https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141470 2026-04-10T22:23:26Z 2026-04-10T22:23:26Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/144184 2022-08-02T03:45:17Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli This chapter examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the conse- quences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error. ln so doing, we shall draw upon our recent investigations into the long-range causes of international conflict. Our objective, during the past several years, has been to develop systematic procedures for isolating the determinants of international violence. The general approach we have employed is one common to any econometrician concerned with the analysis of time series data, or any statistician examining the properties of small samples. But our applications of these methods are not common to political analysis. Economists, for example, appear to know much more about the nature of market systems, business cycles, inflation, and so forth, than political analysts know about conflict and warfare, arms races, lateral pressure, or international alignments.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141739 2023-08-22T17:36:27Z 2017-07-27T00:00:00Z

The Theory of Lateral Pressure: Highlights of Quantification and Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli The term lateral pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of states, firms, and other entities to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. This chapter presents the core features—assumptions, logic, core variables, and dynamics—and summarizes the quantitative work undertaken to date. Some aspects of the theory analysis are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Initially applied to the causes of war, the theory focuses on the question of: Who does what, when, how, and with what consequences? The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers (i.e., the master variables that shape the profiles of states) through the intervening variables (i.e., aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities), and the outcomes often generate added complexities. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries, driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations, they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics that lead to hostilities, escalation, and eventually conflict and violence. The quantitative analysis of lateral pressure theory consists of six distinct phases. The first phase began with a large-scale, cross- national, multiple equation econometric investigation of the 45 years leading to World War I, followed by a system of simultaneous equations representing conflict dynamics among competing powers in the post–World War II era. The second phase is a detailed econometric analysis of Japan over the span of more than a century and two World Wars. The third phase of lateral pressure involves system dynamics modeling of growth and expansion of states from 1970s to the end of the 20th century and explores the use of fuzzy logic in this process. The fourth phase focuses on the state-based sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to endogenize the natural environment in the study of international relations. The fifth phase presents a detailed ontology of the driving variables shaping lateral pressure and their critical constituents in order to (a) frame their interconnections, (b) capture knowledge on sustainable development, (c) create knowledge management methods for the search, retrieval, and use of knowledge on sustainable development and (d) examine the use of visualization techniques for knowledge display and analysis. The sixth, and most recent, phase of lateral pressure theory and empirical analysis examines the new realities created by the construction of cyberspace and interactions with the traditional international order.

2017-07-27T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli North, Robert C. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141574 2022-05-05T16:00:25Z 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z

In search of peace systems: Scandinavia and the Netherlands, 1870-1970 Choucri, Nazli; North, Robert C.

1972-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141573 2022-05-05T16:00:25Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

From correlation analysis to computer forecasting: The evolution of a research programme in international relations Choucri, Nazli

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Bousfield, N. Pollins, B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141572 2022-05-05T16:26:32Z 1987-01-01T00:00:00Z

Alternative futures: An exercise in forecasting Choucri, Nazli; Bousfield, N.; Pollins, B.

1987-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Pollins, B. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141571 2022-05-05T16:00:25Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

System dynamics forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli; Pollins, B.

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141570 2022-05-05T16:00:25Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

Key issues in international relations forecasting Choucri, Nazli

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Haghseta, Farnaz Mezher, Toufic https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141569 2022-05-05T16:26:52Z 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z

Organizational innovation: Global workflow and institutional e-Networking Choucri, Nazli; Haghseta, Farnaz; Mezher, Toufic

2007-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Goldsmith, Daniel Madnick, Stuart E. Mistree, Dinsha Morrison, J. Bradley Siegel, Michael D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141563 2022-05-05T16:28:23Z 2007-07-01T00:00:00Z

Using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability Choucri, Nazli; Goldsmith, Daniel; Madnick, Stuart E.; Mistree, Dinsha; Morrison, J. Bradley; Siegel, Michael D. The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

2007-07-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Shafei, M. Zaki https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141562 2022-05-05T16:28:41Z 1983-01-01T00:00:00Z

The energy policy project: Petroleum and natural gas in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Shafei, M. Zaki This study is undertaken as part of the Energy and Development Research Program at M.I.T. under the direction of Professor Choucri. It is designed to Contribute to understanding energy-economy interactions in devel­opment and the constraints and opportunities created by the existing geologi­cal and technological configurations of energy systems. Handwritten text: PNAAN766 ISN 32177

1983-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Laird, Michael Meadows, Dennis L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141561 2022-05-05T16:29:00Z 1972-01-01T00:00:00Z

Resource scarcity and foreign policy: A simulation model of international conflict Choucri, Nazli; Laird, Michael; Meadows, Dennis L. This paper describes the initial stages of an interdisciplinary research project designed to trace the effects of domestic resource needs and scarcities in advanced technological societies upon international behavior. Our objective is the development of conceptual tools for disciplined speculation concerning alternative future responses that may be employed by nations faced with resource problems. What follows is a statement of the problem, a description of the research design and methodology used, and a discussion of our preliminary analysis, with the United States as a test case. The investigations reported in this paper were undertaken with the collaboration of Robert C. North, Stanford University. The energy data were compiled a t Stanford University and processed at M.I.T. by Panayiotis Momferratos. The model formulation was undertaken by Michael Laird, and the basic research for resource data by James P. Bennett. An earlier version of this paper was entitled "International Implications of Technological Development and Population Growth," M.I.T., September 1971. We are grateful to Hayward R. Alker for incisive comments and criticisms.

