multiple domains, regions, languages, and epistemologies which are relevant to complex but domain-specific applications, the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD). The IT component builds on work on the Context Interchange project (COIN) focused on the integration of a range of distributed heterogeneous information sources (e.g., financial, supply chain, disaster relief) using ontologies, databases, context mediation algorithms, and wrapper technologies. Both groups have considerable experience with the organization and management of large scale, international, distributed, and diverse research projects, including cross-national (e.g., China, Middle East, Europe) and institutional (private, public, national and international) agencies. The anticipated results will apply to any complex domain with multiple entities that rely on heterogeneous distributed data to address and resolve compelling problems. This initiative is supported by a network of international collaborators from (a) scientific and research institutions, (b) business and industry, and (c) national and international agencies. Expected research products include: a software platform, IR-based knowledge repository, and diverse applications in policy, research, and education which are anticipated to significantly impact the way complex organizations, and society in general, understand and manage critical global challenges. 2001-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141563 Using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Mistree, Dinsha; Morrison, J. Bradley; Siegel, Michael D. The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability. 2007-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141562 The energy policy project: Petroleum and natural gas in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Shafei, M. Zaki This study is undertaken as part of the Energy and Development Research Program at M.I.T. under the direction of Professor Choucri. It is designed to Contribute to understanding energy-economy interactions in devel­opment and the constraints and opportunities created by the existing geologi­cal and technological configurations of energy systems. Handwritten text: PNAAN766 ISN 32177 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141561 Resource scarcity and foreign policy: A simulation model of international conflict Choucri, Nazli; Laird, Michael; Meadows, Dennis L. This paper describes the initial stages of an interdisciplinary research project designed to trace the effects of domestic resource needs and scarcities in advanced technological societies upon international behavior. Our objective is the development of conceptual tools for disciplined speculation concerning alternative future responses that may be employed by nations faced with resource problems. What follows is a statement of the problem, a description of the research design and methodology used, and a discussion of our preliminary analysis, with the United States as a test case. The investigations reported in this paper were undertaken with the collaboration of Robert C. North, Stanford University. The energy data were compiled a t Stanford University and processed at M.I.T. by Panayiotis Momferratos. The model formulation was undertaken by Michael Laird, and the basic research for resource data by James P. Bennett. An earlier version of this paper was entitled "International Implications of Technological Development and Population Growth," M.I.T., September 1971. We are grateful to Hayward R. Alker for incisive comments and criticisms. 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141560 Population and conflict: New dimensions of population dynamics Choucri, Nazli The pervasiveness of population issues can be seen today in almost all aspects of human society. While our understanding of these issues has greatly increased over the last decade and a half, the implications o! population dynamics for conflict behaviour have not been well explained. Population, conflict and their interaction may be important factors in determining the kind of world we will face for the remaining decades of this century and those of the next. While the absence of population related pressures does not guarantee peace, these pressures could increase the probability of conflict. This is particularly true when such additional aggravating factors as widening economic disparities, worsening environmental conditions and dwindling natural resources are also present in countries. This report by Professor Nazli Choucri brings into focus the role of population dynamics in conflict manifestations. It also underscores the need to resolve population issues within a development framework if prosperity and peace for mankind are to be ensured. The UNFPA is pleased to see this report appear in time for the International Conference on Population in 1984 and hopes that this report in the Policy Development Studies series will advance the understanding of a complex and important issue. 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141559 Migration and employment in the construction sector: Critical factors in Egyptian development Choucri, Nazli; Eckaus, Richard S.; Mohie-Eldine, Amr The migration of construction workers is having a strong effect on the construction sector and on the economy as a whole. There are costs and benefits to this migration. And there are policy implications that must be clearly understood so that the benefits can be made to outweigh the costs. 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141558 Migration processes among developing countries: The Middle East Choucri, Nazli This paper is part of a research project undertaken within the context of the Technology Adaptation Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is allowed to appear in the Migration and Development Study Group series as a courtesy of the Technology Adaptation Program. 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141557 Energy independence Choucri, Nazli; Ferraro, Vincent This study is one of a number done by academic and other research institutions for the Department of State as part of its external research program. The program is planned and coordinated by the Department of State Research Council and managed by the Office of External Research in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. It is designed to supplement the Department's own research capabilities and to provide independent, expert views to policy officers and analysts on questions with important policy implications. 1974-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141556 Methodological perspectives and research implications Alker, Hayward R. Jr.; Choucri, Nazli This study is one of a number done by academic and other research institutions for the Department of State as part of its external research program. The program is planned and coordinated by the Department of State Research Council and managed by the Office of External Research in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. It is designed to supplement the Department's own research capabilities and to provide independent, expert views to policy officers and analysts on questions with important policy implications. 1974-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141555 The new migration in the Middle East: a problem for whom? Choucri, Nazli Popular views of the Middle East tend to concentrate on the cultural homogeneity of the Arab states, their conflict with Israel, and the dispute over petroleum prices. Yet in recent years a new issue has emerged that may well dominate regional politics in the years to come, giving rise to problems with both economic and political ramifications. That issue is the increased migration of Egyptian workers—skilled and unskilled—to other Arab states and their importance to development program and plans for social change. The volume of this migration and its consequences for regional politics are only dimly foreseen. Indeed, the very magnitude of that movement is itself in question, given the paucity of recorded data, conflicting reports, and political incentives for inaccurate representation. But there is every indication that it transcends narrow demographic concerns and will exert a powerful influence on relations among the Arab countries. 1977-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141554 Population dynamics and local conflict: A cross national study of population and war Choucri, Nazli There are many uncertainties concerning the implications of population dynamics for conflict and violence among nations. The record is unclear. And despite some preliminary evidence regarding the role of demographic factors in contributing to violent conflict, considerable ambiguities remain. The purpose of this paper is to (1) summarize a cross-national study of the relationship between population dynamics and violent conflict in developing areas, (2) present a profile of basic patterns and associations, and (3) provide some insights into the apparent linkages between demographic factors, on the one hand, and conflict behavior, on the other. This skeletal review is abstracted from a detailed comparative analysis of the role of demographic factors in 45 "third world" conflicts since World War II. Logistical constraints prevent a discussion of each case, and as comprehensive a review of methods, procedure. results and policy implications as would be desirable. Only the broadest patterns are delineated. 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141553 Improving National and Homeland Security through a proposed Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT) Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael; Wang, Richard A recent National Research Council study found that: "Although there are many private and public databases that contain information potentially relevant to counter terrorism programs, they lack the necessary context definitions (i.e., metadata) and access tools to enable interoperation with other databases and the extraction of meaningful and timely information" [NRC02, p.304, emphasis added] That sentence succinctly describes the objectives of this project. Improved access and use of information are essential to better identify and anticipate threats, protect against and respond to threats, and enhance national and homeland security (NHS), as well as other national priority areas, such as Economic Prosperity and a Vibrant Civil Society (ECS) and Advances in Science and Engineering (ASE). This project focuses on the creation and contributions of a Laboratory for Information Globalization and Harmonization Technologies (LIGHT) with two interrelated goals: (1) Theory and Technologies: To research, design, develop, test, and implement theory and technologies for improving the reliability, quality, and responsiveness of automated mechanisms for reasoning and resolving semantic differences that hinder the rapid and effective integration (int) of systems and data (dmc) across multiple autonomous sources, and the use of that information by public and private agencies involved in national and homeland security and the other national priority areas involving complex and interdependent social systems (soc). This work builds on our research on the COntext INterchange (COIN) project, which focused on the integration of diverse distributed heterogeneous information sources using ontologies, databases, context mediation algorithms, and wrapper technologies to overcome information representational conflicts. The COIN approach makes it substantially easier and more transparent for individual receivers (e.g., applications, users) to access and exploit distributed sources. Receivers specify their desired context to reduce ambiguities in the interpretation of information coming from heterogeneous sources. This approach significantly reduces the overhead involved in the integration of multiple sources, improves data quality, increases the speed of integration, and simplifies maintenance in an environment of changing source and receiver context - which will lead to an effective and novel distributed information grid infrastructure. This research also builds on our Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), an Internet platform for information generation, provision, and integration of multiple domains, regions, languages, and epistemologies relevant to international relations and national security. (2) National Priority Studies: To experiment with and test the developed theory and technologies on practical problems of data integration in national priority areas. Particular focus will be on national and homeland security, including data sources about conflict and war, modes of instability and threat, international and regional demographic, economic, and military statistics, money flows, and contextualizing terrorism defense and response. Although LIGHT will leverage the results of our successful prior research projects, this will be the first research effort to simultaneously and effectively address ontological and temporal information conflicts as well as dramatically enhance information quality. Addressing problems of national priorities in such rapidly changing complex environments requires extraction of observations from disparate sources, using different interpretations, at different points in times, for different purposes, with different biases, and for a wide range of different uses and users. This research will focus on integrating information both over individual domains and across multiple domains. Another innovation is the concept and implementation of Collaborative Domain Spaces (CDS), within which applications in a common domain can share, analyze, modify, and develop information. Applications also can span multiple domains via Linked CDSs. The PIs have considerable experience with these research areas and the organization and management of such large scale international and diverse research projects. The PIs come from three different Schools at MIT: Management, Engineering, and Humanities, Arts & Social Sciences. The faculty and graduate students come from about a dozen nationalities and diverse ethnic, racial, and religious backgrounds. The currently identified external collaborators come from over 20 different organizations and many different countries, industrial as well as developing. Specific efforts are proposed to engage even more women, underrepresented minorities, and persons with disabilities. The anticipated results apply to any complex domain that relies on heterogeneous distributed data to address and resolve compelling problems. This initiative is supported by international collaborators from (a) scientific and research institutions, (b) business and industry, and (c) national and international agencies. Research products include: a System for Harmonized Information Processing (SHIP), a software platform, and diverse applications in research and education which are anticipated to significantly impact the way complex organizations, and society in general, understand and manage critical challenges in NHS, ECS, and ASE. 2004-12-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141551 Forecasting in international relations: Theory, methods, problems, prospects Choucri, Nazli; Robinson, T. W. 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141550 Global accord: Environmental challenges and international responses Choucri, Nazli Global Accord is the first holistic assault on a complex set of environmental issues. It provides a much-needed analytical framework for examining how individuals, groups, and nations create environmental dislocations, and how nations can work together to solve ecological problems that cross their borders. The fifteen essays cover theoretical and empirical dimensions, actors and processes, law and economics, and international institutions and systems. Effective management of global environmental problems may become the most significant institutional challenge for the twenty-first century. The purpose of this book - the first in a series of scholarly investigations of global environmental accord - is to develop an integrated approach to interactions between environmental and social systems, and between ecological and decision systems, in order to untangle the connections between human actions and environmental consequences and to improve prospects for concerted global responses to environmental problems. Each chapter highlights the importance of recognizing differences in perspectives and priorities among nations and of articulating norms for management of the global environment. Contributors: Hayward R. Alker, Jr., Garry D. Brewer, Abram Chayes, Nazli Choucri, Michael E. Colby, Peter M. Haas, Thomas F. HomerDixon, Robert C. North, Jerome Rothenberg, Francisco R. Sagasti, Eugene B. Skolnikoff, Maurice Strong, Jan Sungren, Edith Brown Weiss, Oran R. Young, David G. Victor; “A comprehensive look at the incredibly complex set of issues that are encompassed by the concepts of global environment and sustainable development. These issues are examined in systematic, thoroughly documented fashion.... There are throughout this volume rich veins of data and bases for addressing what are arguably the most compelling problems facing the community of nations at the end of the twentieth century.” Philip Shabecoff, Nature 1995-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141549 Cyberpolitics in international relations Choucri, Nazli Cyberspace is widely acknowledged as a fundamental fact of daily life in today's world. Until recently, its political impact was thought to be a matter of low politics—background conditions and routine processes and decisions. Now, however, experts have begun to recognize its effect on high politics—national security, core institutions, and critical decision processes. In this book, Nazli Choucri investigates the implications of this new cyberpolitical reality for international relations theory, policy, and practice. The ubiquity, fluidity, and anonymity of cyberspace have already challenged such concepts as leverage and influence, national security and diplomacy, and borders and boundaries in the traditionally state-centric arena of international relations. Choucri grapples with fundamental questions of how we can take explicit account of cyberspace in the analysis of world politics and how we can integrate the traditional international system with its cyber venues. After establishing the theoretical and empirical terrain, Choucri examines modes of cyber conflict and cyber cooperation in international relations; the potential for the gradual convergence of cyberspace and sustainability, in both substantive and policy terms; and the emergent synergy of cyberspace and international efforts toward sustainable development. Choucri's discussion is theoretically driven and empirically grounded, drawing on recent data and analyzing the dynamics of cyberpolitics at individual, state, international, and global levels. An examination of the ways the construction of the Internet, with cyberspace as the core, are changing the theory, policy, and practice of international relations. 2012-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141548 International relations in the cyber age: The co-evolution dilemma Choucri, Nazli; Clark, David D In our increasingly digital world, data flows define the international landscape as much as the flow of materials and people. How is cyberspace shaping international relations, and how are international relations shaping cyberspace? In this book, Nazli Choucri and David D. Clark offer a foundational analysis of the co-evolution of cyberspace (with the internet as its core) and international relations, examining resultant challenges for individuals, organizations, and states. The authors examine the pervasiveness of power and politics in the digital realm, finding that the internet is evolving much faster than the tools for regulating it. This creates a “co-evolution dilemma”—a new reality in which digital interactions have enabled weaker actors to influence or threaten stronger actors, including the traditional state powers. Choucri and Clark develop a new method for addressing control in the internet age, “control point analysis,” and apply it to a variety of situations, including major actors in the international and digital realms: the United States, China, and Google. In doing so they lay the groundwork for a new international relations theory that reflects the reality in which we live—one in which the international and digital realms are inextricably linked and evolving together. A foundational analysis of the co-evolution of the internet and international relations, examining resultant challenges for individuals, organizations, firms, and states. 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141547 The new migration in the Middle East: A problem for whom? Choucri, Nazli This paper describes the recent trends in migration throughout the Middle East, identifying the major implications of this movement, and isolating the critical policy issues for both Egypt and other Arab states. The author argues that international migration in the Middle East harbors political and economic effects that may be potentially explosive. It is demonstrated that current migration related policies may be counter-productive for all parties concerned. This paper highlights the emergence of new issues in Middle East politics without attempting a detailed analysis of their many facets. 1977-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141546 A report on Bucharest. The World Population Conference and the Population Tribune, August 1974 The United Nations World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania, in August 1974, was the first international conference of governments to discuss population and development. It represented a breakthrough in a field that had, to that time, largely focused on technical aspects of population regulation-family planning programs, distribution and dissemination of contraceptive devices and methods, and research in demographic processes -and in which the major conferences had largely involved professionals in the field. The foresight and dedication of the United Nations system made possible a broadening of this approach to population issues. 1974-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141545 Book Review: Manpower and employment in Arab countries: Some critical issues Choucri, Nazli Book Review. 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141544 The pervasiveness of politics: Political definitions of population issues Choucri, Nazli Population programmes have political dimensions-and political problems often have demographic roots. But just how do politics and population interact? 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141543 Labor transfers in the Arab world: Growing interdependence in the construction sector Choucri, Nazli Text in Arabic language. 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141542 The Arab world in the 1980s: Macro-politics and economic change Choucri, Nazli The events of the early 1970's -- preceded by gradual changes which culminated in the war of 1973 and the oil price increases of October that year -- created realities that cannot be comprehended through conventional categories used in the past. Outsiders generally view the Arab world in terms of population, agriculture, industry and the like. In the West, the prevailing view was that the Arab world was poor, despite new wealth in oil-rich countries, and that its economic problems were basically those of increasing rates of growth, per capita income, and managing propensities for urban living. By the same token, the countries of the region were defined as "democracies," "monarchies" or "dictatorships" as the case might be. Arab countries were regarded as "good" or "bad" depending on the cold war politics of the time. Arab states, whatever their form of government, were then defined as "pro-West", "pro-East" or non-aligned, the implication being that political choices were limited to these three possibilities.[2] Lending can often be quite complex, given scarcity of personnel and difficulties in evaluating projects. The Abu Dhabi Fund (ADFAED), Saudi Development Fund (SDF), Iraq Fund for External Development (IFED), and Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFEAD) are all bilateral, administered by one country, and generally disbursed to individual recipients or occasionally an organization. Multilateral funds include Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFSED), Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (ABEDA), and the OPEC Special Fund. Other lending facilities include the Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development, the Arab Monetary Fund and the Arab Africa Oil Assistance Fund. 1982-04-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141541 Migration in the Middle East: Transformation and change Choucri, Nazli; Brecke, P. The large-scale international movement of manpower is one of the most dramatic effects of the oil price increase and related events of 1973. The issues raised by migration in the Middle East have not received the attention they deserve from political analysts, economists, or area specialists. Yet the economic development of the Arab region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national borders. So, too, labor migration is changing the political demography of the region, shaping the parameters for political and social conflict in the years to come. This paper places contemporary migration in the Middle East in its historical context and then reviews the transformations in migration over the past ten years. It seeks to trace the evolution of migration processes. The basic, guiding proposition is that the "reality" has changed. The challenge lies in delineating these transformations and identifying the various flows and sequences in the evolution of the migration process. 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141540 The hidden economy: A new view of remittances in the Arab world Choucri, Nazli The hidden economy is set in place by the large-scale migration of labor in search of employment outside national boundaries. Remitted earnings, channeled largely through informal mechanisms, have generated a network of financial and economic relations that define the boundaries and characteristic features of the hidden economy. The hidden economy shapes many of the critical parameters of economic activity of the Middle East, such as exchange rates and the availability of foreign exchange. It is difficult to observe (or measure) working of this important phenomenon, since, to a large extent, it operates through unofficial, informal, or illegal transactions. Special emphasis is given to the cases of Sudan and Egypt to illustrate the operations of the hidden economy and to identify its agents and characteristic features. 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141539 Asians in the Arab world: Labor migration and public policy Choucri, Nazli Ten years after the first oil price rises were declared in 1973 the countries of the Middle East were still struggling to understand the implications of these momentous events. Economic changes induced by events of 1973 created a dynamic process that fundamentally changed both the view of, and the reality in, the Arab world. The economic development of the region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national boundaries. The appearance of increasing numbers of South and East Asian workers in the Arab Gulf represents the most important recent change in the labor markets of the region. The new flows of Asian labor, beginning around 1975, were partly a response to market conditions and partly fueled by political concerns. Arab labor exporters could not fully meet the demand for labor. In addition, Asians had a distinct political advantage: Asian workers were unlikely to make claims for citizenship. Asians were alien and could continue to remain disenfranchised. They were regarded as more likely to be passive observers of political processes rather than as potential activists or claimants on social services and other benefits of citizenship. Now, at the time of writing, in 1983, there emerge signs of yet another change. The Middle East press reports new labor agreements among Arab countries as well as criticism of the large number of Asians. These signs must be interpreted with caution. If such a reaction is occurring it may be politically motivated. For example, while Arab labor contractors might now become almost as effective as their Asian counterparts, they are unlikely to have surpassed them. To fully appreciate the implications of the Asian presence, it must. be placed in the context of migration processes in the Middle East. This article presents the view from the Middle East by reviewing the migration processes of the past decade and highlighting the initial issues of political economy emerging from the large-scale movement of labor across national boundaries. The major policy issues are then identified, as an essential requisite for making cautious assessments regarding future prospects. 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141538 Migration in the Middle East: Old economics or new politics? Choucri, Nazli What we have in the Middle East today is a very distinctive and peculiar phenomenon that can be understood only in the context of the realities of the past decade: almost everyone is on the move. Nowhere do we see a truly national labor market. While declining oil prices will almost certainly reduce the growth of the labor mobility, even perhaps eliminating it entirely, the fact remains that almost every country relies on sending labor, or on receiving labor, or on both. This fact will remain with us well into the foreseeable future. For example, over 80 percent of Kuwait's labor force is composed of nonnationals; 50 percent of the country's population are noncitizens. While this is indeed a stark profile, it is certainly unreasonable to expect that all foreigners will be "returned." There is almost no scenario one can conjure to reestablish truly national labor markets that would, in turn, eliminate this internationalization of employment practices. This is precisely what makes the issue of labor migration an intensely political, rather than simply an economic, issue in the Middle East today. The foreign policies of nations, Arab and non-Arab, are increasingly shaped by manpower connections, and issues that were conventionally thought to be in the realm of "low politics"--to be dealt with by technocrats, bureaucrats, economists, and the like--have been catapulted into the arena of "high politics," pressing themselves upon the attention and shaping the priorities of almost every leader in the region. Remittances from employment abroad are a major feature of the manpower mosaic in the Middle East. By official estimates, Egyptians remit about $3 billion per year. (But there are indications that this figure may be falling because migration is tapering off.) This is an official figure, accounted for in the country's balance of payments. Once these earnings are remitted, it is conventionally believed that a whole variety of economic effects takes place. This added income in the hands of consumers, translated into more purchasing power, leads to increased aggregate demand and eventually increased output. Most observers believe, however, that remittances are essentially "squanderables," going into consumer goods, luxury items, TV's, and so forth. No one knows for sure what happens to the remitted earnings, but analysts have tended to focus on their impact for the real side of the economy, that is, the goods market rather than the monetary side, money supply, and foreign exchange markets. Generally, almost everyone attributes the growing inflation in the labor-exporting countries to the flow of remittances. On balance, then, there are "goods" and "bads" associated with remittances; how much of each remains quite unclear. The revolutionary uprising of Palestinians within the occupied territories, and within Israel, is tying labor issues to security concerns, connecting both with strong contentions against authority of the occupying power. The simplicity of conventional definitions is being challenged: are Palestinians working in Israel "migrant labor," "citizens," "refugees," or some other category? In a region where people are intensely politicized, issues of mobility, migration, employment, and labor are increasingly ones of "high politics." 