1972-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141516 2022-05-05T16:00:26Z 1978-01-01T00:00:00Z

An assessment of documentation standards for ten computer models of political problems Choucri, Nazli

1978-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Madnick, Stuart E. Siegel, Michael D. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141513 2022-05-05T16:34:43Z 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z

Research initiative to understand & model state stability: Exploiting system dynamics. Choucri, Nazli; Madnick, Stuart E.; Siegel, Michael D. The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ...national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it.” Given current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction – and hence create new threats to the nation’s security. We focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability. Initially, we will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will develop a country model, along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options.

2005-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141512 2022-05-05T16:34:59Z 1985-01-01T00:00:00Z

Domestic energy pricing: Trends and implications for the Arab world Choucri, Nazli Energy use everywhere is tied to population growth, industrialization, expansion of urban centers, and development of industrial and infrastructural facilities. The decade of the 1970s saw dramatic changes in the economic activity and performance of Arab economies. New economic targets were set in place, with new priorities and investment strategies. Energy policy was becoming an important priority for every country in the Arab world. A critical issue in energy policy is that of pricing, that is, determining the appropriate valuation for domestic uses of energy.

1985-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Ross, David S. Meadows, Dennis L. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141502 2022-05-05T16:37:29Z 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z

Towards a forecasting model of energy politics: International Perspectives Choucri, Nazli; Ross, David S.; Meadows, Dennis L. Almost everyone recognizes an energy problem but uncertainties remain about its political and economic implications, both domestic and international. Indeed, there is disagreement on the extent to which it is a crisis. The spectrum of opinion ranges from those who argue the present situation is due largely to shortages of supplies and impending depletion of oil reserves (Akins 1973). to those who maintain the crisis is artificial, created mainly by induced departures from perfect market conditions (Adelman 1972). Both groups agree the United States and the industrialized world face a problem, but the definition and solution of the problem remain much debated.

1976-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141501 2022-05-05T16:37:40Z 1968-01-01T00:00:00Z

Background conditions to the outbreak of the First World War Choucri, Nazli This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of the attributes and capa- bilities of the major European states between the years 1870-1914. When war broke out in the summer of 1914 it was largely unexpected. The bipolarization of Europe into opposing camps-the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance- had been conceived mainly as a precautionary diplomatic measure. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment in some circles was that current conditions and relations between states could not have been better. In the space of six weeks, however, a seemingly localized dispute in the Balkans grew into a full-fledged European conflict, and over succeeding years the greater part of the world became involved. When fighting finally came to an end in 1918, the Austro-Hungarian monarchy was in dissolution, the Kaiser's Germany was on the point of collapse, and the whole world stood at a turning point. The investigations described below are part of a larger study designed to identify and determine the dynamics involved in the outbreak of World War I. This paper is presented as a tentative first report. There are many more analyses to be done with the data. Our intent is not to improve upon the historical accounts of a period which has been ably investigated by distinguished historians such as Sidney Fay and Luigi Albertini, nor to reopen old controversies about national responsibility and war guilt. Rather, the purpose is to focus on dimensions of inter-state behavior that have as yet not been fully examined.

1968-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141500 2022-05-05T16:37:54Z 1973-01-01T00:00:00Z

Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations Choucri, Nazli The apparent neglect of quantitative methodology in political analysis can be explained partly by the absence of a common paradigm or frame of reference for political inquiry and partly by the lack of experience with experimental analysis of empirical data. The absence of general theory poses considerable difficulties for analysis and for specifying the nature of expected relationships or outcomes. For example, without a good theory of war, it is difficult to explain, account for, and predict wars among nations as well as to forecast the probable range of casualties, the extent or duration of violence, geographical scope, and so forth. And the absence of sufficient experience with quantitative analysis poses equally numerous difficulties bearing upon our ability to go beyond purely descriptive modes of inquiry. For example, without sound analytical and computational tools it is difficult to develop empirical models, or simulations, or forecasts of such dynamics. This paper examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and indicate the consequences of faulty analysis, analytical bias, or measurement error.

1973-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141499 2022-05-05T16:38:04Z 1974-01-01T00:00:00Z

Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects Choucri, Nazli The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons with data. In considering the policy implications of forecasts, the researcher must identify a system's manipulables, the costs of manipulations, and the sensitive points. In conclusion, the author notes some critical imperatives for further developments in international relations forecasting.

1974-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141498 2022-05-05T16:38:16Z 1980-06-01T00:00:00Z

The international petroleum exchange model: Reference results and validation Choucri, Nazli The author describes the IPE model and compares its main results with the data for 1970–1978. The model's results are close to the actual consumer-import demand for those years. The model's forecasts of the future demand for oil imports, over the next 20 years, are considerably lower than the forecasts produced by some other studies.