1988-04-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141537 Migration and security: Some key linkages Choucri, Nazli As migration is defined as the movement of people across national boundaries--an inter-state phenomenon--we would expect it to be addressed by students of international relations.... It is ... glaring to note the absence of migration as a topic in graduate courses in the field and its practical non-existence in the textbooks. 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141536 Globalization, migration, and new challenges to governance Choucri, Nazli; Mistree, Dinsha The movement of people across national borders—along with the cross-border flow of ideas, goods, services, and pollutants—has reached unprecedented levels in recent decades. As a result, sovereign states find themselves under increasing pressure to manage these flows and respond to the challenges that the flows create, while balancing the interests of various constituencies, both national and international. 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141534 Interactions of economic and political change: The Egyptian case Choucri, Nazli; Eckaus, Richard S. Partial indicators of economic change in Egypt suggest that the real rate of growth and the rate of inflation have been higher than official statistics. Investment and consumption have both grown rapidly. The private sector has responded strongly to new opportunities. Large-scale migration of Egyptian workers of all types to the Arab oil countries has reduced the unemployment rate substantially and created shortages of some types of labour. Economic changes have interacted with political changes which are characterized by a higher degree of participation and a slow and inconsistent movement toward liberalization. Economic interests and autonomous political groups generate pressures that are far more comprehensive than yet recognized. 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141533 The politicization of technology choices Choucri, Nazli An analysis of the factors involved in international technological advance and of the various strains and tensions created by the intervention of national political considerations. 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141532  A partnership with nature: Construction consortium for the global environment Choucri, Nazli There is no doubt that human beings are intervening in natural environments in potentially significant ways. There are controversies about the scale and scope of these interventions. That fact is not questioned by anyone, anywhere. Because construction by definition means building human environments and altering the areas being built, the construction industry is extremely vulnerable to an emerging ethos of environmental responsibility. The crucial fact is that with the inevitable vulnerabilities come now opportunities. To the extent that the construction industry can appreciate—and even create—these opportunities, this vulnerability could be turned to major advantages, possibly greater than had even been the case in the history of this industry. 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141531 Globalization of eco–efficiency: GSSD on the world wide web (www) Choucri, Nazli This article presents a pragmatic strategy for accelerating the diffusion of advances in eco-efficiency, and for enhancing two-way communication between industry and its diverse constituencies. Attention is also given to means now available for developing countries to "leapfrog" in eco-efficiency and, at the same time, increase understanding in industrialized countries of market conditions in the developing world. 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141530 Renewable energy in Abu Dhabi: Opportunities and challenges Mezher, Toufic; Goldsmith, Daniel; Choucri, Nazli The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an oil-rich country located in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula. Abu Dhabi is the largest emirate in the country, and Abu Dhabi is the capital of the UAE. The country has the one of the highest per capita rates of CO2 CO 2 emission and water consumption in the world. Most of the water consumed is produced in desalination plants, which are energy intensive. The leadership of the country has made the bold decision to establish a renewable energy (RE) sector to diversify its energy sources and the economy as a whole. The Masdar Initiative was established to promote this objective. The government has established its first RE policy; the goal is to have 7% of power come from RE sources and technologies by 2020. This paper highlights the different RE projects of the Masdar Initiative, with particular emphasis on the power sector, and examines the new concentrated solar power (CSP) plants developed as part of the initiative. 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141529 Population, resources, and technology: Political implications of the environmental crisis Choucri, Nazli; Bennett, James P. Virtually everyone recognizes the existence on an environmental crisis in the world today, but many uncertainties remain concerning the precise nature of this crisis and its domestic and international implications. This much is clear: The world's population is continuing to grow at an alarming pace; finite resources are being utilized at exponential rates; and technological advances are contributing to negative ecological outcomes. These trends have been documented extensively. Their political significance, however, has received little attention if only because the visibility of the problem is such a recent phenomenon. This article is addressed to some of the political consequences and international implications of the environmental crisis. 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141528 Analytical specifications of the world oil market: A review and comparison of twelve models.  Choucri, Nazli One discernible reaction to the oil price increases of October 1973 is a variety of arguments and position papers about different features of the "crisis," yielding both diagnoses of the "problem" and prescriptions for its "solution." Much of this literature is dominated by a view that the problem is created by the oil exporting countries, and the solution is some form of induced price reduction. At the same time, however, there is a new line of research that seeks to apply techniques of mathematical modeling and simulation to analyses of the "problem." The importance of this new work on the world oil market lies in its intended contribution to our understanding of that market, by seeking to yield insights into precise relationships and provide specific predictions or forecasts. The purpose of this review is to compare the structure of twelve models of the world oil market, identify the analytical formulations employed, and render explicit the world view adopted by each and its implications for modeling international trade in petroleum. This comparison is designed to highlight both the dominant assumptions and the characteristic features of price de- termination in models of the world petroleum market. We shall conclude that models reviewed all share the same general paradigm, that the implicit world view employed poses inherent difficulties, that important features of "reality" in international oil trade are omitted, and that some of these difficulties can be overcome by an explicit recognition of the broader international exchanges within which this particular market is imbedded. 1979-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141527 Power and politics in world oil Choucri, Nazli Though there has recently been more oil in the marketplace than anyone knows what to do with, a feeling of apprehension persists. We know that oil is a fi. nite resource upon which the world is profoundly dependent. We remember how a handful of producers shook the market for this critical commodity almost ten years ago, causing a fourfold price increase in a few weeks. We sense that these producers have since 1973 consolidated the position that gave them unprecedented control of the market. Indeed, the 13 producing countries that are now members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today provide one-third of the world's oil; half of all exported oil comes from the Middle East. It is easy to believe that industrial countries are increasingly at the mercy of these oil- exporting countries, whose political and religious traditions are so vital and different from those of the West. 1982-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141526 OPEC: Calming a nervous world oil market Choucri, Nazli In October 1973, the oil-exporting countries announced an increase in oil prices from $3.11 to 5.12 per barrel. The consuming nations regarded the price increases with horror—as an audacious and unwarranted economic humiliation. Since then, the oil-exporting countries have increased the market price of crude ten times, reaching $28 per barrel, and almost everyone agrees that there remains a wide margin for further price increases to producers, consumers, and international oil companies. In retrospect, the 1973 price increases seem moderate, but they were the first obvious manifestation of irrevocable changes in the oil market and, most important, in the world's international power structure. 1980-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141525 Energy and development: Understanding the risks Lampe, D. R. It is no secret that highly industrialized nations such as Great Britain, the United States, and Japan depend heavily on the oil rich nations of the Middle East - and increasingly Latin America - for the petroleum products to fuel their economies. On the other hand, this demand has produced sudden enormous wealth in these regions, a situation which inevitably brings political and social, as well as economic, strains. Understanding the interplay of the volatile energy market with the politics, economics, and growth in these areas are thus of vital importance both for the developing areas and the countries with which they do business. To help monitor, understand, and forecast the changes and risks associated with these critical areas, a group of MIT researchers drawn from several disciplines have combined their expertise in a series of projects under the auspices of the Energy and Development Research Program. And members of the group have developed new and unique methods for producing comprehensive analyses of the economic and political issues in these areas. 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141524 Energy policy in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Shafei, M. Z. Energy issues are becoming increasingly central to the Egyptian economy, and the country's energy sector is regarded by many analysts and policy makers as holding one critical key to Egypt's future. However, sound management is required so that the country's scarce resources are optimally utilized. These concerns provided the basis for a: collaborative research project on Egyptian energy issues undertaken jointly between Cairo University and M.IT. 1984-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141523 Demographics and conflict Choucri, Nazli Conflict and population are strongly interrelated, and the linkages go both ways. Under certain conditions population variables lead to conflict, and under other conditions the existence of conflict can have profound impacts on demographic characteristics. Yet these links are seldom simple or direct, and they are modified by intervening processes. 1986-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141522 The perceptual base of nonalignment Choucri, Nazli Almost two-thirds of the nations in the world have chosen not to join either of the two dominant alliance systems—the Communist of the Western. Most of these states, generally known as the "third world." are Afro-Asian and their nonalignment signifies freedom from constraints imposed by alliances with major powers (Rossi, 1963). While it is misleading to consider the nonaligned states as a group homogenous in attitude and behavior the degree of variation among them is largely an empirical question. This articled examines the attitudinal orientation of three Afro-Asian nations—India, Egypt, and Indonesia—during the later 1950s and early 1960s, an important period in the development of nonalignment. Our primary objective is to identify the more general perceptions at the base of this policy. The model of the international system implicit in our analysis is admittedly oversimplified,, for the world is more complex than simply major powers and nonaligned states. However, for the purpose of systematic analysis, a parsimonious model is more useful than an intricate, though undoubtedly more realistic, portrayal of the international system. 1969-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141521 The nonalignment of Afro–Asian States: Policy, perception, and behavior. Choucri, Nazli The purpose of this paper* is to examine the orientation of three Afro-Asian states in world politics during the mid 1950s and early 1960s-an important period in the development of their current international posture-with primary emphasis on the relationship between official policy, attitudes of the national leaderships, and actual behaviour. Nations do not always behave in accordance with stated policies, nor are their actions necessarily congruent with dominant attitudes. The degree of consistency between these three aspects of national orientation is the question to which this enquiry is addressed. The states exa- mined-India, Egypt, and Indonesia-were selected not because they represent Afro-Asia as a whole, but because they expressed in the most forceful terms the position of the "third world" during this period. 1969-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141520 Dynamics of international conflict: Some policy implications of population, resources, and technology Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C. International conflict has been accounted for in many different ways—in terms of aggressive “instincts,” territoriality, population growth, the search for basic resources or seaports, the protection of trade routes, psychopathological deviations, plunder and profit, a drive for imperialist control, and so forth. Some theorists have considered grievances, competition, anxieties, tension, threat, and provocation to be of special importance. Others have laid heavy emphasis upon national power or capability, military preparedness, strategic considerations, and the competition for dominance.1 No doubt most if not all of these variables are relevant, but this recognition does not help much in the development of a theory of war, its dynamics, and contributing causal networks. In the long run all factors need to be pulled together in some systematic way. A serious difficulty emerges from the fact that the various “causes” that contribute to war tend to be highly interactive, that is, they affect each other in various ways and often in many different directions. The problem is to find out, if possible, which variables are contributing most to international violence and in what proportion. The purpose of this paper is to take an early step in this direction by reporting on some empirical research currently under way and by presenting some tentative findings which suggest partial explanations and some implications and difficulties for national policies. 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141519 Resource constraints as causes of conflict Choucri, Nazli There is a crucial connection between resource constraints and Conflict among nations. As yet, however, the international community has paid little attention to that link. It is thereby missing the opportunity to develop preventive measures as well as effective responses should a conflict occur. Such acute myopia ill serves global needs, nor does it help efforts to design a better world for the 21st century. 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141518 Economic and political factors in international conflict and integration North, Robert C.; Choucri, Nazli In earlier efforts to explain international conflict and integration, the central focus was upon national attributes and decisionmaking as crucial to understanding the actions of states in war- and peacemaking. Recently, however, we have begun to critically reconsider these assumptions. In the face of their inability to fully account for the actions of states in international conflict and cooperation, we have sought out a more basic, disaggregated approach to these questions. We believe that the concept of leverage may serve as an important explanatory factor in theories of interstate relations. Here we offer some preliminary arguments concerning leverage and bargaining among domestic and international actors, fleshing out some of the possible relationships between economic and political behaviors and their effects on the war- and peacemaking activities of states in the international system. 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141517 Profiles of states as fuzzy sets: Methodological refinement of lateral pressure theory Choucri, Nazli; Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin One of the most serious challenges in international relations pertains to the theory and measurement of transformation and change. This paper proposes, and then develops a conceptual and methodological extension in the measurement of change within and across states as postulated by lateral pressure theory. It argues, and shows, that by conceptualizing the profiles of states identified by lateral pressure theory using fuzzy logic, we can systematically and precisely locate and track relative changes in the distribution of states within and across profile spaces, across geographical regions, as well as over time. This may be an important step toward identifying and possibly anticipating changes in the configuration of states, including conflict-prone constellations, before they escalate into conflict or war. It may also improve our understanding of those regions of the world and help articulate the implications of significant geopolitical changes as they occur. 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141516 An assessment of documentation standards for ten computer models of political problems Choucri, Nazli 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141515 Globalization of MIT: GSSD on the world wide web (www) Choucri, Nazli 1995-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141514 Energy and technological development in Latin America Choucri, Nazli By now, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is familiar to everyone: it is an almost perfect positive correlation which appears across time and in cross-national comparisons. Figure 1 shows the relationship between energy consumption and GNP in 1973 for select countries at different levels of development. The robustness of this relationship will necessitate macroeconomic adjustments due to oil price increases of 1973 and subsequent changes in the world oil market. Low fuel prices, which were instrumental in enabling rapid economic growth rates in the industrial west, can no longer be counted upon for growth in the developing world. While considerable ambiguity remains regarding the direction of causation whether from energy to economy or the other way around—the robustness of energy-economy interactions is not at issue: energy use, a necessary input for economic growth, is also a function of growth. Technological change in the energy area emerges in the forefront of policy concerns worldwide. 1981-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141513 Research initiative to understand & model state stability: Exploiting system dynamics. Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D. The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ...national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.” Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction – and hence create new threats to the nation’s security. We focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability. Initially, we will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will develop a country model, along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options. 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141512 Domestic energy pricing: Trends and implications for the Arab world Choucri, Nazli Energy use everywhere is tied to population growth, industrialization, expansion of urban centers, and development of industrial and infrastructural facilities. The decade of the 1970s saw dramatic changes in the economic activity and performance of Arab economies. New economic targets were set in place, with new priorities and investment strategies. Energy policy was becoming an important priority for every country in the Arab world. A critical issue in energy policy is that of pricing, that is, determining the appropriate valuation for domestic uses of energy. 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141511 Sustainability and diversity of development: Toward a generic model Choucri, Nazli; Berry, Rebecca This paper presents the generic framework for a national-level model of sustainability. The basic assumption is that there is not one model (or condition) but multiple possibilities; not one path, but a multiplicity of options. The countries of this world are diverse indeed, and the challenges facing them are both generic and idiosyncratic. In appreciation of the complexity and diversity of development, our approach is to depict underlying structural and functional linkages representing' the profile of states, with the objective of exploring possible paths over time in response to structural conditions as well as policy choices. 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141510 Threats to sustainability: Simulating conflict within and between nations Wils, Annababette; Kamiya, Matilde; Choucri, Nazli Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break. 1998-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141509 Environment and conflict: New principles for environmental conduct Choucri, Nazli The crucial connections between environment and conflict among nations continue to escape political scrutiny. The international community as yet pays little attention to such connections, thereby missing the opportunity for both preventive measures and effective responses to managing the consequences after the outbreak of war. Such acute international myopia serves neither global welfare nor efforts to design a better world for the twenty-first century. This article addresses some crucial connections. However compelling they may be, facts alone are seldom enough. Facts must be interpreted and decisions based on coherent analysis; only then can we consider the merits of alternative policy options-and choose among the best. By definition, conflict damages natural environments; ecological costs are always incurred; degradation leads to more degradation and invariably to environmental damage-and the vicious cycle can go on and on. Environ- mental damage in the Middle East following the Gulf war is among the most compelling cases to date. 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141508 Political economy of the global environment Choucri, Nazli The politicization of global environmental change has already injected scientific evidence (and uncertainties) in the policy domain—national and international. The nature of political discourse has and will continue to be affected by assessments of these changes. The purpose of this concluding discussion is threefold: (a) to identify conceptual elements for analysis of global environmental change which could provide a realistic framework for future research; (b) to identify salient features of the political economy of global environmental change; and (c) to identify key research and policy challenges in the study of international relations. Clearly the institutional and policy-related aspects are recognized by almost everyone as being crucial for developing an overall understanding of global change. Since human activities have contributed to fundamental interventions in natural processes, understanding the social underpinnings of these interventions (institutional, political, economic) is an essential part of an inquiry into the political economy of global change. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141507 Consequences of war in the middle east. Choucri, Nazli Japan can—and must—play a role in the peace process that will follow after the war in the Gulf. While Japan enjoys credibility with the Arab countries of the Middle East, it will be pressed by the United States to take more positive action than it has until now. 1991-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141506 Comments on "scientific forecasts in international relations" Choucri, Nazli The initial disclaimers at the outset of the article that the authors seek neither to forecast nor to make a contribution to the "corpus of knowledge" in this area leave one with a sense of uncertainty about the context in which the issues raised must be viewed. It would constitute the essence of unfair practice to regard the article in any context other than that intended by the authors. The following observations are, therefore, of a more general nature by way of clarifying some of the issues raised in that article. These comments are presented in the order in which they are discussed by the authors. 1979-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141505 Introduction: International political economy and the global environment Choucri, Nazli Conventional approaches to political economy, both national and international~ have traditionally focused upon matters relating to man and ignored interactions of humanity with nature, the effects of human action on natural environments, and the reaction of nature to human actions. Certainly this is no longer a defensible practice, either on theoretical or on empirical grounds. The profound dependence of humans on their natural environments--so taken for granted in biology, ecology, and other natural sciences--is only now beginning to be appreciated in the social sciences. And, most certainly, the traditional concerns of political economy cannot be ignored. New concerns do not invalidate the importance of older ones. :\t issue is the expansion of the frontiers of political economy and the extension of our common understanding of matters at the intersection of politics and economics. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141504 Introduction: CyberPolitics in International Relations Choucri, Nazli This issue of the International Political Science Review is devoted to new challenges and opportunities-as well as attendant problems-created by new information and communication technologies and applications in political science, with special attention to implications for international relations. The challenges are shaped in large part by the convergence of three trends: globalization, world-wide electronic connectivity, and emergent practices in knowledge networking. Increasingly, this convergence is reinforcing the role of knowledge in the global economy and in power politics. While each of these trends, individually, is having an impact on social discourse and modes of interaction, jointly they may be shaping powerful new parameters of politics, both nationally and internationally. They may also affect our ways of generating and managing knowledge, creating new knowledge, and even framing or re-framing the core concepts in political science. Central among these concepts, of course, are power, politics, representation, accountability, conflict, contention, and a host of others. In the context of the broader social sciences, these trends are also transforming traditional know- ledge practices, creating new research modes, and accelerating "new knowledge." 2000-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141503 Global e-readiness—for what? Readiness for e-banking Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D.; Gillett, Sharon E.; Haghseta, Farnaz; Zhu, Hongwei; Best, Michael L. With the rapid diffusion of the Internet worldwide, there has been considerable interest in the e-potentials of developing countries giving rise to a first generation of e-readiness studies. Moreover, e-readiness means different things to different people, in different contexts, and for different purposes. Despite strong merits, this first generation of e-readiness studies assumed a fixed, one-size-fits-all set of requirements, regardless of the characteristics of individual countries, the investment context, or the demands of specific applications. This feature obscures critical information for investors or policy analysts seeking to reduce uncertainties and make educated decisions. But there is very little known about e-readiness for e-banking. In particular, based on lessons learned to date and their implications for emerging realities of the 21st century, the authors designed and executed a research project with theoretical as well as practical dimensions to answer the question of “e-Readiness for What?,” focusing specifically on e-banking, based on the very assumption that one size can seldom, if ever, fit all. The authors also propose and develop a conceptual framework for the “next generation” e-readiness—focusing on different e-business applications in different economic contexts with potentially different pathways—as well as a data model—to explore e-readiness for e-banking in 10 countries. 2005-07-19T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141502 Towards a forecasting model of energy politics: International Perspectives Choucri, Nazli; Ross, David S.; Meadows, Dennis L. Almost everyone recognizes an energy problem but uncertainties remain about its political and economic implications, both domestic and international. Indeed, there is disagreement on the extent to which it is a crisis. The spectrum of opinion ranges from those who argue the present situation is due largely to shortages of supplies and impending depletion of oil reserves (Akins 1973). to those who maintain the crisis is artificial, created mainly by induced departures from perfect market conditions (Adelman 1972). Both groups agree the United States and the industrialized world face a problem, but the definition and solution of the problem remain much debated. 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141501 Background conditions to the outbreak of the First World War Choucri, Nazli This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of the attributes and capa- bilities of the major European states between the years 1870-1914. When war broke out in the summer of 1914 it was largely unexpected. The bipolarization of Europe into opposing camps-the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance- had been conceived mainly as a precautionary diplomatic measure. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment in some circles was that current conditions and relations between states could not have been better. In the space of six weeks, however, a seemingly localized dispute in the Balkans grew into a full-fledged European conflict, and over succeeding years the greater part of the world became involved. When fighting finally came to an end in 1918, the Austro-Hungarian monarchy was in dissolution, the Kaiser's Germany was on the point of collapse, and the whole world stood at a turning point. The investigations described below are part of a larger study designed to identify and determine the dynamics involved in the outbreak of World War I. This paper is presented as a tentative first report. There are many more analyses to be done with the data. Our intent is not to improve upon the historical accounts of a period which has been ably investigated by distinguished historians such as Sidney Fay and Luigi Albertini, nor to reopen old controversies about national responsibility and war guilt. Rather, the purpose is to focus on dimensions of inter-state behavior that have as yet not been fully examined. 1968-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141500 Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli The apparent neglect of quantitative methodology in political analysis can be explained partly by the absence of a common paradigm or frame of reference for political inquiry and partly by the lack of experience with experimental analysis of empirical data. The absence of general theory poses considerable difficulties for analysis and for specifying the nature of expected relationships or outcomes. For example, without a good theory of war, it is difficult to explain, account for, and predict wars among nations as well as to forecast the probable range of casualties, the extent or duration of violence, geographical scope, and so forth. And the absence of sufficient experience with quantitative analysis poses equally numerous difficulties bearing upon our ability to go beyond purely descriptive modes of inquiry. For example, without sound analytical and computational tools it is difficult to develop empirical models, or simulations, or forecasts of such dynamics. This paper examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the consequences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error. 