1980-06-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141497 2022-05-05T16:39:37Z 1982-10-01T00:00:00Z

International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective Choucri, Nazli The oil price increases of October 1973 triggered a set of changes in the international system that promise to have continued, long-term effects. This article begins with a review of the major attempts to model the world oil market and provides syntheses of their char acteristics and worldview. The structure of the International Petroleum Exchange Model developed at MIT is then presented, followed by a set of simulations (forecasts) of future changes in petroleum supply and demand associated with alternative price paths. The simulations are also compared with empirical data to provide some insights into the potential accuracy of the forecasts.

1982-10-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Supriya, Lahiri https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141496 2022-05-05T16:40:14Z 1984-08-01T00:00:00Z

Short-run energy-economy interactions in Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Supriya, Lahiri This paper discusses the short-run adjustment mechanism of the Egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil. The effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short-run macroeconomic model with an explicit treatment of energy. The results suggest that a reduction in petroleum use induced by a rise in the price of oil will impose difficult adjustment problems for the economy in the short run in terms of increase in inflation, fall in the share of wage income and sharp output losses. The analysis also indicates that energy demand management through appropriate petroleum pricing strategy cannot bring about desirable impacts on the economy unless efforts are made to reduce cost pressures originating from other energy sectors.

1984-08-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Heye, Christopher Lynch, Michael https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141495 2022-05-05T16:40:27Z 1990-01-01T00:00:00Z

Analyzing oil production in developing countries: A case study of Egypt Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher; Lynch, Michael This article presents a detailed simulation analysis of the domestic oil sector in Egypt; a near-typical, non-OPEC, oil-producing developing country. Egypt is a small producer by international standards, yet significant enough that its oil production is important for the country's economy and under certain conditions, for the international oil market as well. A dynamic computer simulation model that depicts significant characteristics of the country's oil sector is utilized to explore the implications of alternative scenarios for government policies, world oil prices, and geological parameters on patterns of production, exports, and export earnings.

1990-01-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Heye, Christopher https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141494 2022-05-05T16:40:41Z 1990-03-01T00:00:00Z

Simulation models Choucri, Nazli; Heye, Christopher This paper summarizes some basic assumptions and procedures for simulation approaches. A brief discussion of system dynamics is presented. A description of the International Petroleum Exchange Model (IPE) developed at MIT is presented. As a simulation model of the world oil market, IPE shows the interactions, adjustments, and behavior of major actors and agents, and of the underlying supply, demand, and price relationships. Illustrations of model results are presented along with comparison of alternative simulation scenarios.

1990-03-01T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli Electris, C. Goldsmith, D. Mistree, D. Madnick, Stuart E. Morrison, J. B. Siegel, M. D. Sweitzer-Hamilton, M. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/141493 2022-05-05T16:38:42Z 2006-03-04T00:00:00Z

Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics Choucri, Nazli; Electris, C.; Goldsmith, D.; Mistree, D.; Madnick, Stuart E.; Morrison, J. B.; Siegel, M. D.; Sweitzer-Hamilton, M. The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘ loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘ capacity’ to withstand these ‘ loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘ predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘ tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘ tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability.

2006-03-04T00:00:00Z Choucri, Nazli https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105890 2023-08-22T17:35:48Z 2016-11-11T00:00:00Z

The Theory of Lateral Pressure Highlights of Quantification & Empirical Analysis Choucri, Nazli Lateral Pressure refers to any tendency (or propensity) of individuals and societies to expand their activities and exert influence and control beyond their established boundaries, whether for economic, political, military, scientific, religious, or other purposes. Framed by Robert C. North and Nazli Choucri, the theory addresses the sources and consequences of such a tendency. Lateral Pressure theory seeks to explain the relationships between state characteristics and patterns of international behavior. The theory addresses the sources and consequences of transformation and change in international relations and provides a basis for analyzing potential feedback dynamics. To the extent that states expand their activities outside territorial boundaries – driven by a wide range of capabilities and motivations – they are likely to encounter other states similarly engaged. The intersection among spheres of influence is the first step in complex dynamics leading hostilities, escalation, and eventually to conflict and violence. These processes are contingent on the actors’ intents, capabilities, and activities. The causal logic in lateral pressure theory runs from the internal drivers, that is, the master variables that shape the profiles of states -- through the intervening variables, namely, aggregated and articulated demands given prevailing capabilities -- the outcome often generates added complexities. This paper proceeds as follows: First we highlight the basic features of lateral pressure theory, its core components, and their interconnections. Some aspects are more readily quantifiable than others. Some are more consistent with conventional theory in international relations. Others are based on insights and evidence from other areas of knowledge, thus departing from tradition in potentially significant ways. Second, we summarize the phases of empirical investigations and the evolution of theory over time. Third, we return to basics and focus on the refinements of metrics and quantification of the core concepts. All of this pertains to the world, as we have known it prior to the construction of the Internet, the core of cyberspace. Fourth, we then turn briefly to results so far of our o research on lateral pressure in the cyber domain. The Endnote highlights some emerging imperatives.

2016-11-11T00:00:00Z