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects Choucri, Nazli The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting. 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141498 The international petroleum exchange model: Reference results and validation Choucri, Nazli The author describes the IPE model and compares its main results with the data for 1970–1978. The model's results are close to the actual consumer-import demand for those years. The model's forecasts of the future demand for oil imports, over the next 20 years, are considerably lower than the forecasts produced by some other studies. 1980-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141497 International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective Choucri, Nazli The oil price increases of October 1973 triggered a set of changes in the international system that promise to have continued, long-term effects. This article begins with a review of the major attempts to model the world oil market and provides syntheses of their char acteristics and worldview. The structure of the International Petroleum Exchange Model developed at MIT is then presented, followed by a set of simulations (forecasts) of future changes in petroleum supply and demand associated with alternative price paths. The simulations are also compared with empirical data to provide some insights into the potential accuracy of the forecasts. 1982-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141496 Short-run energy-economy interactions in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Supriya, Lahiri This paper discusses the short-run adjustment mechanism of the Egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil. The effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short-run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy. The results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation, fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses. The analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors. 1984-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141495 Analyzing oil production in developing countries: A case study of Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher; Lynch, Michael This article presents a detailed simulation analysis of the domestic oil sector in Egypt; a near-typical, non-OPEC, oil-producing developing country. Egypt is a small producer by international standards, yet significant enough that its oil production is important for the country's economy and under certain conditions, for the international oil market as well. A dynamic computer simulation model that depicts significant characteristics of the country's oil sector is utilized to explore the implications of alternative scenarios for government policies, world oil prices, and geological parameters on patterns of production, exports, and export earnings. 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141494 Simulation models Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher This paper summarizes some basic assumptions and procedures for simulation approaches. A brief discussion of system dynamics is presented. A description of the International Petroleum Exchange Model (IPE) developed at MIT is presented. As a simulation model of the world oil market, IPE shows the interactions, adjustments, and behavior of major actors and agents, and of the underlying supply, demand, and price relationships. Illustrations of model results are presented along with comparison of alternative simulation scenarios. 1990-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141493 Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics Choucri, Nazli; Electris, C.; Goldsmith, D.; Mistree, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Morrison, J. B.; Siegel, M. D.; Sweitzer-Hamilton, M. The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability. 2006-03-04T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141492 cyberir.mit.edu Choucri, Nazli; Fairman, Lauren; Agarwal, Gaurav This website presents a brief introduction to Cyber-IR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. Cyber-IR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (MIT, 2009-2014) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The vision for Cyber-IR@MIT is shaped by the research for Cyberpolitics in International Relations, a book written by Nazli Choucri and published by MIT Press in 2012. The operational approach to the knowledge system is influenced by the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), developed earlier and focused on challenges of system sustainability. Cyber-IR@MIT gradually evolved into a knowledge-based system of human interactions in cyberspace and international relations, all embedded in the overarching natural system. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions.The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation – embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with f search and retrieval functions See related paper: Choucri, N., Fairman, L., & Agarwal, G. (2021). CyberIR@MIT: Knowledge for science, policy, practice (Working Paper No. 2021-1). MIT Political Science Department. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3936863 https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141744 2020-08-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141491 gssd.mit.edu Choucri, Nazli GSSD is an evolving knowledge networking system dedicated to sustainable development. Designed to help identify and extend innovative approaches toward sustainability—including enabling technologies, policies, and strategies—it tracks diverse aspects of challenges, problems, and emergent solutions to date. Specifically, it is a computer-assisted, organized system linking discrete actors with: (a) A knowledge producing capacity that is, (b) combined via common organizing principles, and (c) based on individual autonomy; such that (d) the value of networked knowledge is enhanced, and (e) the stock of knowledge is expanded further. 2020-08-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141490 ecir.mit.edu Choucri, Nazli Exploration in Cyber International Relations (ECIR), is the label of a multidisciplinary and multidimensional research project initiated under a grant from the Minerva Program, Department of Defense. A joint project of MIT and Harvard University, ECIR included, but was not limited to Political Science, Economics, Business and Management, Engineering, Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Law and Government. In response to new 21st c. realities, the goal is to construct a cyber-inclusive view of international relations (CyberIRworld) – with theory, data, analyses, simulations – to anticipate and respond to cyber threats and challenges to national security and international stability. The research design is modular (organized in core themes and cross cutting issues), supported by a multi-method strategy that enables the "individual" connect to an overarching "whole." ECIR is anchored in empirical analysis, buttressed by modeling, simulations, and the construction of new tools as needed. Basic assumptions are: (1) interdependence of technology and policy, (2) conjunction of uncertainty and regularity in human interactions, and (3) persistence of transformation and change in international relations. There is limited understanding of how cyberspace influences international relations and how power and politics in international relations influence the conduct and management of cyberspace. Dominant assumptions of the 20th century politics and policy are severely undermined by the 21st century deeply rooted in the cyber age with its dynamic and changing configurations. There are excellent maps and visual materials for international relations and its various facets. There are excellent maps of cyber access, different representations of traffic, and different features of cyberspace. Missing, however, is a combined view so essential for understanding the implications of the cyber domain and if effects on world politics. This problem is addressed through the use of multiple perspectives, methodologies, databases, and diverse analytical as initially manifested throughout our Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR). More recently, ECIR continued initially as an extension of the original ECIR research, but soon took on new challenges with new directions of inquiry. ECIR continued focuses on four distinctive but interconnected research themes. Disclaimer: Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Naval Research. 2020-09-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141487 Networked Database System for Geographically Dispersed Global Sustainability Data Choucri, Nazli; Kousoum, Juliana A system of computers and implemented method for identifying and organizing data relating to a global problem into a plurality of hierarchies of interrelated categories stored on a plurality of computer systems interconnected by a network. Each category of the hierarchies is divided into a topic having at least one concept and datatype. The method includes the steps of defining the connectivities between data among and within the hierarchies of interrelated categories stored on the plurality of computer systems; providing a mapping between the data related to each category and the computer systems storing the data; and providing access, for each of the entities, to the data within any of the categories stored on any of the computer systems in response to the mapping. Current U.S. Class: 1/1; 709/203; 707/E17.032; 707/999.01; 707/999.104 Current CPC Class: G06F 16/25 (20190101); Y10S 707/99945 (20130101) Current International Class: G06F 17/30 (20060101); G06F 017/30 () Field of Search: ;395/610,615 1996-04-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/138136.2 A Systematic Framework to Understand Transnational Governance for Cybersecurity Risks from Digital Trade Huang, Keman; Madnick, Stuart E; Choucri, Nazli; Zhang, Fang Governing cybersecurity risks from digital trade is a growing responsibility for governments and corporations. This study develops a systematic framework to delineate and analyze the strategies that governments and corporations take to address cybersecurity risks from digital trade. It maps out the current landscape based on a collection of 75 cases where governments and corporations interact to govern transnational cybersecurity risks. This study reveals that: first, governing cybersecurity risks from digital trade is a global issue whereby most governments implement policies with concerning that the cybersecurity risks embedded within purchasing transnational digital products can influence their domestic political and societal systems. Second, governments dominates the governance interactions by implementing trade policies whereas corporations simply comply. Corporations do, however, have chances to take more active roles in constructing the governance system. Third, supply chain cybersecurity risks have more significant impacts on governance mode between governments and corporations whereas concerns on different national cybersecurity risks do not. Fourth, the interactions between governments and corporations reveal the exisitence of loops that can amplify or reduce cybersecurity risks. This provides policy implications on transnational cybersecurity governance for policy makers and business leaders to consider their potential options and understand the global digital trade environment when cybersecurity and digital trade overlap. 2021-08-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111071 Uneasy welcome--the political economy in migration policy in Kuwait Russell, Sharon Stanton, 1944- Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1987.; Bibliography: v. 2, leaves 396-422. 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/109623 Rise and decline of ethno-national movements of Pakistan : domestic and international factors Amin, Tahir Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1988.; Title as it appeared in M.I.T. Graduate Lists, February 1988: Ethno-national movements of Pakistan: domestic and international factors.; Bibliography: v. 2, leaves 314-330. 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105890 The Theory of Lateral Pressure Highlights of Quantification & Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli Lateral Pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of individuals and societies to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. Lateral Pressure theory seeks to explain the relationships between state characteristics and patterns of international behavior. The theory addresses the sources and consequences of transformation and change in international relations and provides a basis for analyzing potential feedback dynamics. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries – driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations – they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics leading hostilities, escalation, and eventually to conflict and violence. These processes are contingent on the actors’ intents, capabilities, and activities. The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers, that is, the master variables that shape the profiles of states -- through the intervening variables, namely, aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities -- the outcome often generates added complexities. This paper proceeds as follows: First we highlight the basic features of lateral pressure theory, its core components, and their interconnections. Some aspects are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are more consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Second, we summarize the phases of empirical investigations and the evolution of theory over time. Third, we return to basics and focus on the refinements of metrics and quantification of the core concepts. All of this pertains to the world, as we have known it prior to the construction of the Internet, the core of cyberspace. Fourth, we then turn briefly to results so far of our o research on lateral pressure in the cyber domain. The Endnote highlights some emerging imperatives. 2016-11-11T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/97324 Finding order in a contentious Internet Sowell, Jesse H., II (Jesse Horton) This inquiry started with the simple question, "Who manages the Internet infrastructure and how?" Since, this question evolved into an evaluation of the routing system and the institutions that manage it. This institutional complex is referred to as the number resource system (NRS). NRS authority is contingent, rooted in consensus based knowledge assessment necessary to adapt apace with Internet growth. The efficiency with which observable negative externalities are remediated is a compelling entry point to this work. The Pakistan-YouTube story is a halcyon parable of "self-repair." Network operators recognized a global negative externality, traced it to the origin, and remediated the complicit networks in approximately three hours. To the casual observer, organic cooperation surfaced to remediate damages, then dissolved into the background noise of "normal operations." Remediation is far from organic; rather, it is a consequence of distinct rights and obligations amongst, and enforced by, NRS participants. Explaining the rationale and mechanics of "ad hoc" crisis management is the first contribution of this work. The early NRS comprised "close-knit yet loosely organized" communities created to 1) share operational knowledge (network operator groups, NOGs); 2) delegate unique network identifiers (Regional Internet Registries, RIRs); 3) create neutral markets for exchanging routes and traffic (Internet eXchanges, IXes); and 4) limit abusive messaging (anti-spam, later anti-abuse). Alongside Internet growth, NRS norms evolved into distinct institutions, replete with function-specific constitutional, collective choice, and operational rules for managing the knowledge commons and facilities supporting routing system function. The NRS institutions form a contingent social order, rooted in shared, authoritative images of system function and externalities management. NRS institutions collectively ensure participants common interests in the jointly provisioned routing system stability. The second contribution of this work explains NRS institutional structures and how the attendant rules keep pace with a high clockspeed Internet infrastructure. NRS institutions are characteristically, and necessarily, adaptive: each comprises a unique consensus process, animated by a diverse set of nominal competitors, that creates and adapts function-specific rules and processes contributing to routing system integrity. Consensus processes evaluate the performance of common resource management rules and, when-not if-necessary, adapt these rules to satisfy changing resource demands and patterns of use in the broader Internet infrastructure industry. Anticipation and evaluation in the consensus process are essential to adaptive capability, framed as a form of joint knowledge assessment. Moreover, diverse representation, comprising experts across industry sub-sectors, animated by constructive conflict amongst these experts, mediated by consensus processes, makes for a durable family of credible knowledge assessment processes that are rare amongst conventional regulatory arrangements. Processes described thus far are largely endogenous to the NRS and its constituencies. Historically these institutions have operated quietly underneath the hood. Adaptation and the resulting policy is scoped to common interests, explicitly avoiding impinging on public policy. In contrast to conventional international regimes, the NRS self-limits to the scope of its authority, namely supporting and enhancing routing system function. Thus far, the NRS's common interests have not run counter to the public interest. Nonetheless, a path-dependent history of harmonious alignment between a common and the public does not carry the assurances of alignment resulting from explicit coordination and cooperation. Some states and state-sanctioned international governance organizations see control of NRS facilities as critical to preserving their own authority. Predatory claims to stewardship of routing system resources further complicates the alignment problem. To better frame and understand this alignment problem, the concluding chapters of the dissertation explore the question: 'Are the incentives and resources of NRS institutions commensurate with the aggregate social loss due to a partial, or worse yet, systemic, failure?" Simply put, absent the progress on the explicit assurances above, the answer is no. Would-be state principals also fall short. State-based authorities are severely deficient in basic operational capacity that form the foundation of knowledge assessment capabilities and subsequent adaptive capabilities in the NRS. States' deficiencies correspond to those capabilities engendered by the NRS. Adding NRS stewardship to a state's portfolio of domestic regulatory interests will expose management processes to powerful short-term interests that will inevitably weaken, if not eliminate, extant credible knowledge assessment and adaptive capabilities. In effect, aggressive predatory rule would likely eliminate precisely the characteristics that make the NRS a valuable steward of a high clockspeed infrastructure. This initial conclusion is not a prediction of adaptive management doomed to failure. Although neither the NRS, nor state authorities, have sufficient capabilities and modes of authority to manage an Internet underpinning an ever-increasing array of public, private, and social goods on their own, a mix of their capabilities is sufficient. Rather, the conclusion frames a discussion of what explicit assurances will look like and the barriers to developing those assurances. The last part of this dissertation lays out the challenges for establishing such a comity, a mutual recognition of the norms and authority between the NRS and state authorities. In the global political arena, the NRS's political capital is credible knowledge assessment and adaptive capacity as the roots of authoritative policy advice. Barriers to explicit assurances draw lessons from the deconstruction and reconstruction of scientific knowledge in political environments, instances of international epistemic consensus, and characteristics of elusive, but effective, adaptation that has survived in conventional regulatory environments. Analytically, the dissertation argues the NRS and state authority need not be competitors-the two can be quite complementary. If these two sets of institutions can avoid the pitfalls of previous efforts, in particular short-term usurpation of the others' authority, the global, nondiscriminatory character of the Internet may be sustainable. Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 477-498). 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88399 Sustainability standards for biofuels : analyses of the current standards and recommendations of the future direction Lee, Leebong Past decades have seen development and expansion of biofuels industry around the world thanks to the environmental and economic contribution that biofuels have promised. As more and more people became concerned about the real benefits of biofuels in comparison to the conventional fossil-based options, the need for ensuring sustainability of biofuels has emerged, which, in turn, led to the development of numerous sustainability standards for biofuels over the last decade. This work analyzes and compares a selected set of nine standards developed by organizations with different scales and characteristics. Based on this analysis, major weaknesses and limitations of the standards are presented and possible recommendations addressing those weaknesses are provided. It was concluded that one of the major limitations of the nine standards is the lack of harmonization. Many standards deal with different feedstock, products, and scopes of supply chain among others. Therefore, it is suggested that international organizations, particularly the ISO, CEN, RSB, GBEP and FAO take the lead in providing the fundamental common grounds for harmonization of standards. In addition, the inclusion of technological sustainability area is recommended in order to properly address issues that are strongly dependent on the nature of current technologies used. Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2014.; Some pages printed landscape. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (pages 152-156). 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/71264 Modeling Renewable Energy Readiness: The UAE Context Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Mezher, Toufic Modeling technology policy is becoming an increasingly important capability to steer states and societies toward sustainability. This paper presents a simulation-modeling approach to evaluate renewable energy readiness, that is, the ability to develop renewable energy, taking into account critical ecological, economic, governance, and institutional factors that generally shape energy policy. While the dynamics underlying shifts towards renewable energy are generic, we focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a counter-intuitive case. The UAE is a major oil rich and oil exporting country, with large untapped reserves. Yet it has made a policy decision to develop sources of renewable energy. The absence of basic institutional, managerial, and infrastructure requirements creates major barriers that must be surmounted if this policy is to be effectively pursued. For these and other reasons, the UAE serves as a "hard test" for the potentials of renewable energy and can eventually be used as a model for other oil exporting countries. The UAE has already made strides along a trajectory in trial and error ways. As such, it helps demonstrate in theory and practice the readiness for renewable energy-that can help articulate effective policy trajectories. 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/64545 Reading contamination : an environmental education center at the Wells G&H Superfund Site Berry, Rebecca Lynn, 1973- This thesis proposes and architectural and programmatic methodology which makes legible the processes and consequences of site contamination. This methodology is chiefly demonstrated through a plan for the site which emerges from the examination of the intersection of site contamination with the site's (natural) characteristics and perceptual phenomena, The site plan arises from the (abstract) institutional entities associated with the site. These entities - the wetlands demarcation zone in particular - begin to organize the site in a way which speaks not to the site's (natural) systems, but to the institutional systems which govern the site, and the means by which these systems deal with contamination. The site is populated by wells which have been drilled to monitor pollutant levels in the groundwater. The wells (non-natural) monitor the (natural) processes of site contamination. The lines of sight between these wells (as abstraction) become the generators for site geometries, and the placement and form of the built (architectural) areas of the site. Each built area has two sides defined by the wetlands demarcation line. Within the non-protected zone, the ground is engaged and inhabited. Within the protected zone, users never engage the ground, but instead float above it. These varied experiences of ground delineate the idea of ground as more than plane, as instead a multi-layered strata. The tectonics of the individual built elements vary as one crosses the demarcation line. This contrast between (natural) materials in the non-protected zone and (non-natural) materials within the protected zone makes legible the invasion of contamination. The different construction methods also demonstrate the fragility of the wetlands soils. At the same time, the lifting of the structures from the ground emphasizes the danger to the ground from man, and the danger to man from the ground. Due to the nature of the wetlands soils, contamination from a point source has a tendency to distribute itself throughout the site. The institution, an "environmental education center," disperses itself throughout the site. This dispersion forces the users to continually re-confront the site, making the link between the site's contamination and its (natural) characteristics legible through experience. Thesis (M.Arch.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1999.; Vita.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-87). 1999-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/63241 A matrix based integrated framework for multi disciplinary exploration of cyber-international relations Gaurav, Agarwal Cyberspace is the most pervasive and rapidly adopted communication media and the most disruptive until date. It is now indispensable for almost every facet of modern society and touches, practically, everyone by providing a powerful platform for interaction and innovation. Given the widespread availability of tools to operate in this environment, a growing array of actors are trying to benefit as they seek to control critical decision points in the real world and cyberspace. It is imperative to understand what cyberspace "is made of' - over and above the Internet and answer the question "who gets what, when, and how?" The intent of this research initiative is to contribute to the generation, management and sharing of knowledge to enhance understandings of the emerging area of cyber-international relations as a complex, flexible and adaptive domain of interactions. The first contribution of this thesis is the development of a multi-dimensional Cyber System for Strategic Decisions (CSSD) framework. This framework enables a holistic identification of the elements of a system, which are structured as set of nested and hierarchical relationships. It facilitated in mapping the entities that comprise different domains of cyberspace and the dependencies within and across those entities. The second contribution of this thesis is the development of the foundations for an internally consistent and articulate representation of cyber-international relations in terms of actors- individuals and group of individuals, layers of the Internet and the context of cyber engagement that form the basis of the CSSD framework. This approach can be applied to diverse domains to build scenarios and model different facets of both the real world and cyberspace according to the practical needs. The instruments and intensity of engagement and the extent of time of engagement are the two dependencies that map the interactions among the different entities. The third contribution of this thesis is the development of a robust, comprehensive, and coherent test use-case based on "Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)" domain. The CSSD framework is then adapted to test its applicability to the use-case. IPR has been selected as the test use-case because it provided both the legal understanding and legislative efforts at international level, in as collaborative, effective and uniform manner as possible, to protect the rights of intellectual property owners and to avoid future conflicts. Thesis (S.M. in Engineering and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 117-130). 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61833 Winning the competitive edge in the DRAM market : a system dynamics analysis Liu, Wenyun, 1971- Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1998.; Includes bibliographical references. 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/58084 Nuclear non-proliferation regime effectiveness : an integrated methodology for analyzing highly enriched uranium production scenarios at gas centrifuge enrichment plants Kwak, Taeshin (Taeshin S.) The dramatic change in the international security environment after the collapse of the bipolar system has had a negative impact on the effectiveness of the existing nuclear non-proliferation regime. Furthermore, the success of the Pakistani Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Technology (GCET)- based nuclear weapons program has imposed a great challenge on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. In this context, this study tried to answer two questions: (a) what is the probability of proliferators successfully producing Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants (GCEPs) and (b) how effective is the current NPT regime in dealing with this issue. In order to tackle these two questions, an integrated methodology is used that reflects all factors affecting the nuclear proliferation on the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle. A quantitative assessment of the proliferation risks of producing HEU for multiple scenarios is presented using success tree models, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, importance measures, and expert opinion. This assessment identifies the factors that can reduce the proliferators' success of producing HEU, which will be helpful in prioritizing the use of the IAEA's limited resources.; (cont.) The study found that legal capabilities of the NPT regime are more problematic than technological capabilities in preventing proliferators from producing HEU at GCEPs, since the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the only NPT regime component that has compliance-enforcing resources. This study recommends three approaches as follows: First, the NPT regime should take a multi-faceted approach that incorporates all NPT regime components into each step of nuclear weapons program development. Second, the NPT regime should impose nuclear elements control via Multilateral Export Control Regimes (MECRs). Third, the NPT regime should develop an approach that challenges HEU production from both technological- and legal points of view. Since law governs technological capability, a multidimensional approach that includes this relationship would be more effective than an approach that focuses on either aspect individually. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2010.; Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 399-417). 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/52749 Does it take one or two to tango? : language skills, physical appearance, and immigrant integration in Germany Wickboldt, Anne-Katrin, 1970- Breaking with a long-held political stance that Germany is, despite a sizeable share of permanent immigrant residents, not a country of immigration, the German legislature has drawn up a new immigration law, which entered into force in January 2005. It states a new commitment to integrate legal immigrants into German society by teaching them German and acquainting them with the legal, cultural, and historical precepts of the German state and society. To gauge the role of the host society in the integration process, I use a three-pronged methodological approach to evaluate the influence of physical appearance and several other potentially salient attributes of immigrants on integration outcomes. Statistical analysis of recent census data provides a general picture of economic integration outcomes of foreign national residents in Germany. More specific information gathered by way of a structured survey among second generation immigrants in Germany allows me to investigate deeper levels of integration using variables geared more narrowly to my research question. Finally, qualitative interviews provide valuable insights into whether and to what extent immigrants themselves perceive language skills and physical appearance, as well as other issues, as shaping their integration experience. Overall, my analysis suggests that language proficiency is a strong predictor of economic integration. The impact of physical appearance, by comparison, is negligible. The survey suggests that despite high levels of cultural, social, and identificational integration, immigrants still feel disadvantage as a function of their cultural difference from the host society. They also universally report having and cherish ties to both German and their society of origin. In-depth interviews suggest that second generation immigrants, although aware of a certain degree of discrimination, do not see it as a major issue. Still, lasting emotional attachment to Germany could be boosted by policies that show genuine acceptance of immigrants' perceived or real ties to two cultures and communities, and recognize the assets they entail. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2008.; This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.; Page 239 is a foldout table. Includes survey in German.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 263-287). 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/45720 The U.S. Army Coprs [sic] of Engineer's role in reconstruction of Kuwait : a case study and its implications for future international missions Baker, Brian Lee Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1992.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-103). 1992-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/44793 Development of a Bayesian Network to monitor the probability of nuclear proliferation Holcombe, Robert (Robert Joseph) Nuclear Proliferation is a complex problem that has plagued national security strategists since the advent of the first nuclear weapons. As the cost to produce nuclear weapons has continued to decline and the availability of nuclear material has become more widespread, the threat of proliferation has increased. The spread of technology and the globalization of the information age has made the threat not only more likely, but also more difficult to detect. Proliferation experts do not agree on the universal factors which cause nations to want to proliferate or the methods to prevent countries from successfully developing nuclear weapons. Historical evidence also indicates that the current nuclear powers pursued their nuclear programs for different reasons and under different conditions. This disparity presents a problem to decision makers who are tasked with preventing further nuclear proliferation. Bayesian Inference is a tool of quantitative analysis that is rapidly gaining interest in numerous fields of scientific study that have previously been limited to purely statistical methods. The Bayesian approach removes the statistical limitations of large-n data sets and strictly numerical types of data. It allows researchers to include sparse and rich data as well as qualitative data based on the opinions of subject matter experts. Bayesian inference allows the inclusion of both the quantitative data and subjective judgments in the determination of predictions about a theory of interest. This means that contrary to classic statistical methods, we can now make accurate predictions with reduced information and apply this probabilistic method to problems in social science. The problem of nuclear proliferation is one that lends itself to a Bayesian analysis. The data set is relatively small and the data is far from consistent from country to country.; (cont.) There is however, a wide body of literature that seeks to explain proliferation factors and capabilities through both quantitative and qualitative means. This varied field can be brought together in a coherent method using Bayesian inference and specifically Bayesian Networks which graphically represent the various causal linkages. This work presents the development of a Bayesian Network describing the various causes, factors, and capabilities leading to proliferation. This network is constructed with conditional probabilities using theoretical insights and expert opinion. Bayesian inference using historical and real time events within the structure of the network is then used to give a decision maker an informed prediction of the proliferation danger of a specific country and inferences about which factors are causing it. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2008.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 110-112). 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/44644 Regional integration in the developing world : ASEAN in a new perspective Yamakage, Susumu Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1982.; MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY; Bibliography: leaves 264-273. 1982-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/10154 Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models Fiddaman, Thomas S. (Thomas Scott) Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1997.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 799-205). 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38599 The private sector's capacity to manage climate risks and finance carbon neutral energy infrastructure Hart, Craig A This dissertation examines the financial aspects of climate change relating to the private sector's capacity to manage climate risks and finance carbon neutral energy infrastructure. The dissertation examines (a) potential risks posed by climate change to private sector investment in critical infrastructure, (b) the potential effectiveness of standard private contractual methods for mitigating risks posed by climate change, (c) the capacity of private capital markets to finance carbon neutral energy infrastructure, and (d) the potential for market failure in developing carbon neutral energy infrastructure. The dissertation first identifies climate risks to infrastructure by examining scientific evidence concerning climate change from studies and atmospheric models. Based on this data, it modifies a framework widely used by practitioners in the finance field for purposes of evaluating financial risks in infrastructure projects. Using the modified risk assessment framework, the dissertation identifies financial risks posed by climate change to financing and developing infrastructure. The dissertation then assesses whether these climate risks can be mitigated and managed by employing private contractual methods typically used in infrastructure finance, such as insurance, derivatives, and carbon offsets.; (cont.) Each contract is evaluated based on the following six criteria: (a) scope of risk covered, (b) geographic coverage, (c) contract duration, (d) availability, (e) price, and (f) market capacity. Based on these criteria, the potential for these private contractual methods to address long-term climate change risks is assessed. The evaluation of climate risk and methods to address these risks are similar to the identification, allocation, and mitigation of risks that is commonly preformed by banks and project sponsors in order to evaluate the risks of an infrastructure investment. The conclusion of the dissertation's analysis is that climate risks will pose fundamental problems for infrastructure finance, including that no party may be best positioned to accept and mitigate climate risks, and that private contractual methods typically used by the private sector will be inadequate to address climate risks in a comprehensive and cost-effective manner. If this is true, climate risks should reduce the private sector's willingness or ability to invest in or develop infrastructure. The risk assessment analysis will be supplemented by three case studies focusing on different financial aspects of climate change in sectors of the economy that are critical to developing carbon neutral energy infrastructure:; (cont.) (i) the capacity of capital markets to supply adequate investment capital to develop a portfolio of carbon neutral electricity infrastructure providing 10-15 TW of power within a 50-year period, (ii) the financial effects of increasingly intense storms on the electric utility industry in the Eastern United States from 1990 to 2005, and (iii) the financial effects of the increasing frequency and intensity of natural catastrophic events on the insurance industry from the 1970's to 2005, especially in connection with underwriting risks for energy infrastructure. The research is supported by a survey of the insurance, derivatives, banking, and energy industries with respect to their use of private contractual risk management methods and an examination of the models used to price these contractual instruments. This dissertation is intended to contribute to economic and policy literature concerning climate change by providing an analysis of how the financial aspects of climate change might influence the capacity and willingness of the private sector to invest in carbon neutral energy infrastructure. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, February 2007.; Includes bibliographical references (v. 2, leaves 275-312). 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/37975 Privacy in context : the costs and benefits of a new deidentification method Trepetin, Stanley The American public continues to be concerned about medical privacy. Policy research continues to show people's demand for health organizations to protect patient-specific data. Health organizations need personally identifiable data for unhampered decision making; however, identifiable data are often the basis of information abuse if such data are improperly disclosed. This thesis shows that health organizations may use deidentified data for key routine organizational operations. I construct a technology adoption model and investigate if a for-profit health insurer could use deidentified data for key internal software quality management applications. If privacy-related data are analyzed without rigor, little support is found to incorporate more privacy protections into such applications. Legal and financial motivations appear lacking. Adding privacy safeguards to such software programs apparently doesn't improve policy-holder care quality. Existing technical approaches do not readily allow for data deidentification while permitting key computations within the applications. A closer analysis of data reaches different conclusions. I describe the bills that are currently passing through Congress to mitigate abuses of identifiable data that exist within organizations.; (cont.) I create a cost and medical benefits model demonstrating the financial losses to the insurer and medical losses to its policy-holders due to less privacy protection within the routine software applications. One of the model components describes the Predictive Modeling application (PMA), used to identify an insurer's chronically-ill policy-holders. Disease management programs can enhance the care and reduce the costs of such individuals because improving such people's health can reduce costs to the paying organization. The model quantifies the decrease in care and rise in the insurer's claim costs as the PMA must work with suboptimal data due to policy-holders' privacy concerns regarding the routine software applications. I create a model for selecting variables to improve data linkage in software applications in general. An encryption-based approach, which allows for the secure linkage of records despite errors in linkage variables, is subsequently constructed. I test this approach as part of a general data deidentification method on an actual PMA used by health insurers. The PMA's performance is found to be the same as if executing on identifiable data. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2006.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 131-150). 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/37196 Dependence, independence, and interdependence in world politics Mistree, Dinsha (Dinsha Farrokh Allen) We implement techniques of graph theory to international trade in order to empirically inspect the international system of trade. Examining macro and submacro levels of the international system of trade from 1962-2003, we find the presence of a Scale-Free Network with a Multiscalar Hierarchy. Such structures are resilient to bottom-up economic collapse, but are susceptible to top-down and horizontal economic failures. Our findings are based upon an especially novel approach for examining submacro systems, applying latent community identification analysis to identify trading communities that are not necessarily formalized or institutionalized as trading blocs. Following this analysis, we examine the role of international institutions in the international trade network, specifically considering macro level institutions for stability solutions and examining the effects of joining a trade bloc. We find evidence that supports the intergovernmentalist framework, whereby certain types of trade blocs seem to succeed while others fail, leading to different results in integration and unification. Thesis (S.M. and S.B.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2006.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 150-156). 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34485 Effective information integration and reutilization : solutions to technological deficiency and legal uncertainty Zhu, Hongwei The amount of electronically accessible information has been growing exponentially. How to effectively use this information has become a significant challenge. A post 9/11 study indicated that the deficiency of semantic interoperability technology hindered the ability to integrate information from disparate sources in a meaningful and timely fashion to allow for preventive precautions. Meanwhile, organizations that provided useful services by combining and reusing information from publicly accessible sources have been legally challenged. The Database Directive has been introduced in the European Union and six legislative proposals have been made in the U.S. to provide legal protection for non-copyrightable database contents, but the Directive and the proposals have differing and sometimes conflicting scope and strength, which creates legal uncertainty for valued-added data reuse practices. The need for clearer data reuse policy will become more acute as information integration technology improves to make integration much easier. This Thesis takes an interdisciplinary approach to addressing both the technology and the policy challenges, identified above, in the effective use and reuse of information from disparate sources.; (cont.) The technology component builds upon the existing Context Interchange (COIN) framework for large-scale semantic interoperability. We focus on the problem of temporal semantic heterogeneity where data sources and receivers make time-varying assumptions about data semantics. A collection of time-varying assumptions are called a temporal context. We extend the existing COIN representation formalism to explicitly represent temporal contexts, and the COIN reasoning mechanism to reconcile temporal semantic heterogeneity in the presence of semantic heterogeneity of time. We also perform a systematic and analytic evaluation of the flexibility and scalability of the COIN approach. Compared with several traditional approaches, the COIN approach has much greater flexibility and scalability. For the policy component, we develop an economic model that formalizes the policy instruments in one of the latest legislative proposals in the U.S. The model allows us to identify the circumstances under which legal protection for non-copyrightable content is needed, the different conditions, and the corresponding policy choices.; (cont.) Our analysis indicates that depending on the cost level of database creation, the degree of differentiation of the reuser database, and the efficiency of policy administration, the optimal policy choice can be protecting a legal monopoly, encouraging competition via compulsory licensing, discouraging voluntary licensing, or even allowing free riding. The results provide useful insights for the formulation of a socially beneficial database protection policy. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology, Management, and Policy Program, February 2006.; "September 2005."; Includes bibliographical references (p. 141-148). 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8660 Global Knowledge Network Huang, Biao, 1970- The convergence of Digital Economy, Globalization, and Knowledge-based Economy, creates the potential for Global Knowledge Networks and e-Knowledge Commerce. "The e-knowledge markets will grow to be a $1 trillion global micro-economy by 2010," estimated by Kaieteur Institute For Knowledge Management in 2000. The next wave of growth is likely to be associated with E-Knowledge Commerce, far exceeding the ECommerce. However, up to date, significant disconnections exist among Digital Economy, Knowledge-based Economy, and Globalization. e-Knowledge Commerce is too new to have business models to exist in either the business world or literatures. This thesis tries to fill this significant gap, by focusing on a new type of global institutional development, known as Global Knowledge Network, by defining its characteristic features and formulating the relevant 'best business models.' More specifically, this thesis (a) determines and formulates business models relevant for different types of e-Knowledge Commerce, and (b) explores how to develop the functionality of a Global Knowledge Network such as Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD) in the context of e-Knowledge Commerce. Furthermore, this thesis examines the policy and legal issues in e-Knowledge Commerce & Global Knowledge Network, such as intellectual property right, customer privacy, digital trusted system, security such as firewalls, encryption, watermark, etc. Finally, draws conclusions about e-Knowledge Commerce & Global Knowledge Network and provides some recommendations for further research work. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 2001.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-115). 2001-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8856 The value of knowledge networks : conceptual framework in application to sustainable production Haraldsson, Vignir Mar, 1969- The thesis is motivated by two major trends: the rise of a global information and knowledge economy, and environmental degradation and the search for sustainable solutions. The increasing importance of knowledge has by some been equated with a new industrial revolution, one based on computer technology, digital infrastructure, and highly educated and technically skilled workers. But how do we assess the value of knowledge in this 'new' economy? The question over value is explored through the diffusion and localization of new knowledge via a knowledge network, based on information technology. The central argument is that in the knowledge economy, the value of knowledge lies in the ability to share it over a knowledge network, which allows for diffusion and localization of new knowledge. This central thesis and the value of knowledge networks is further explored by looking at the case of environmentally friendly or sustainable production. The knowledge network targets barriers to environmentally friendly practices by encouraging and enabling diffusion of knowledge related to sustainable products and processes. The knowledge scope for environmental solutions is analyzed, with the objective to develop common categories, and to understand better the increasing complexities and knowledge needs as enterprises engage in sustainable production. In discussing the knowledge economy and knowledge networks, the thesis focuses mostly on the business enterprise. But the development of the knowledge age has much larger implications, such as 'knowledge for whom?' and 'value for whom?'. The information technologies and networks offer new ways for people and groups to interact and influence social issues and can enable the diffusion of wide variety of views and perspectives. Thinking about the information and knowledge age in the larger economic and social context requires us to consider who builds, controls, influences and benefits from the technology and its use. Before we can reasonably approach this analysis, a basic conceptual framework or understanding of knowledge sharing, knowledge networks, and value of knowledge is called for. This thesis is a building block for such a framework, a contribution to future research into the economic and social implications of the knowledge economy. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2000.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 54-56). 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/10094 Private regimes and legitimacy : the politics of self-regulation in liner shipping and international standardization Sundgren, Jan Matias, 1962- Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1998.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 134-153). 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/10544 Strategic assessment of Indonesian technological policy : an analysis from technology trangle framework Priaadi, Yudo Dwinanda Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1997.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-81). 1997-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11370 Roads to the rule of law : the emergence of an independent judiciary in contemporary Egypt Rosberg, James H. (James Howard) Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1995.; Includes bibliographical references (v. 2, leaves 378-396). 1995-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/13893 Wars as international learning: Chinese, British and Japanese in East Asia. Inoguchi, Takashi Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Political Science. Thesis. 1974. Ph.D.; MICROFICHE COPY ALSO AVAILABLE IN DEWEY LIBRARY.; Vita.; Bibliography: leaves 591-627. 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17661 Re-engineering knowledge networks for development Raghavan, Amrith, 1976- This thesis examines the evolution of Internet based knowledge networks (e-knowledge networks) in the domain of sustainable development. The objective of this thesis is to use an engineering systems approach to understand knowledge networks, identify the barriers to their sustainability and recommend strategies for re-engineering them. e-Knowledge Networks refer to the set of Internet based tools and platforms that support communication, collaboration and group decision-making processes amongst groups of individuals. e-knowledge networks are particularly important in the context of international development initiatives that recognize that knowledge is the key to technological change and sustainable economic development. This thesis is intended to aid knowledge network managers and researchers in their efforts towards making their knowledge networks sustainable. The thesis addresses in depth the most important barrier towards a knowledge network's sustainability- the problem of collective action among the participants of a knowledge network. It takes the view that knowledge is a public good, and a knowledge network would face the problem of under provision of this public good due the problem of free-riding and lack of mechanisms to mobilize collective action. This thesis provides guidelines and recommendations for the restructuring of incentives and organizational policies and the re-engineering of the technology to overcome this barrier. The thesis first outlines a framework and taxonomy for describing different knowledge network configurations and maps out the state of existence of important knowledge networks existing in the sustainable development domain within this framework. It then provides individual and comparative; (cont.) studies of two important knowledge networks related to sustainable development- the MIT developed Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD) and the Development Gateway's Knowledge Network. The engineering systems approach used in this thesis enables the study of each of the sub-systems that make up a knowledge network- the human subsystem, the technological subsystem and the institutional subsystem. This is done with the view towards providing insights into the structure of the network and the network of relationships that develop within a Knowledge Network, determining the motivations that drives the creators and the participants and the incentives that have been engineered into the technological and organizational policies to meet these motivations and assessing the quality, quantity and the evolution of knowledge and the throughput of participants in the network. A detailed description of each of the subsystems is provided and the interrelationships amongst them are analyzed and the result is synthesized to develop an integrated framework for the assessment of knowledge networks. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2004.; Includes bibliographical references. 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17563 Global knowledge networking for the multinational enterprise Lim, Shung Yar, 1979- This thesis proposes a technology strategy that is formulated to serve as the foundation for a holistic. global knowledge networking strategy for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This thesis is framed in the context of the increasing salience of knowledge for all enterprises, everywhere, today. The uncertainties of the marketplace, global e-business opportunities born of the Internet revolution, and the paradigmatic shifts in thought on organizational design have amplified the demand for the right knowledge of the right kind at the right time. The multi-dimensional nature of knowledge and the complexities of enterprise activities are compounded by the fact that enterprises today are increasingly globalized and seeking to globally expand its activities. The capabilities to acquire quality-controlled knowledge within the necessary time-horizons, and the capabilities to leverage and diffuse acquired knowledge throughout the organization have become critical. However, the mechanisms by which to perform and enable these functions are not strategically integrated across the organization, and on a global basis. This thesis focuses on the knowledge network as a mechanism and as a process by which to coordinate innovation and learning for enterprises and enterprise-value-networks on a global basis. While knowledge networks have been formed in both non-profit and for-profit sectors, this thesis will be concerned solely with knowledge networks for businesses. Knowledge networks can be analyzed into technology and human elements, but often there is no coordinating strategy that synthesizes both elements into integrative solutions that can capture the value of knowledge for the enterprise. The hypothesis . guiding this thesis is that existing models of knowledge networking are not sufficiently holistic. and proposes an integrated knowledge networking strategy that leverages both technology infrastructure and human competencies in meeting organizational knowledge requirements. The emergent nature of strategically initiated knowledge networks in business can adapt knowledge networking solutions that have been developed in the non-profit sector. One such framework for knowledge networking from the non-profit sector is the GSSD (Global System for Sustainable Development) initiative, developed in MIT with partners in academic institutions around the world, is one such methodology that aims to facilitate knowledge flows and knowledge sharing on a global scale. This thesis (a) develops a technology strategy that adapts the GSSD framework for enterprises that operate on a global scale, (b) illustrates its conceptual feasibility by proposing several designs for GSSD-E, or GSSD for the enterprise, and (c) applies the designs to a test case. The test case is a conceptual implementation of the GSSD-E design for Sony Environmental Management Systems. The thesis concludes by suggesting further possible directions in researching GSSD-E possibilities. Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2003.; Includes bibliographical references (leaves 122-126). 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17189 Alcohol as fuel in Brazil : an alternative energy policy and politics Santos, Maria Helena de Castro Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1985.; MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY.; Bibliography: leaves 671-718. 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/16800 Between global flows & territorial control : the state, tourism development, and the politics of reterritorialization in the Middle East Hazbun, Waleed (Waleed Albert), 1968- This dissertation presents a new type of theory about the impact of increased transnational capital flows on state building processes. Most of the political science literature about globalization has been focused on debating the question of deterritorialization where the powers of territorial nation-states are viewed as being eroded by the increased transnational mobility of capital. This dissertation, in contrast, demonstrates how international tourism development-like many other aspects of globalization--can also produce "reterritorialization" characterized by the increased relevance of "place" for global economic activity. With increased globalization firms often seek to locate themselves in specific territories in order to capture what I call locational rents and external economies. In contrast to the dislocating effects of deterritorialization, reterritorialization can increase the political influence of state, societal, and transnational agents able to create localities that generate locational rents and external economies. The dissertation explores how states in the Middle East have promoted reterritorialization through tourism development in an attempt to enhance their control over capital and cultural flows as they promote economic liberalization and the incorporation of their economies into global markets. My fieldwork explored two national case studies with different configurations of territorial control. In Tunisia, I found that centralized state control over the territorially defined resources and institutions driving the reterritorialization process allowed the state to extend its control over transnational capital flows, the local private sector,; (cont.) and the location of tourism development within Tunisia. In Jordan, by contrast, control over tourism spaces has been highly fragmented between rival state organizations, private firms and land holders, non-governmental organizations, and transnational actors such as environmentalists and heritage preservation experts. This situation has required the state to contend with societal resistance, organizational obstacles, and unfavorable bargains with societal actors. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2002.; "February 2002."; Includes bibliographical references (p. 412-441).; This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z